Florida consumer sentiment edges up in September for the first time in 2026

Following six consecutive months of declines, consumer sentiment in Florida inched up in September, rising three-tenths of a point to 67.7 from a revised figure of 67.4 in August. In contrast, national consumer sentiment declined.

“Consumer sentiment increased slightly in September, halting the downward trend observed since March. However, the three-tenths-of-a-point increase left sentiment essentially unchanged from August. The underlying components moved in opposite directions, with Floridians becoming more optimistic about future economic conditions while their assessments of current conditions deteriorated. In particular, views of personal financial situations compared with a year ago have declined consistently over the past six months. This pessimism about current conditions is consistent with the broader economic environment. Although Florida’s unemployment rate has declined since May, providing an important counterweight, inflation remains elevated and rising energy prices are putting additional pressure on household budgets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, while borrowing costs for households remain high,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Among the five components that make up the index, two decreased and three increased.

Floridians’ views about current economic conditions turned more pessimistic in September. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago fell 1.8 points from, 62.8 to 61. However, the decline was not shared across all demographic groups, as views improved among men and people younger than 60. Similarly, opinions on whether now is a good time to buy a major household item, such as an appliance or furniture, fell nine-tenths of a point, from 59.5 to 58.6. This decline was shared across all sociodemographic groups.

In contrast, the three components related to Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions improved. Expectations of personal financial situations one year from now showed the largest change, rising 2.4 points from 79.9 to 82.3. However, expectations declined among women and people younger than 60. Expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next year increased five-tenths of a point, from 65.4 to 65.9. Similarly, expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose nine-tenths of a point, from 69.6 to 70.5. Despite the overall improvement, these changes varied across sociodemographic groups. Expectations declined among men and people younger than 60 for both the short- and long-term national outlook. In addition, expectations about the short-term outlook declined among people with an annual income more than $50,000, while expectations about the long-term outlook declined among people with an annual income under $50,000.

“Although consumer sentiment edged up in September, several important economic developments occurred or intensified during the second half of the month and may not yet be fully reflected in this month’s reading. The Fed raised interest rates in mid-September for the first time in more than three years, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Mortgage rates also moved above 7%, further increasing borrowing costs for households. At the same time, energy prices remained elevated, with diesel prices reaching a record high in Florida during the second half of September. These developments could place additional pressure on household budgets and consumer confidence,” said Sandoval.

“Looking ahead, elevated gasoline prices will continue to put pressure on household budgets, while higher diesel and transportation costs could gradually pass through to other prices. As long as disruptions in the Middle East and refining constraints persist, energy prices are likely to remain elevated, potentially slowing progress on inflation, keeping borrowing costs high, and weighing on consumer confidence in the months ahead,” Sandoval added.

Conducted Aug. 1 through Sept. 24, the survey reflects responses from 733 individuals reached by cellphone who represent a demographic cross section of Florida.

Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group, and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and prevention of duplicate records.

The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.

Details of this month’s survey can be found at bebr.ufl.edu/florida-consumer-sentiment/.