Florida consumer sentiment falls for a fifth consecutive month in 2026

Consumer sentiment in Florida declined for the fifth consecutive month in July, falling 2.1 points to 69.3 from a revised figure of 71.4 in June. In contrast, national consumer sentiment increased.

“With July's decline, consumer sentiment has reached its lowest reading since December 2023, following five consecutive months of deterioration. The last time confidence declined for such a prolonged period was in 2022, when consumer sentiment fell for seven consecutive months as inflation accelerated rapidly and ultimately reached its highest level since 1981. While the current situation is far less severe, the comparison underscores the important role inflation continues to play in shaping consumer confidence. Although recent inflation data showed some moderation, price pressures have remained above the Federal Reserve's target and intensified during the first half of 2026 following the energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, many Floridians continue to face pressure on their household budgets, contributing to the decline in consumer sentiment,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

All five components that make up the index declined in July.

Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions weakened in July. Views of personal financial situations compared with a year ago fell 1.7 points from 65.2 to 63.5. Similarly, opinions on whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as furniture or appliances, decreased 1.8 points from 63.6 to 61.8. These views differed across sociodemographic groups, with men reporting more favorable assessments of their current financial situation, as well as people 60 and older and people with an annual income $50,000 or more expressing more favorable views about their spending intentions.

Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions also deteriorated. Expectations for personal financial situations a year from now experienced the steepest drop, falling 3.8 points from 83.9 to 80.1. Expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next year declined 1.3 points from 69.8 to 68.5. Meanwhile, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years decreased 2.2 points from 74.7 to 72.5. These views were broadly shared across sociodemographic groups. However, people 60 and older reported more optimistic views regarding their financial situation and about the long-term economic outlook. In addition, people with an annual income of $50,000 or more expressed more favorable expectations about the long-term outlook, and men reported more positive expectations regarding the short-term economic outlook.

“Recent economic developments present a mixed picture for Florida households. Gas prices dropped slightly from their spring peak as Middle East tensions moderated, but they ticked back up during July. At the same time, Florida's job market continues to underperform the nation, with the state's unemployment rate remaining above the national rate despite continued job growth. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, and national economic growth remained modest at 1.5%. Taken together, these factors suggest that while the economy is still growing, many households remain cautious as they navigate elevated prices, relatively high borrowing costs, and a tougher job market,” said Sandoval.

“Looking ahead, consumer confidence could begin to recover if inflationary pressures continue to ease and Florida's labor market stabilizes. However, the outlook remains uncertain. Renewed tensions in the Middle East could once again place upward pressure on energy prices, slowing progress on inflation and reinforcing the pessimism reflected in recent consumer sentiment,” Sandoval added.

Conducted June 1 through July 30, the UF study reflects the responses of 478 individuals who were reached on cellphones representing a demographic cross-section of Florida.

Data is weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and preventing duplicate records.

The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, meaning a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.

Details of this month’s survey can be found at bebr.ufl.edu/florida-consumer-sentiment/.