As holiday shopping season nears, UF experts warn retail theft is growing more sophisticated

The Loss Prevention Research Council and its affiliated UF researchers offer evidence-based insights as retailers report rising crime and safety concerns

With the busiest shopping season of the year approaching, new findings from the National Retail Federation’s Impact of Retail Theft and Violence 2025 report — developed by the University of Florida’s SaferPlaces Lab and the Loss Prevention Research Council — show retailers are facing increasingly complex and technology-driven threats. UF researchers say early preparation, better data and stronger collaboration will be essential as stores brace for heavier foot traffic and heightened safety risks.

Despite public reports that retail theft is decreasing, Read Hayes, Ph.D., a UF research scientist and director of the LPRC at UF Innovate, said retailer surveys tell a different story: Incidents of shoplifting, organized retail crime, online fraud and other external theft continue to rise, even as some law enforcement statistics appear flat or declining. The gap, he said, reflects how much crime goes unreported or unrecorded.

“Retailers have always had a difficult time reporting much of their crime, and if you look only at police data, like calls for service or arrests, it can look like retail crime is flat or even slightly down,” he said. “But when we survey retailers, who are the actual crime victims, they consistently report year-over-year increases in theft and violence.”

Criminal groups are also becoming more sophisticated. Hayes said offenders are increasingly using technology to defeat protective systems, disrupt cameras and identify vulnerable stores. They also rely heavily on social media platforms such as TikTok and Reddit to coordinate attacks and share tactics.

“It’s a little disconcerting how much criminals rely on social media now to scout stores, map out easy targets, learn from each other or just plain brag about how they did it,” he said.

LPRC scientists monitor social media signals to help retailers and law enforcement understand emerging threats — not in real time, Hayes said, but to help build best practices organizations can use to defend themselves.

Criminals continue to focus on high-demand items such as branded apparel and footwear, prompting retailers to rethink how those products are displayed and secured. Hayes said many companies are testing new approaches to better protect vulnerable merchandise without driving customers away.

One example is automated self-service systems for locked items, where customers can retrieve a product by having a code sent to their phone without waiting for a store employee.

Safety remains retailers’ top concern, Hayes said. LPRC’s latest report, developed in collaboration with the security technology company Verkada, found that frontline retail workers report feeling less safe than ever, a trend that typically intensifies during the holiday rush. Rising incidents of in-store violence, limited law enforcement support in some areas and increased guest-related confrontations are pushing retailers to reassess how they protect both employees and customers.

“Nothing is more important than protecting the frontline retail associates who keep this industry running,” Hayes said. “This report helps reinforce what retailers need to do to ensure those workers feel safe.”

LPRC teams are also studying ways to improve safety beyond store walls, testing parking lot technologies, including license plate readers and flashing deterrent systems designed to discourage potential offenders and reassure law-abiding shoppers. At the federal level, Hayes said he and partners across the country are urging Congress to pass a bill to address organized retail crime and establish a centralized platform for reporting retail theft threats.

As the holiday season approaches, Hayes said the need for evidence-based solutions has never been clearer.

“Retailers are under pressure to keep their stores safe, welcoming and competitive,” Hayes said. “The more we can understand offender behavior, customer expectations and emerging technologies, the better we can help retailers, communities and law enforcement reduce harm.”

The LPRC, headquartered at UF Innovate, brings together more than 200 major retailers, technology companies and public safety agencies to conduct research that strengthens store safety, reduces loss and enhances the customer experience.

Photo above: In the SafePlaces lab at UF, Read Hayes and his team simulate retail environments to help identify opportunities to deter would-be criminals.