UF Economists: Florida Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly

June 30, 1999

GAINESVILLE — Consumer confidence in Florida lost one point in June from the previous month, reflecting doubts about personal finances and the national economy, University of Florida economists report.

The preliminary index for June fell to 104, said Chris McCarty, survey director with UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Despite the drop, the index remains only four points below the record high of 108 set in February, he said.

“After eight years of uninterrupted expansion of Florida’s economy, confidence remains high,” said UF economist Dave Denslow. “Floridians this summer feel the same as they did last summer. Their personal finances have improved, the future looks bright and it’s a good time to shop.”

“Although there are some indications that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates over the next few months, Florida’s consumers are still very optimistic about the health of the economy,” McCarty said. “Consumers don’t perceive inflation to be much of a threat in the near term. With interest rates low and inflation in check, retail sales remain brisk, up one percent from April and 7.8 percent from May 1998.”

The biggest declines occurred in the component measuring perceptions of personal finances a year from now, which fell from 110 to 106, and that measuring the performance of the U.S. economy over the next year, which dropped from 105 to 98.

The bureau conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for June was calculated from 498 responses. The margin of error for the index is 3 percent.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring consumers’ mood toward buying. Although other economic indicators also are predictors of buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner than those indicators.