“Most economists think the recession is over, but people are afraid to spend money as unemployment keeps going up, which creates problems for every sector of the real estate market,” said Timothy Becker, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, which conducts the quarterly survey.

Florida’s unemployment rate climbed to 11 percent in September, its highest level since 1975, Becker said. That, along with a large number of foreclosures, places Florida near the bottom of states expected to recover from the economic downturn, he said.

“Florida was the first one into the recession and it’s probably going to be the last one out,” he said.

The latest survey finds commercial real estate the weakest sector of the economy, with no improvement expected until the job market turns around, Becker said. As retailers struggle, they are asking landlords for rent abatements, and instead of expanding, are deciding not to renew leases and even close stores, he said.

“Discount retailers like the Dollar Store and Dollar Tree seem to be weathering the hard times, but in most cases retailers are not doing well,” he said.

In some cases, though, vacant storefronts may be a sign that some retailers have departed for fancier venues, Becker said. Retailers with money on hand are able to find better locations at better rents than were available in the past, he said.

“One of our respondents said that the old adage of ‘location, location, location’ really means something right now in the ability to lease at premiere locations,” he said. “It’s the second-tier properties that are struggling.”

The state’s high unemployment rate also has taken its toll on the housing sector, Becker said. Although the foreclosure market is “going gangbusters” right now because of extremely low prices, total sales of single-family homes will probably decline as people’s uncertainty about whether they will continue to have jobs grows, he said.

Survey respondents expressed fear about another large wave of housing foreclosures if more people lose jobs and fall behind on their mortgage payments, Becker said. “There is a lot of speculation that there could be a double-dip recession, where we recover just a little bit and then go back into recession again,” he said.

An $8,000 tax credit available to first-time home buyers is scheduled to be phased out after November, Becker said. The foreseeable end to that government initiative, along with the high unemployment rate and large number of foreclosures, has resulted in fewer new homes, he said.

“Builders are being very selective about what they build,” he said. “They don’t want to get into a situation where they have large inventories again.”

One positive finding in the survey was increasing optimism about one’s own business outlook, Becker said. Respondents believe that an expected wave of foreclosures in the commercial real estate market will lower depressed prices even further, offering tremendous opportunities for future investment, he said.

Although the outlook for readily available capital has not improved as banks continue their reluctance to lend money, survey respondents believe that foreign investment may provide some relief, Becker said. With the favorability of exchange rates for the Euro against the dollar and the availability of desirable commercial property at low prices, international investors are starting to enter Florida’s real estate market, he said.

“Everybody thinks that Florida will rebound because we have so much going for us – the sun shines every day and there are a lot of advantages to living here, he said. “Foreign investors see that too and believe their prospects are good for long term investments.”

Until some of the uncertainties in the marketplace are resolved, though, including the fate of foreclosures and availability of financing, it is unlikely that confidence in Florida’s real estate markets will make steady gains, Becker said.

“As one of our respondents put it, ‘Uncertainty is the most dangerous market condition delaying recovery,’” he said. “While there are going to be improvements some quarters and declines other quarters, we’re mostly going to be bouncing along the bottom for awhile.”

The quarterly report is the most extensive survey of Florida professional real estate analysts and investors conducted on an ongoing basis. The 268 participants in the most recent survey represent 13 of the state’s urban regions and up to 15 property types.

“Florida leads the nation in bicyclists killed in traffic crashes, even outpacing California, which has about twice its population,” said Dan Connaughton, a professor in UF’s department of Tourism, Recreation and Sport Management and the program’s director. “Other than the motor vehicle, there is no other commercial product that leaves more children injured than bicycles.”

Statistics from the Florida Department of Transportation show that 118 bicyclists were killed and 4,380 were injured in the state in 2008, he said.

About 90 percent of children’s deaths on bicycles occur when they dart into traffic from a driveway or when they cycle through a stop sign, Connaughton said. The vast majority of bicycle fatalities result from head injuries, with some studies estimating that the simple act of properly wearing a bicycle helmet reduces the risk of head injury by up to 85 percent, he said.

The mission of the Florida Traffic and Bicycle Safety Education Program is to reduce injuries and fatalities by teaching children the lifelong skills needed to be competent, as well as predictable, cyclists and pedestrians.

Connaughton received a three-year contract from the Florida Department of Transportation’s Safety Office to administer statewide workshops to “teach the teachers” bicycle and traffic safety tips they can pass on to their students. Using curriculums specifically designed for elementary, middle and high schools, Connaughton works with certified cycling instructors around the state in delivering the free workshops. Workshops are currently scheduled in Alachua County on Thursday, with others to be held in Pinellas and Lee counties later this fall.

For younger children, the curriculum covers such basics as safely crossing streets, traffic signals and related laws, and school bus safety, said Connaughton, who is an expert in sport safety and risk management. The curriculum also addresses traffic and bicycle laws, helmet importance and correct use, how to perform a bicycle safety inspection, how to navigate a bicycle while sharing the road, and other traffic and bicycle safety skills, he said.

“We feel it’s extremely important to educate our youth at a young age,” he said. “Our hope is that as they become more knowledgeable and experienced pedestrians and bicyclists, that some of these skills will translate into them becoming safer motor vehicle drivers.”

According to the National Safety Council, the total cost of bicycle injuries and deaths is almost $5.4 billion a year, Connaughton said.

“Besides saving lives, this program has a tremendous impact on the state’s economy,” Connaughton said. “By cutting down on the number of cars on the road, we reduce traffic congestion as well as our dependence on fuel and the environmental costs associated with it. And with the rise in obesity, getting young people to be more active eliminates a substantial number of health problems and the costs that go with them.”

The program works with Safe Routes to School programs throughout Florida to encourage more children to walk or bike safely to school and ties in with the goals of the Florida Department of Transportation’s Pedestrian/Bicycle Program, he said.

Bicycle use has increased in the United States as more people recognize the importance of physical activity and as rising gas prices make it a popular commuting alternative, Connaughton said. “Along with the greening of America, there are more people on bicycles than ever before,” he said.

The success of American Lance Armstrong in winning the Tour de France seven years in a row also has created an interest in bicycling, particularly the sport of racing, he said.

The program and its instructors also train law enforcement personnel and recreation leaders to teach bicycle safety in their local communities. Future plans call for developing a university curriculum to educate college students about traffic and bicycle safety in Florida, he said.

The program estimates that each trained teacher passes the information on to 100 children per year. The training workshops cover outside on-bike skill practice and classroom instruction with curriculum overviews, including interactive videos and activity worksheets.

School districts interested in hosting traffic and bicycle safety training workshops can contact the program at 352-392-4042, ext. 1370. More information about the Florida Traffic and Bicycle Safety Education Program can be found at: http://www.hhp.ufl.edu/safety/index.html.

“Consumers are more optimistic this month about their current personal finances and less optimistic about the U.S. economy in both the short and long term,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “They remain bullish on buying opportunities and are likely to be even more optimistic when they see the drastically lower prices in the coming months from retailers trying to boost holiday sales among the most cautious U.S. consumers since the Great Depression.”

However, as the holidays approach, most forecasts predict no growth in retail sales over what turned out to be an extremely disappointing 2008 season, McCarty said.

“Floridians should prepare for more bad news through the first quarter of 2010,” he said. “If retail sales growth is as low as expected, sales tax revenues will not meet expectations.”

With decreasing revenues and increasing costs, the state could see a $2.6 billion budget deficit, McCarty said. “That will mean increased taxes and fees and certainly more cost-cutting by the Florida Legislature as the spring session unfolds,” he said.

September’s final consumer confidence index dropped two points from the initial reported reading of 74 when an additional week of interviews were included in survey results at the end of the month, McCarty said. Florida’s consumer confidence index had slowly inched up from 67 in July to 71 in August and 72 in September before stalling in October, he said.

“The revision downward and the flat reading this month is more in line with what we had been expecting,” McCarty said. “Given the economic environment in Florida and the U.S., the preliminary reading of 74 last month seemed high.”

Two of this month’s five components increased while three declined. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items rose three points to 83 and perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose three points to 45. Expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell three points to 71, while expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell three points to 81. Perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell one point to 80.

Florida’s economic picture remains mixed, when housing, the stock market and retailing are all taken into consideration, McCarty said.

“Home prices in most Florida markets have held steady over the past few months although they are down an average of 43 percent from the peak values reached in June 2006,” he said. “It is unclear how much of this stability is due to activity from first-time home buyers who took advantage of the $8,000 tax credit due to expire Dec. 1.”

The most recent mortgage applications survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a large decline in applications for both new mortgages and refinancing, suggesting that sales may fall in the coming months without the tax rebate, McCarty said. Potentially, this could decrease home prices even more, even though prices are already down to 2002-2003 levels, he said.

In other bad news, unemployment in Florida has risen to 11 percent, McCarty said. With retail sales remaining quite low, that will likely contribute to further unemployment in many of the state’s metro areas as the holiday season unfolds, he said.

And as unemployment rises, the number of Floridians on Medicaid will continue to climb, increasing costs to taxpayers, he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for October was conducted from 408 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year, he said.

In Florida, one of the main suppliers is Richard Raid, a professor with the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

Owls can’t chew, so they rip prey apart with their beaks and swallow it in big chunks. The pellets are blobs of undigested fur and bones the birds regurgitate after a meal.

Raid gathers 3,000 to 5,000 pellets each year from farms in the Everglades Agricultural Area. He leads workshops at schools, clubs and museums where he shows children how to carefully pick apart the pellets, identify the creatures inside, and arrange the bones into complete skeletons.

The experience may sound cringe-inducing, but it teaches children about biology and predator-prey relationships, says Raid, a plant pathologist at UF’s Everglades Research and Education Center in Belle Glade.

“I have an expression: With kids, if cute is good, gross is better,” he said. “The more unpleasant you can make something, the more it interests them.”

Raid says teachers often tell him his workshop was the most memorable lesson of the year.

“That’s gratifying,” he said.

But becoming a pellet magnate wasn’t something Raid set out to do. Instead, it developed from another project he’s pursued for more than a decade.

Raid helps farmers in the Everglades Agricultural Area install owl nesting boxes, because the birds provide low-cost, sustainable rodent control. The pests, particularly cotton rats and marsh rabbits, cause up to $30 million in damage each year to the area’s 700,000 acres of sugar cane, rice and vegetable crops.

A nesting pair of barn owls can eat 1,000 rodents per year. The area now has hundreds of nesting boxes and some of the highest barn-owl concentrations in the country, Raid says.

Along the way, he realized there was a demand for owl pellets, so Raid started gathering and sterilizing them and giving them to local teachers. These days his supply goes partly to educators. The rest are sold to biological supply dealers who pay about 50 cents per pellet, money Raid uses to support the program.

Nationwide, owl pellet gathering is worth perhaps $2 million to $3 million per year, but it’s growing at 25 to 30 percent annually, says Chris Anderson, owner of Owl Brand Discovery Kits in Portland, Ore.

Anderson’s company, founded in 1996, employs 12 full-time gatherers and ships at least a quarter million owl pellets each year, he said. They gather owl pellets from about 1,000 sites in Western states, mainly on private land.

“It’s very relationship driven,” Anderson said. “You’re asking to poke around someone’s property.”

And the job presents some unique challenges.

“I’ve had floors fall out from underneath me in old, abandoned houses,” he said. “I’ve been dive-bombed by owls.”

As raptors go, barn owls are fairly docile, Raid says, usually preferring to flee when people approach their nests. But he adds, “I’ve had a talon or two come in contact with me.”

The pellets are usually retrieved from nesting boxes, or places owls roost, such as old barns and pump houses. A barn owl can expel two or three pellets each day. The best time for gathering is in the spring and fall, because there’s little rain and pellets stay intact long enough to dry out. Here, fresh is not best, Raid says. Pellets less than 24 hours old are messy.

“For those I definitely wear gloves,” he said. “They’re the consistency of a big wad of chewing tobacco that’s just been spit out.”

The mandarin hybrid — a mix of the sweet Clementine and the colorful, bell-shaped Minneola — has a rich taste and strong aroma, said UF Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences plant breeder Fred Gmitter.

The new sweet-tart fruit may be best described as a mandarin with a tangy punch.

“Many old-timers in citrus have said this is the best-tasting citrus they’ve ever had,” Gmitter said.

The fruit, which has a patent pending and is also known as LB8-9, has been in the works since 1985.

Mark McLellan, IFAS’ dean for research, said he believes the time that went into breeding this variety will be worthwhile.

“Sugar Belle is positioned in a unique market window, and its flavor characteristics are expected to make this variety a consumer favorite,” he said. “We’re very excited to offer it on behalf of the university.”

Recently, Florida Foundation Seed Producers Inc., a direct support organization of UF, awarded an exclusive U.S. license to the New Varieties Development and Management Corporation.

Funded by the Florida Citrus Commission, the not-for-profit corporation was set up in 2005
to help assure Florida growers access to new patented citrus varieties, manage new varieties and direct resources to citrus breeding research.

The corporation was granted the exclusive license for the fruit through the university’s Invitation to Negotiate process, designed to benefit everyone from IFAS to citrus growers.

“It’s becoming more common for grower-backed organizations to help monitor the markets for growers and ensure that everyone has a chance to be successful,” said John Beuttenmuller, the intellectual property and licensing director for Florida Foundation Seed Producers, which led the ITN process.

In that process, a company is selected to deliver new cultivars to the public. In return, the company pays royalties back to the Florida Foundation Seed Producers and the Florida Agricultural Experiment Station, to be reinvested in breeding and development programs.

Sugar Belle is a unique variety, said the corporation’s executive director, Peter Chaires. He believes it will make a big splash in the $52 million specialty citrus market.

Chaires describes its flavor almost like one would describe a fine wine.

“It has a flavor that takes it to the top of the show wherever it goes. It’s got a very, very deep flavor,” he said. “I don’t want to say it’s rich, but it’s a very deep, complex flavor.”

Despite strong ties to the citrus industry, UF has never before released a citrus cultivar developed solely by its scientists — likely because citrus breeding is an excruciatingly slow endeavor. The average time for new citrus — from creation to its commercial release — can be up to 20 years.

And in this case, what became the UF’s inaugural citrus variety could just as easily have been plowed under.

Gmitter, who arrived at UF’s Citrus Research and Education Center in Lake Alfred as an assistant professor in 1985, was a young plant breeder desperate for citrus trees to work with. After locating a small tract of trees left by a retired professor, Gmitter went for a look.

“I went out in early November of my first year … This one tree had beautiful, bright orange fruit. The best citrus I’d ever eaten in my life,” Gmitter said. Those trees were used to create his new cultivar.

UF officials hope Sugar Belle will be as lucky when it comes to reaching consumers — which could be as early as this year, in some markets.

The fruit matures early, so it should be a good fit for the December holiday market, Chaires said. It can be grown in a manner to produce low-seeded fruit. And with his organization keeping tabs on how the fruit fares in groves and the economics of the citrus market, he believes the new fruit has the potential to be a big hit.

“Every time we’ve tested it with different groups, it’s been wildly popular,” he said.

UF Tech Connect received the Award of Excellence in Technology Commercialization from the University Economic Development Association. The center reported helping client companies generate more than $86.9 million in private investments and create more than 77 jobs in Fiscal Year 2008.

UF Tech Connect was one of three finalists, along with the University of South Florida and the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development.

“We are thrilled to be recognized for our contribution to the regional and state economy,” said Chris Brown, UF Tech Connect coordinator, who accepted the award at the 2009 Summit of the University Economic Development Association Oct. 11-13 in San Antonio.

“The UF Tech Connect program plays an important role in bringing together UF faculty, entrepreneurs and investors,” said Jane Muir, director of UF Tech Connect. “We’re honored to be recognized as a leader in the creation of high-tech companies and jobs in the state.”

UF Tech Connect is at the pulse-point of the region’s high-tech startup activity and serves as a magnet for entrepreneurs and investors seeking new opportunities. The center also develops new programs and sponsors events that foster new business creation.

“The UF Tech Connect program plays an important role in helping to commercialize university discoveries by helping create technology-based startup companies,” said Win Phillips, UF vice president for research.

Established in 1976, the University Economic Development Association focuses on the nexus between higher education institutions and economic development partners. Many EDA-funded University Centers choose to join this professional organization for a number of reasons, including UEDA’s efforts to:

• promote the role of higher education in economic development;
• provide valuable training and networking opportunities to members; and
• increase the effectiveness of, and the appreciation for, higher education in regional and national economic development strategy.

To learn more about UEDA go to http://www.universityeda.org/.

Headquartered at the University of Florida Office of Technology Licensing, UF Tech Connect was created as a partnership between UF and the U.S. Economic Development Administration to provide a venue for bringing together the necessary elements to create companies.

As the University of Florida’s main commercialization center, OTL has in-depth experience in technology management and commercialization. For more information about UF Tech Connect, visit http://www.otl.ufl.edu/ or contact Chris Brown, coordinator, at 352-846-1840.

“The economic benefits of an advancement like this in a health care field are tremendous, particularly in a state like Florida where there are so many elderly and people with hearing impairments,” said Alice Holmes, a professor in UF’s Department of Communicative Disorders at the College of Public Health and Health Professions. “If you develop a hearing loss, you may end up having to retire early or go on disability. By keeping people functioning in society, it has all sort of positive outcomes.”

At the suggestion of one of Holmes’ patients at UF’s hearing clinic, who was severely hearing impaired, she and other UF researchers pioneered a way to program digital hearing aid devices and cochlear or inner ear implants, based on speech sounds such as “aba,” “ata” and “asha” instead of tonal beeps. People with hearing loss can now hear spoken words much more clearly and their hearing aid devices can be adjusted in a fraction of the time, Holmes said.

“I really think we have the possibility of revolutionizing how digital hearing devices can be programmed,” said Holmes, who collaborated with Rahul Shrivastav, another UF professor in communicative disorders, and Purvis Bedenbaugh, a former UF neuroscience professor. “Our next step is looking into the possibility of accomplishing the same thing with cell phones.”

After UF researchers received a patent, Lee Krause, Holmes’ patient whose training in computer engineering led him to propose the idea of using speech sounds, started the company Audigence Inc. in Melbourne to develop and market the software.

Audigence, which now has 12 employees, is licensing the technology to a hearing aid company in Orlando, Holmes said. “We’re hoping to have the product launched in October at the national meeting of the Academy of Dispensing Audiology in Clearwater,” she said.

In addition, a major clinical trial is now under way with an international hearing aid company that could result in another licensing agreement within the next year, she said.

The arrival of these products on the market will offer economic benefits to audiology clinics as well as improving the lives of their patients, Holmes said. By being able to program hearing aids quicker with better results, audiologists can see greater numbers of patients in a shorter period of time, she said.

An estimated 31 million Americans have hearing loss that could be helped by some form of amplification, yet only about 20 percent of them use hearing aids, Holmes said. Besides the stigma attached to hearing aids, many people who should wear them give up because they are adjusted incorrectly, she said.

“Hearing loss, particularly in the older population, is second only to arthritis as a permanent disability,” she said.

The problem with the traditional method for programming hearing aid devices is it relies on standardized formulas developed for the average patient, while the UF technology customizes the tuning to a patient’s individual hearing deficiencies, Holmes said. Hearing loss occurs at different pitches, which vary from one person to the next, she said.

Krause, chief executive officer and president of Audigence, had lost so much hearing that he needed a cochlear implant, an electrical device that is attached in one’s head and stimulates auditory nerves. Krause continued to have difficulty understanding human speech, especially on the phone, but that changed when it was programmed by speech sounds, Holmes said.

“We do conference calls probably every other day and he leads the calls,” she said. “I almost think he hears better than I do at times.”

Oysters are typically considered safest to eat in cooler months (September through April) because the shellfish-infecting bacteria in the genus Vibrio flourish best in warm temperatures.

Even in the “r” months, slurping an oyster opens some people to infection from these bacteria, which can cause fever, nausea, abdominal pain, diarrhea and has even led to finger amputation when it’s given a chance to penetrate a cut or skin lesion.

However, a new quick and inexpensive diagnostic test developed by DuPont Qualicon and refined by UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences could make weeding out pathogen-loaded oysters much more practical and efficient. Oysters are a $14 million industry in the Sunshine State, according to the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

The test is based on a technology dubbed “quantitative polymerase chain reaction,” or QPCR diagnostics. Given a small sampling of oyster, shrimp or ahi tuna, the system tracks genetic material found in three harmful species of Vibrio by amplifying their DNA into large amounts that are easily detected.

This is the first time this technology could be used in detecting pathogens in seafood on an industrial scale. So, after initially developing the basic lab-bench test, DuPont turned to UF to prepare it for commercial use and regulatory approval.

“Whether you have raw oysters or if you’re trying to validate some sort of treatment method, the old way of testing these bacteria in oysters just isn’t very practical because it’s pricy and takes about a week,” said Anita Wright, a UF food science professor whose Florida Sea Grant work is validating and expanding applications of the new test for seafood processing and research purposes.

This USDA-funded research evaluates treatments such as freezing, high pressure, irradiation, or mild heating, and is funded by the Florida Gulf Coast Oyster Industry Council.

Wright will present findings from her work at the Oct. 17-23 biennial meeting of the Interstate Shellfish Sanitation Conference, followed by a workshop to demonstrate the methodology. Her findings will also be published in the next issue of the American Organization of Analytical Chemists.

The ISSC is a shellfish regulatory cooperation that will determine if the test is reliable enough to be used industrywide. If approved, the test could be an especially big boon for oyster harvesters in the Gulf of Mexico, the source of a third of all U.S. oysters.

Warmer water temperatures and factors such as pollution make Vibrio species a major concern for Gulf-harvested shellfish. Forty percent or more of Gulf oysters carry these pathogens in the “non-r” months, according to the FDA.

The gift to the Florida Museum of Natural History from Dr. William and Nadine McGuire of Wayzata, Minn., is valued at more than $41 million, and also includes funding for curation of the Lepidoptera collection, ongoing taxonomic and biodiversity related research, training of scientists and publication of books and relevant papers. The gift brings the number of specimens in UF’s collection to more than 9 million, one of the world’s largest.

“It is important that both the world’s scientific community and the general public recognize that one of the compelling issues of the early 21st century is the global threat to the present diversity of life on earth,” Bill McGuire said. “It is our belief that this threat to biodiversity demands a stepped-up educational and research effort on the part of universities and governments worldwide.”

UF President Bernie Machen welcomed the McGuires’ gift and said it speaks volumes about the university’s place in environmental studies.

“The McGuires’ support of biodiversity and Lepidoptera research at UF helps solidify the university’s major commitment to understanding and preserving biodiversity and the environment,” Machen said. “This private sector support of global issues is the mark of true, selfless philanthropy.”

The Florida Museum of Natural History houses the McGuire Center for Lepidoptera and Biodiversity, named for the McGuires after previous gifts. McGuire Center Director Thomas Emmel said this “unparalleled and unique” gift includes butterflies from every continent except Antarctica, and from geographic sites no longer accessible to scientists.

“The Florida Museum and UF are extremely fortunate that Bill McGuire, who has a lifelong interest in Lepidoptera, knew and recognized the importance of biodiversity and the scientific value of assembling comprehensive collections for taxonomic and other research uses,” Emmel said. “It will take years to completely curate this collection, but we know it contains hundreds, and possibly more than 1,000, species new to science.”

Emmel said Lepidoptera research is critical to the study of the world’s ecosystems because butterflies are good flagship species to assess environmental health.

“An important aspect of the gift is the recognition that the University of Florida now offers the best training and research center in the world for students, postdoctoral fellows and professionals in the many fields that will be using these collections as a database for biodiversity education and research,” Emmel said. “The specimens in the collection represent thousands of rare species, many from locations now destroyed by urban development or rainforest clearing.”

The gift of 2.2 million specimens includes butterflies and moths accumulated during the past 50 years by leading taxonomists, collectors and field biologists throughout the world. It also contains thousands of “type” specimens from which new species were described by specialists as far back as the late 18th and early 19th centuries.

“Many of the specimens are irreplaceable samples of extinct species and populations, or were collected from localities where the butterflies no longer live,” said Florida Museum Director Douglas Jones. “The long series of individuals of many species in this collection will allow researchers to study population and genetic variability so important to biodiversity research, unlike the ‘Noah’s ark’ approach of one male and one female seen in some collections. Students and scientists worldwide will visit the museum to work with this unique resource and the incredible database it provides.”

Many ecologists worldwide now use butterfly and moth species as indicators for the overall biodiversity of an ecosystem or plant and animal community.

“Like canaries warning miners of dangerous gases in coal mines, the Lepidoptera are particularly sensitive to poisons in the environment, such as pesticides or heavy metals,” Emmel said. “They are also good indicators of the impact of climate change and global warming on the survival and distribution of animals and plants.”

Although the McGuires did not attend UF, they have a history of strong support for the university. Their earlier contributions include a $4.2 million gift in 2000 for construction of the Lepidoptera facilities at the museum and a live butterfly rainforest exhibit; $3 million to establish the McGuire Center for Lepidoptera and Biodiversity in 2002; and $2.5 million to complete construction of a theater and dance facility on the UF campus in 2004.

Now, scientists with the University of Florida and several other institutions have been awarded a three-year, $1.4 million National Science Foundation grant to research transmission of the virus, known as PaV1.

The research should answer many lingering questions about the spread and geographic distribution of the pathogen, and could lead to management strategies and new methods for identifying infected lobsters, said Don Behringer, an assistant professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

One of the main issues to be investigated: whether the virus is dispersed long distances by lobster larvae, which float hundreds of miles during their first months. Infected spiny lobsters have been found in far-flung places, including the Florida Keys and parts of Mexico, Belize and St. Croix.

“This project will give us insight into how pathogens are spread in the marine environment,” said Behringer, a co-discoverer of the virus. “Anything we can do to understand how the disease spreads, and how we might limit its spread, has implications for management of the disease.”

If the study confirms that PaV1 is spread by lobster larvae, that would have implications for other species and other diseases, because many marine animals go through a free-floating larval stage, said Mark Butler, a professor with Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va.

During the project, researchers will examine possible forms of virus transmission, the virus’ effects on lobsters, and factors influencing local disease outbreaks, Butler said. They will also hold workshops for fishermen and resource managers in Florida and the Caribbean.

The virus was discovered in 1999 by Behringer, Butler and Jeffrey Shields with the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. Many of the early findings regarding PaV1 epidemiology came while the team was working at the Keys Marine Laboratory located on Long Key. This work showed that the disease primarily kills juvenile spiny lobsters, though some become infected without apparent harm.

The PaV1 virus attacks blood cells and tissues, causing lobsters to become listless and solitary, Behringer said. Most eventually die from metabolic depletion, a condition characterized by loss of energy.

Beginning with the 2000-2001 lobster season, harvest declined approximately 30 percent from previous harvest years and has yet to rebound, said John Hunt, a longtime lobster biologist and program manager with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

Hunt said he believes the virus is a likely cause of the reduction.

Florida produces more than 90 percent of the nation’s spiny lobster; in 2007 the harvest was about 3.8 million pounds, with a dockside value of $27 million, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. Recreational lobster diving is also a significant tourist industry.

The Caribbean spiny lobster is found in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean, from Bermuda to Brazil, Behringer said.

In the United States, spiny lobster represents less than 10 percent of national lobster production, with Maine lobster accounting for 90 percent or more, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Worldwide, Maine and spiny lobster each represent about one-third of the total harvest.

The research team includes faculty and students from UF, Old Dominion, the University of Miami and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science.

Behringer, Butler and other members of the research team are researching methods for managing PaV1, with funding from the Florida Sea Grant program.

“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Once again they have surprised us with a higher than expected index.”

This month’s three-point rise follows a four-point revised increase in August. Of the five components that make up September’s index, three rose, one declined and one was unchanged. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 44, only five points above its all-time low of 39 in December. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell three points to 81.

In contrast, perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose three points to 75, while expectations about economic conditions over the next five years rose five points to 86. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, such as appliances and cars, rose nine points to 84.

“It is worth noting that the two index components that gauge perceptions of personal finances both now and in the future are flat or down,” McCarty said. “All of the increase is in perceptions of future economic conditions and in the perception that if you have the money it’s a good time to buy.”

There are some signs that the economy is improving, he said.

Once again the median price of a single-family home is virtually flat compared with the previous month, and up for the year, suggesting that housing prices in many areas of Florida have bottomed out, McCarty said. Although foreclosures are still high, the rate seems to be declining, he said.

In other good news, inflation and, in particular, gas prices remain low overall compared with a year ago, McCarty said. In the past few years, gas prices have dominated the consumer confidence index, he said.

In addition, the stock market is still up for the year and at least for now appears stable, he said.

“On the negative side, unemployment remains at 10.7 percent for Florida,” he said. “This number is not expected to improve much until next year, and it could still get worse. Florida lost population this past year and could do so again as the underlying problems preventing people from moving are still in place.”

Tourisms both domestically and internationally also are down as consumers trim discretionary spending, McCarty said. Retail sales were at least temporarily lifted by such programs as Cash for Clunkers, but sales tax revenues in Florida have dropped 10 percent from a year ago, he said.

“In the near term we expect consumer confidence to decline at least a point or two as the holiday season nears and stimulus programs like Cash for Clunkers and rebates for first-time home buyers expire,” he said. “The discussion about health care reform will be at center stage this fall and may affect confidence if the plans involve increased payments from the middle class.”

Also of economic concern is that at some point extended unemployment benefits will run out, putting more pressure on the unemployed, he said.

In the long term, consumers need to be prepared for the inevitable drawing back of stimulus money from the economy, he said.

The U.S. government effectively printed money to avoid a depression, and at some point most of the money will have to be withdrawn from the economy to avoid inflation and a very weak dollar, McCarty said. When that happens, interest rates will rise dramatically, he said.

“We also have to think about how the Florida economy will adjust moving forward,” he said. “It is likely that discussions about off-shore drilling will receive much more attention as Florida looks for industries to replace those dependent on population growth.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for September was conducted from 412 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

“We finally have our irrigation recommendations for establishing shrubs backed up with science. We need less irrigation than many people think,” said Ed Gilman, a UF Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences environmental horticulture professor who led the research study.

The six-year study’s objective was to determine how best to irrigate shrubs during “establishment” — the 20- to 28-week period when shrubs’ roots grow until the plant can survive without irrigation.

The research examined irrigation frequency and volume on the quality, survival and growth rates of three-gallon, container-grown shrubs. Plants were examined in Fort Lauderdale, Balm, Apopka and Citra, locations that span three water management districts in Florida and have varied growing conditions.

Some of the state’s most popular ornamental shrubs were evaluated, including both native and non-native species, such as yaupon holly and gardenia.

“One of the results that we noted was that there are no differences between native and non-native species for amount of water required for establishment, “Gilman said. “This often surprises people, but it emphasizes that the Florida-friendly principle — right plant, right place — is worth following.”

Florida-friendly gardening means planting that accounts for site conditions, maintenance needs and local climate. Such landscapes may use both native and non-native plants, as long as the non-native plants aren’t an invasive species.

Regular irrigation in the months after planting helps shrubs remain healthy and attractive as they establish. But one eyebrow-raising study finding is that light, frequent watering is much more efficient and effective than applying large volumes less frequently.

North of Orlando, Gilman recommends using as little as 1 gallon of water per shrub, applied every eight days. In South Florida, he recommends every four days.

More frequent irrigation, such as every four days in North Florida and every two days in South Florida, does result in more vigorous plant growth. But applying more than 1 gallon per irrigation doesn’t increase survival or growth, he said.

“Results showed that applying large volumes of water cannot compensate for infrequent irrigation,” Gilman said. “This means that you should water more often, but with less water at each irrigation event. That helps the plants achieve proper establishment and, in turn, means less watering in the long run.”

Gardeners should maintain their irrigation schedule until shrubs survive on rainfall alone, once roots have grown to the edge of the foliage canopy, usually within 28 weeks of planting.

In long hot, dry spells, occasional irrigation may be needed after shrubs are established. Such weather can occur at any time in Florida, but is most likely in the spring and fall – April, May, October and sometimes November.

In the first year after planting, use 1 to 2 gallons of water when there is less than a quarter inch of rain within a two-week period. Drought-sensitive shrubs, such as holly fern and wild coffee, may need more frequent supplemental irrigation, while drought-tolerant shrubs, like Burford holly, may need very little.

The study can be found at http://hort.ifas.ufl.edu/irrigation. Or check out the fact sheet Establishing Shrubs in Florida Landscapes, http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/EP391, for more information.

Several simple steps can help ensure your plants survive establishment:
· Consider planting at the start of the rainy season.
· Irrigate based on location, weather and desired plant vigor.
· Apply water directly to the rootball.
· Use low-volume irrigation. Don’t irrigate if a quarter-inch or more rain fell in the last 24 hours.
· After establishment, irrigate when there are signs of wilting, but before leaves begin to die.

Researchers analyzed water taken from 187 lakes in 38 counties during a one-year period, and found that almost three-quarters of the samples had no detectable levels of the chemical microcystin. Only 7 percent of the samples exceeded the World Health Organization guidelines for drinking water, which is one microgram of microcystin per liter.

The results should reassure swimmers, boaters and anglers, said Dan Canfield, a professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences and an author of the study, published in the current issue of Lake and Reservoir Management.

“On a population basis for the state, it’s not a big issue,” Canfield said. “But if it’s a concern to you as an individual you can get a test kit for about $20 and use it to make a decision.”

The test kits, available online, are not as accurate as laboratory tests, but provide immediate results, he said. People with impaired immune systems or hypersensitivity to microcystin may want to exercise caution about lake use.

The chemical is produced by some blue-green algae species; it can damage the liver and has been implicated in human and animal illnesses.

In the study, the highest microcystin levels were found in lakes with the most abundant algae growth. A few samples from Lake Jessup in Seminole County and Lake Hunter in Polk County exceeded the WHO guidelines for recreational waters, 20 micrograms of microcystin per liter.

Microcystin levels can vary from one day to another, and from one part of a lake to another, said Dana Bigham, a UF graduate student and an author of the study. For these reasons, each lake was sampled six times during 2006, at two-month intervals, and water was taken from multiple locations.

Because the chemical is associated with algae blooms, lake users should avoid contact with large mats of floating algae, Bigham said.

The primary danger would come from swallowing water containing microcystin, she said. Research indicates that the effects of microcystin vary between individuals, depending on their sensitivity and the amount ingested. Exposure to the toxin can cause symptoms ranging from upset stomach to severe liver damage.

Microcystin was identified in the early 1980s, Bigham said. Scientists have determined that numerous blue-green algae species can produce it, though its cause is unknown.

The chemical has received media attention, particularly in the Midwest, where it’s associated with summer algae blooms. In Florida, the chemical can be produced virtually year-round, she said. The study indicated the highest microcystin levels occurred in September through December.

The path of a hurricane is notoriously difficult to predict, but the computerized model will estimate damage to utility systems based on hundreds of factors including the strength of winds, level of storm surge and amount of flooding, said Ted Kury, director of energy studies at UF’s Public Utility Research Center. PURC is developing the model in conjunction with a consortium of Florida electric utilities in an agreement with the Florida Public Service Commission.

With this knowledge in hand, utilities can take steps to soften the blow from the tropical cyclones, Kury said.

“When storms knock down utility poles and burn out transformers, utilities have to pay the costs to replace them, which are then passed on to the customers,” he said. “And when the power goes out, people suffer in other ways. They lose food to spoilage. Even if they have their own generator, it costs money to run it.”

Installing underground wires and using different building materials to strengthen power poles are among the ways to upgrade equipment, and the model also estimates the costs of making various improvements, Kury said.

“There really isn’t anything out there like this that addresses these kinds of issues,” he said.

Sometimes spending money to make the system more secure can actually have the opposite effect, Kury said. For instance, transferring overhead wires underground makes them less vulnerable to wind damage but can make them more susceptible to storm surge, he said.

“That is where having the model is useful,” he said. “Otherwise the utility could spend an awful lot of money — which would have to be recovered from the rate payers — and actually make the equipment less secure in the event of severe weather.”

The model breaks the state into four parts — the Panhandle, the Gulf Coast, southeast Florida and northeast Florida — and uses historical data on how often hurricanes have hit each region to base predictions for future damage, Kury said.

“Hurricanes are more likely to hit the southeast coast and the Panhandle, and we see many more hurricanes that are category one than category four or five,” he said.

After the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, which caused an estimated $28 billion in property damage, the Florida Public Service Commission directed each electric utility to put together a storm preparedness program that addressed 10 initiatives. The utilities asked PURC to coordinate the collaborative research initiative, which would offer cooperative benefits to the state’s different types of utilities, including not only ones that are investor-owned and but those operated by cities and co-operatives Kury said.

The model, which is scheduled to be completed in March, is similar to one used by Federal Emergency Management Agency to assess damages to residential and business property, he said.

In addition to the model, which estimates the costs of making utility systems more resistant to storms, PURC has worked with the utilities to construct a database of equipment damage from storm events, and a central system for tracking this damage, Kury said. Other than tracking overall damage from storms, it is difficult for utilities to collect detailed information themselves because their main job is restoring power, he said.

“When a storm hits, utility workers are not going to stand around looking at poles and wires and taking notes about how everything happened,” he said. “What we’ve done for them here at PURC is try to set up a system that is as seamless as possible for them to track some of this data on a very granular level.”

Ultimately, the state’s utilities, their customers and the Public Utilities Commission will decide which, if any, specific changes to make and how widely to implement them, Kury said.

“We’re just trying to help them to understand the costs and benefits of their decisions,” he said.

It refers to the importance of water depth — making sure the proper areas are dry or marshy or submerged. For decades, experts had to take their own water-depth measurements or get data from multiple agencies.

In March 2005, things got easier. A modeling system called the Everglades Depth Estimation Network, or EDEN, went online. Developed by the U.S. Geological Survey working with the University of Florida and Florida Atlantic University, the system provides daily estimates of water depth and other information for most of the Everglades.

Now, a UF study verifies that EDEN’s estimates are accurate.

As reported in the current issue of Ecohydrology, researchers with UF, FAU, the University of Connecticut and the South Florida Natural Resources Center took water-depth measurements at 24 locations and compared them with EDEN’s estimates. Most estimates matched the measurements within 2 inches.

Frank Mazzotti, an associate professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, says now that the system has been verified, he hopes it will gain popularity with scientists who assess the progress of Everglades restoration efforts, which aim to restore natural water flow throughout the region and support populations of indigenous animals and plants.

“We’ve never had a tool like this,” said Mazzotti, one of the study authors. “The idea is to make it freely available.”

Already, experts with UF and other Florida institutions have used EDEN to investigate populations of wading birds, invasive plants, fish and amphibians.

The system uses more than 200 monitoring stations throughout the Everglades that measure water depth. That information, along with geographic data, is then interpreted by computer software. The system generates water-depth estimates for the entire freshwater portion of the greater Everglades, broken down into quadrants measuring about 1,300 feet by 1,300 feet.

Mazzotti says he’s thrilled to have EDEN available, and is using it in a study that correlates alligators’ body condition with water levels.

The system will receive upgrades in the near future to provide better modeling of topography below the water and better water surface estimates, said Pamela Telis, project team leader for the U.S. Geological Survey.

The system is the brainchild of Aaron Higer, a longtime USGS program manager and current UF employee, who first envisioned the idea in the 1960s.

The system is found at http://sofia.usgs.gov/eden/.