“This year doesn’t look like it’s going to be tremendously unusual in terms of overall cases of mosquito-borne diseases,” said Jonathan Day, a professor of medical entomology with the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. “But transmission of [EEEV] tends to be very focal, and there are some areas that are looking risky.”

EEEV is best known for being deadly in horses, but humans can contract the virus as well.

According to the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the virus can cause a severe infection of the central nervous system in humans, and is fatal for nearly a third of those afflicted.

So far this year, 26 horses have been found to be infected in North Florida, with five more in the state’s Panhandle.

These cases, along with analysis of weather conditions and other indicators, have led UF entomologists to believe that a band of counties beginning at Volusia County and stretching northwest into the Florida Panhandle carry a moderate to high risk of mosquitoes carrying the virus.

For an up-to-date risk map, please visit http://eis.ifas.ufl.edu/eis1.htm.

“July is usually the peak for EEEV transmission,” said Roxanne Connelly, an IFAS professor of medical entomology. “We’ve had the type of weather patterns that can make the problem worse in some areas.”

The disease is spread via mosquitoes that have fed on birds. Humans and horses cannot spread the virus to other humans and horses.

Connelly advises that people in risk areas avoid being outside during peak feeding times for mosquitoes that carry the disease — calm, humid periods from dusk to dawn.

If you are outside during these times, you should cover as much skin as possible. Bare skin should be treated with a repellent that carries DEET or Picaridin.

“There are all sorts of traps and tools out there like bug lights and citronella candles,” Connelly said. “None of them keeps mosquitoes from biting you — only a repellent applied directly on your body can do that.”

Pet birds should be kept inside and, while it is very rare for dogs and cats to contract EEEV, Connelly suggests being aware that pets aren’t immune to pesky mosquito bites.

Spraying dogs and cats with repellents labeled for use on humans can be dangerous because they can lick the repellent while grooming. There are products made for dogs that do not contain DEET, but make sure to read and follow the directions.

Pets are best kept inside away from mosquitoes during peak feeding times. And, any dog that is at risk of being bitten should be on a monthly heartworm prevention treatment. Prevention treatments formulated for cats are also available.

The index components were mixed, with perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago up three points to 44 from a revised May reading of 41 but still near historical lows. All others were lower than or the same as last month.

Perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell six points to 84, and perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell seven points to 65 — it was 51 at this time last year. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items fell nine points to 67. Finally, perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years remained unchanged at 80.

“In the previous two releases we had suggested the possibility of a small decline in confidence in June, which seems to have been the case,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “This is most likely a combination of the fallout from the Florida state budget, which includes several new and increased fees, as well as the bankruptcy of GM.”

Another factor affecting the decline is a sharp increase in Florida’s unemployment rate. A previous unemployment release from the Agency for Workforce Innovation showed a slight decline, but that has since been erased by an increase into double-digit unemployment, he added. Florida’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2009 was 10.2 percent, according to the agency.

“Most economists believe unemployment will continue to increase as the economy moves into recovery,” McCarty said.

The economic landscape in Florida remains mixed. On the negative side is high unemployment and continued foreclosures, although the rate of foreclosures in Florida may already have peaked, McCarty said. Gas prices have increased dramatically over the past month, although there are signs that may be reversing.

On the positive side, the Florida Association of Realtors report for May once again showed signs that the median price of existing homes is stabilizing. Since January, the median price has fluctuated in a narrow range and is now up for the year at $144,400. It is increasingly likely that Florida has taken most of its knocks to housing value, even as other states continue to decline, McCarty said.

“Moving forward, we do not expect Florida consumer confidence to decline much more over the next couple of months, barring some unforeseen change here in Florida or nationally,” he said. “There is at least a temporary reaction of the stock market to some recent news, including Iran and dramatic increases in mortgage and credit card delinquencies. So far, this volatility is relatively small and not indicative of a reversal in the economic recovery.”

However, McCarty cautions that everyone should expect the recovery to be long and uneven for some sectors of the economy.

“With the demise of longstanding financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers and manufacturing companies like Chrysler and GM, it is no longer business as usual,” he said. “The U.S. is clearly going to share more of the global economic pie than it has in the past.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for June was conducted from 430 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

And, contrary to popular belief, the guards also show sympathy to the plight of gay men who are targets of sexual assault, said Carrie Cook, who did the research for her doctoral degree in the criminology, law and society department at UF.

“There’s a perception that corrections officers are anti-inmate and not very progressive, but results from my study directly rebut that, perhaps partly because some training programs now incorporate information about HIV and sexually transmitted diseases,” she said

The issue is important because jails and prisons have high incidences of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases, which are likely to spread into the community, Cook said. More than 90 percent of people who serve time in state and federal prisons are eventually released and jail populations turn over 15 times in one year on average, she said.

Although research has looked at sexual assaults in prisons, little has been done in jails where Cook did her study. Jails have 17 times as many inmates admitted as prisons and they are released more quickly into the community — jail time rarely exceeds a year — with those inmates who are infected bringing an increased risk to community health.

“We rarely lock up somebody and keep them there forever, so what happens to people in that environment is not going to stay there,” she said.

University of South Dakota psychology professor Cindy Struckman-Johnson, an expert on issues related to prison rape, said Cook’s study “suggests that there may be a sea change in how security officers perceive and respond to the problem of inmate rape.” Surveys conducted by the Bureau of Justice Statistics for the Prison Rape Elimination Act of 2003 indicated that sexual abuse of inmates was a serious problem in prisons and jails, and research from the 1990s shows many correctional officers in state prisons questioned the credibility of inmates who reported being raped in prison, particularly those who were gay or bisexual, she said.

The strongest point of agreement among the officers surveyed was that 96 percent said they should do everything in their power to protect their wards against sexual assault, and 95 percent say they should encourage inmates to report these crimes.

The study also found that corrections officers consider gay men or those with feminine qualities less responsible for rape than inmates who previously consented to sex or those who take money or cigarettes in exchange for sex, Cook said.

Eighty-eight percent disagreed or strongly disagreed with the statement that homosexual inmates get what they deserve if they are raped in jail. Otherwise, the proportion of those disagreeing or strongly disagreeing was 76 percent for inmates who had taken money or cigarettes in exchange for consensual sex and 74 percent who had previously consented to sex in jail.

“That officers find inmates who are homosexual or who act feminine most credible indicates they almost expect these people to be targeted in a correctional setting,” she said.

The lowest response from officers concerned whether the officers should talk with inmates about the risks of being sexually assaulted, Cook said. Only 59 percent said they thought it was their place to do so, suggesting they believe it is a more appropriate role for counselors, she said.

“It shows they’re more likely to blame inmates for what they do in jail than who they are,” Cook said.

In many ways, perceptions of inmate credibility mirror attitudes about female rape victims in the community at large, Cook said. Women who are known to have had previous relationships with their perpetrators, for example, are often seen as less believable, she said.

“I think that many scholars, including myself, would argue that it’s very difficult to call any sexual acts consensual in a correctional environment,” she said. “An inmate may agree to have sex with an inmate who offers physical protection from other inmates, or there could be other underlying circumstances.”

No reliable statistics are available for the number of rapes in prisons and jails because inmates — particularly men — are reluctant to report it, she said.

“Sexual assault really targets inmates for further attacks,” she said. “Typically in a correctional environment, there are the powerful and the weak. Once someone is preyed upon, they become a successful target and it opens the door for others to prey upon them.”

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida’s consumer confidence dropped one point in May to 71, reflecting pessimism about personal finances despite an improved national economic outlook, the latest University of Florida survey finds.

The index component measuring perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell four points to 40, one point above its all-time low record of 39 in December. In contrast, expectations of personal finances a year from now rose five points to 90, the highest level since October 2007.

“The makeup of the consumer confidence index in May reflects optimism about the economy in the short run, but the decline in perceptions of current personal finances to near record lows is noteworthy,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Floridians are saying they don’t have the money now to buy, but they expect to within a year.”

Perhaps consumers also are wondering what happens when the government’s infusion of stimulus money runs out, McCarty said. “While they expect the U.S. economy to improve over the next year, they are beginning to question its long-term viability,” he said.

Of the remaining index components, perceptions of the U.S. economy over the next year rose four points to 73, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell four points to 78. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items fell six points to 72.

The economic environment for consumers is mixed. On the plus side, housing prices in Florida appear to be stabilizing in some markets, although foreclosures are still high, McCarty said. In many areas, housing prices have fallen to a level that could not sustain a much larger drop, he said.

In other positive news, the unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percent in April to 9.6 percent, McCarty said. Rising unemployment has been a big concern for policymakers in anticipating a recovery, he said.

However, the stock market continues to show volatility, although it is appearing to have a sustained rally, he said.

Also of concern is that retail sales have been down for the past two months, reflecting pessimism about the economy, even though April’s decline was small, McCarty said. Also, gasoline prices have risen 25 cents in the past two weeks, as is typically the case when summer travel approaches, he said.

“Moving forward, we still anticipate at least a short-term decline in confidence over the next couple of months as the impact of the state budget is felt and the effects of a GM (General Motors) bankruptcy move through the system,” McCarty said.

However, on balance, the economic news, while not necessarily good, is not shockingly bad, either, he said.

“Like the end of hurricane season, Floridians are grateful for a day, week or month without facing economic destruction,” he said. “At this point, they just want to get about the business of cleaning up the mess.”

The overall index for April was revised from a preliminary figure of 71, which was reported earlier, to 72 after all the survey data had been collected at the end of the month.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for May was conducted from 408 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The first signs of confidence in Florida real estate are starting to appear with hopes that government stimulus plans will unfreeze markets and reinvigorate business, the latest University of Florida survey finds.

“People believe in some instances that a lot of what the government is doing to try to inject capital into the system may actually have some effect,” said Timothy Becker, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, which conducts the quarterly survey. “Positive responses to several questions lead us to believe there is light at the end of the tunnel.”

Perhaps most significant is that respondents’ perception of their own business outlook has improved after three years of steady decline, Becker said.

“If real estate investors think there are opportunities out there for their firms to make money, that means there are deals that will be getting done and when deals start getting done, various participants in the transactions make money and it’s almost like a snowball effect,” he said.

Another positive finding was the perception of the availability of capital, which jumped to its highest level in the survey’s history, Becker said. Respondents expect some money that has sat in treasury funds to start trickling back into real estate as investors gain confidence with the steps banks are taking to rid their balance sheets of bad assets, he said.

That capital is not yet actually available is still a concern, though, Becker said. If loans come due for shopping centers, for example, and there is no capital in the marketplace to refinance these loans, that will slow any recovery, he said.

The latest statewide survey of Florida real estate trends, which was completed in March, is 14th in a series and based on 335 responses from leaders and professional advisers in the industry. It follows the December survey, which showed that confidence in real estate markets had sunk to their lowest levels since the survey began in July 2006.

Retail is worse off than any other real estate sector right now simply because consumers are buying less, Becker said. “With people uncomfortable about whether they’re going to have a job, they obviously are spending less money than they did in the past,” he said.

Job losses mean the office rental market is not doing well either as owners try to fill newly vacated space, he said.

Apartment occupancy also is falling, with confidence declining even more in the most recent survey, Becker said. “In talking to people, it appears as their houses are foreclosing, they’re not necessarily going into rental apartments, they’ve moving in with family or friends in the short term,” he said.

Single-family housing prices are expected to continue to drop, especially in areas with a glut of foreclosures, Becker said. Because banks want to get these properties off their books as they hit the market, housing prices are likely to fall as these properties are sold, he said.

“In the short term, I think we will have more downward pressure on prices, particularly in places where foreclosures have been pretty high,” he said. The most notably hard hit area in the state is Lee County in southwest Florida, with places such as Miami and even Jacksonville hurting to some extent, he said.

The combination of low prices and interest rates has boosted the number of houses being sold, particularly in some areas, he said.

New construction is competing unusually well against foreclosed homes, Becker said. With lower interest rates and construction costs, builders are starting to make new homes more affordable, creating an attractive option for would-be buyers, he said.

“With the number of distressed houses on the market, you would think that buyers would typically lean toward those because they would be cheaper,” he said. “But in many cases foreclosed homes have been sitting on the market for long periods of time not being maintained and people aren’t willing to invest the money it takes to fix them back up.”

Builders are building smaller homes with cheaper construction costs because that is what people want, Becker said.

“I think in general people are downsizing everything they do,” he said. “They don’t need the biggest house they did before, they don’t need the biggest car they did before and they aren’t buying as much as they did before.”

On bell pepper plants in greenhouses, the mite consumed enough chilli thrips to keep the population to less than one per leaf, compared with 70 per leaf on control plants. Similar results were obtained with peppers grown outdoors. The study was published this month in the journal Biological Control.

Native to Asia, the invasive pest attacks more than 100 host plants, including corn, citrus, peanuts and tomatoes. Established first in the Caribbean, it spread to Florida in 2005 and then to Texas. Adult chilli thrips are about 1 millimeter long.

According to a U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate, if chilli thrips become more widely established in the U. S., they could cause agricultural losses of almost $4 billion per year.

For greenhouse crops — including bell peppers, strawberries, basil and flowers such as Gerber daisies — the mite could provide a much-needed alternative to pesticides, said Lance Osborne, a professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences and an author of the study.

“This mite has a lot of potential for greenhouses, which is where it’s used now,” Osborne said. The mite, which has no common name but is known scientifically as Amblyseius swirskii, is available commercially to manage whiteflies and broad mites.

Because the mite is already approved for use in Florida, growers can try it against chilli thrips, he said. Osborne cautioned that the mite is not likely to be successful on every crop the pest attacks. Researchers were happy to find the mite held up well outdoors on bell peppers. Previous attempts to establish the mite outside on rose bushes have been unsuccessful, he said.

“Maybe there is a plant issue — they prefer peppers, but not roses,” Osborne said.

An upcoming project will investigate the use of peppers as “banker plants” — the mite equivalent of birdhouses, said Cindy McKenzie, a research entomologist with the USDA’s Horticultural Research Laboratory in Fort Pierce.

In the project, ornamental peppers will be planted outdoors among rose bushes, to see if they can harbor mite populations that protect both plant species, said McKenzie, another author of the study.

If successful, this approach could be helpful to rose gardeners, especially in the Orlando area, hard-hit by chilli thrips. And if you’ve never heard of ornamental peppers, McKenzie said they make a nice addition to the landscape.

“We screened more than 20 ornamental peppers and narrowed it down to four,” she said. “They’re very pretty varieties, with dark purple and green leaves.”

Researchers also hope to develop a pesticide-resistant strain of the mite, Osborne said.

“That way, if a grower has to come in and spray, it won’t disrupt the biological control,” he said. Osborne previously developed a resistant strain of another predatory mite.

The current study was part of an ongoing collaboration between scientists with UF and the USDA, aimed at minimizing chilli thrips damage.

For more information on chilli thrips, see http://mrec.ifas.ufl.edu/lso/thripslinks.htm.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer confidence among Floridians surged six points to 71 in April amid indicators of flattening housing prices statewide and news that the economy has not worsened, a new University of Florida survey finds.

“The size of the increase comes as somewhat of a surprise,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “We had expected confidence among Florida’s consumers to move up and down in a fairly narrow window from the low to the upper 60s.”

While there are certainly some signs that the economy may be improving, such as housing prices possibly hitting their lowest point, many negative conditions still exist, such as continuing job losses, McCarty said. Florida’s unemployment rate of 9.7 percent is the highest since 1976, he said.

“However, in balance, consumers seem to have absorbed most of the bad news and are at least not seeing things getting much worse,” he said. “Perhaps we really have seen the bottom in terms of Florida consumer confidence, which was back in June of last year.”

In that month, consumer confidence sunk to 59, its lowest level in the index’s 25-year history.

All five of the components in April rose. The biggest jump was in perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, such as cars and appliances, which jumped 15 points to 77. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year climbed nine points to 69, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose three points to 82. Perceptions of personal finances a year from now increased five points to 85, while perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose two points to 44.

Despite these positive signs, there is still enormous uncertainty surrounding the economic recovery, McCarty said.

The massive interventions by the federal government, the Federal Reserve and governments around the world have had obvious effects, although there is debate whether the effects are all positive, McCarty said. At the same time, stock markets around the world have experienced a recent rally that some economic pundits characterize as the beginnings of a recovery but could turn around quickly with bad news, he said.

If housing prices nationally begin to stabilize, this would help establish the value of some of the toxic assets held by banks and at least indicate how deeply the recession has hurt the global economy, he said.

“Consumers seem to characterize the economy by those events both in their personal lives and in the news that are changing the most, whether those be good or bad,” he said.

There has not been much news recently about very large bailouts, nor have there been many notable bankruptcies of very large companies, although there is a strong possibility that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler may end up having to declare bankruptcy, McCarty said. Were that to happen, it would likely cause at least a temporary drop in consumer confidence, even here in Florida, he said.

Barring something of that magnitude, consumer confidence may continue to improve as various sectors of the economy begin to recover, he said.

“For Floridians specifically the next big news will probably be the Florida state budget and the effects it will have on taxpayers, who stand to pay more in various fees, and those who depend on state revenue for their employment,” he said. “The effects of this may not be known well into May.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for April was conducted from 406 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

It’s been about five years since the southeastern U.S. saw a good termite swarm season like those that were once common, University of Florida researchers say. Swarms of termites fly from their nests to mate and start new colonies.

In the last few years, termites have swarmed maybe two or three days, but nothing like the frequent, repeated swarms that used to occur, said Phil Koehler, an urban entomology professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

Koehler believes he knows why swarms are scarce. Pest control operators have begun to see wingless, crawling termites. Termites don’t need to fly to mate, so rather than swarming, they’re crawling off by the thousands to form new colonies, he said.

That means homeowners and even pest control experts can miss these events, because no telltale wings are left behind. And without evidence of infestation, homeowners may not get the warning they need.

“It’s like having a smoke alarm without a battery in it,” Koehler said. “If you have termites right now, you could have significant damage and not have any sign of it.”

Floridians deal with two main types of termites: subterranean termites, which tunnel from moist underground places and attack homes from the ground up; and drywood termites, which are found in the dry wood of the house. Both species can go undetected until they’ve done extensive damage to a home.

Typically, subterranean termites swarm from January until about April while their drywood counterparts have a peak swarming time in June and July.

Koehler and research associate scientist Roberto Pereira believe two factors have kept termite swarms to a minimum: better pest control methods and drought conditions in the southeastern U.S.

Despite recent heavy rains and even flooding in some areas, much of Florida remains under severe drought conditions, according to IFAS’ Southeast Climate Consortium.

When deprived of water, subterranean termites stay underground searching for it, Koehler said, which is why he believes the drought is at least partly to blame for the dearth of swarms. Koehler and Pereira theorize that drought conditions have forced termites underground for so long that by the time they emerge, they’ve lost their wings.

If limited swarming continues, it would underscore the need for homeowners to seek professional termite treatment, he said.

The state’s building codes were strengthened in 2001 to require that new construction include termite protection. In 2004, the state mandated that builders choose termite-protection products from a list of 64 proven effective in Florida.

Even with those rules, about half of Florida’s homeowners have no termite protection, Koehler said.

“It’s pretty cheap to prevent termites, but expensive if you get them,” Pereira said.

Florida Pest Control President D.R. Sapp Jr., whose company’s 20 offices cover much of Florida, said he agrees with researchers’ theories about better controls and climate.

“It used to be when termites started swarming, our phones would ring off the hook,” he said. “But termites haven’t left, they’re still here. They just don’t rear their heads and make their presence known as they did in the past.”

According to the annual Florida Land Value Survey, conducted by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, rural land and land outside of metropolitan areas — eagerly sought by developers in recent years — is now commonly being offered for sale at a fraction of its cost.

“In some cases, it’s almost like a fire sale,” said Rodney Clouser, the UF professor of food and resource economics who led the survey. Some respondents reported large blocks of land being offered at 20 to 30 percent of their purchase price.

A population boom between 2002 and 2006 contributed to a dramatic rise in land prices throughout Florida. But now, the state’s annual population increase is expected to be only 10 percent of the boom years’ growth, according to UF population projections.

The survey, which does not cover urban land values, showed that land outside of cities primed for development, dubbed transition land, decreased by as much as 55 percent in the northern half of the state.

Transition land within five miles of urban centers in the southern half of the state lost nearly 40 percent of its value.

However, in the one exception to the otherwise gloomy economic picture, transition land more than five miles away from urban centers in the southern half of the state increased by 5 percent. Most likely, this is because its low price and relative location to large cities was seen as the best deal by those still looking to buy real estate, Clouser said.

Nevertheless, the 5 percent increase is significantly smaller than the nearly 17 percent increase for the same area last year.

Lagging development hasn’t just affected areas destined for shopping malls and homes. It has also contributed to drops as large as 26 percent in farmland values.

Although such land is typically evaluated primarily by the profitability of the crop produced, urban expansion was so rapid in recent boom years that many began to evaluate the land based on what it would bring if used for housing or other development purposes, Clouser said.

Land prices are expected to continue their drop through 2009 — although not as dramatically as in 2008. Survey responses from individuals involved in the Florida real estate market predict an overall drop between 5 and 17 percent.

Even after the national economic picture brightens, Clouser said, a surplus of homes and other existing development would need to be sold before demand would once again drive land prices up.

The report can be viewed at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/FE798.

The conference, scheduled for April 14 at the Hilton University of Florida Conference Center, will feature 16 start-up companies created to market and manufacture research innovations.

Through a series of overviews and information sessions, investors and entrepreneurs will be introduced to each company’s mission and the innovation behind it. Those interested will have a chance to be involved in the future of UF’s hottest medical and technological research.

The conference starts after a buffet lunch with opening remarks by UF President Bernie Machen and an overview of UF research and commercialization milestones by Win Phillips, UF’s vice president for research. The afternoon continues with a keynote panel discussion with prominent venture capitalists, followed by an overview of technology opportunities from David Day, director of the Office of Technology Licensing at UF, and Jane Muir, associate director of OTL. Breakout sessions with the companies will go from 3 to 5 p.m.

Last year, OTL provided 75 licenses on more than 100 new technologies, Muir said.

“The university is a huge research engine,” Muir said. “Our goal is to get that research out of the laboratory and into the marketplace.”

The showcase starts at 11:30 a.m. with registration and continues until 5 p.m. An inventors’ reception will be held from 5 to 7 p.m.

For more information, visit:
http://conferences.dce.ufl.edu/innovationshowcase/.

No, really — actual dirt. Spodosols, Histosols, Ultisols, you name it, they’ve dug them up, labeled them and ferried them back to their lab at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, where they’re being analyzed for associate professor Sabine Grunwald as part of the state’s largest-ever soil-carbon study.

When completed next year, the study could help Florida venture into the carbon-credit market, a way for governments, farmers and landowners to earn money while helping reduce greenhouse gases by storing carbon in soils.

Grunwald’s study, a USDA-funded, three-year core project of the North American Carbon Program, is nothing if not audacious: The soil and water science expert has charged her team with collecting a total of 1,000 soil samples from just about every conceivable type of land in Florida.

Their goal is to create a comprehensive soil carbon inventory for the state, and be able to predict — based on factors such as land use, hydrology and topography — how much carbon can be stored in the ground.

While it’s already established that Florida has more soil carbon than any other state, officials here haven’t yet taken advantage of that by jumping into carbon-credit markets.

Carbon-credit markets seek to mitigate global warming by allowing the market to assign a dollar value to measurable reductions of harmful greenhouse gases and allowing “credits” for such reductions to be bought and sold. In some cases, farm land would need to be left untilled for several seasons to allow carbon to be stored.

Those markets are far more active in Europe than the U.S., though many expect such markets here to become more viable and lucrative in the not-too-distant future.

But what landowners and those who make decisions about land use need to know before taking the plunge is how much carbon is stored in different types of soil.

“What we really need first is accurate data,” Grunwald said. “And what we researchers can contribute is knowledge about how carbon is sequestered.”

A study Grunwald and her team conducted from 2005 until 2008 looked at soil carbon levels in the Santa Fe River watershed and allowed researchers to become adept at using soil spectroscopy, a cost-effective method that allows them to quickly make soil property inferences.

During that study, she said, it occurred to researchers that expanding their scope from the eight-county watershed to a statewide project only made sense.

“We just said, ‘let’s do it for the whole state,’” she said.

Bags full of soil samples and paper grocery sacks full of “litter” — things like dried grass and decomposed leaves the women scrape off the top of the earth right near where they auger the dirt samples, are starting to be analyzed.

Grunwald said she hopes the soil and litter analyses will be complete by late fall.

The project’s conclusion marks the end of months of grueling work by field team leader Aja Stoppe and helpers Lisa Stanley and Elena Azuaje, who have traversed thousands of miles across Florida, through swamp, pine forests, farm land, pastures and muck.

Their stories of weird looks from strangers and being covered in grime from ear to elbow are entertaining — like the time Stoppe stepped out onto what she thought was solid ground only to plunge into waist-deep water.

Driving back to Gainesville after a day spent collecting samples in the Osceola National Forest, they rehash exploits and marvel at the kindness of strangers.

And there, Stoppe points out a critical difference in having an all-female crew.

“We always send thank you cards to the people who helped us,” she said.

Other members of the team included graduate students Gustavo Vasques and Jongsung Kim, postdoctoral researchers Brent Myers and Deoyani Sarkhot, and UF faculty members Nick Comerford, Willie Harris and Greg Bruland.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer confidence among Floridians rose three points to 65 in March amid some good economic news, but the pattern is one of fluctuation rather than real economic recovery, says a University of Florida researcher.

“Florida consumers remain relatively pessimistic despite the three-point rise in confidence,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Until there is a clear message that things are changing for the better, we expect consumer confidence to continue to move up and down as conflicting economic news trickles in.”

Three of the five components of the index rose, while one declined and one remained unchanged. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose 12 points to 79, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose 10 points to 59. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose one point to 42, while perceptions of personal finances a year from now remained unchanged at 79. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items fell eight points to 64.

Since July 2008, consumer confidence has vacillated within an eight-point range, McCarty said.

“Much like the stock market, consumer confidence seems to lack a clear direction as positive economic news is typically countered by negative news,” he said. “For example, housing sales and prices in some areas of Florida have increased, but unemployment is at levels not seen for 30 years. The stimulus package passed, but unpopular bonuses at AIG and debate in the Florida Legislature about accepting parts of the stimulus package counter that positive effect.”

The employment situation in Florida is expected to worsen at least through the end of 2009 and possibly into 2010, McCarty said.

“Like the rest of the country, Florida consumers have pulled back dramatically on spending in the face of declining home prices and uncertainty about job security,” he said. “On the positive side, housing price declines in some areas of Florida seem to have slowed, and new federal tax rebates for first-time buyers along with low interest rates may make for a much better home buying season given pent-up demand.”

McCarty said he believes these events will eventually improve circumstances for some businesses in Florida, although the construction industry may take a long time to recover.

“Increased home sales and a clear change in the stock market would both send messages to Floridians that the economic recovery is on its way,” he said. “Until then, consumers are likely to remain pessimistic and cautious about spending.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for March was conducted from 470 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The economic recession has cast a shadow over growth in the Sunshine State, according to the latest population projections from the University of Florida, which see Florida’s population increases plunging to their lowest level in 60 years and some counties actually shrinking.

With South Florida counties particularly hard hit, the state is expected to add an average of only 37,000 residents each year between 2008 and 2010, a drop of more than 90 percent from the annual average increase during the housing boom years of 2002 to 2006, said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research who led the research. The new report shows county population projections from 2008 to 2035.

“The collapse of the housing market and the lingering effects of what has been the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression have put a real crimp on migration and are likely to keep Florida’s population growth at very low levels for the next few years,” Smith said.

Not since the mid-1940s, when large numbers of military personnel who temporarily moved to Florida during World War II returned to their home states, has the state experienced such small population increases, Smith said. After growing by 60,000 to 80,000 per year in the late 1930s, Florida’s population swelled by 100,000 to 300,000 per year in the early 1940s, declined for two years immediately following the war and then entered a prolonged period of steady growth, he said.

The housing bust and resulting drop in home values, along with stock market declines affecting savings and retirement accounts, have made it difficult for residents nationwide to sell their homes and move to Florida, Smith said. In addition, the recession has created a loss of jobs in Florida, and employment is one of the main reasons people move to the state, he said.

While projections call for most counties to grow slowly, Smith said, 14 counties are expected to lose population during the next two years: Broward, Calhoun, Collier, Gulf, Lee, Martin, Monroe, Okaloosa, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Seminole and Volusia.

Since 2000 the only Florida county to lose population was Monroe, Smith said. “That’s an unusual case in that most of its land is in the Everglades, which is not developable, and most of the population is in the Keys, where there is little space to expand and the cost of living is relatively high,” he said.

Counties in South Florida are hardest hit because they expanded most during the housing boom as huge numbers of workers moved into the state to take jobs in real estate and construction and other businesses, Smith said. When the economy declined, employees left and county populations fell, he said.

“Many of the counties in North Florida had not experienced the boom to the same degree as the counties in South Florida and consequently did not experience the bust to the same degree,” he said.

As economic growth slowed and the housing market cooled, annual population growth declined from an average of 395,000 between 2000 and 2006 to 331,000 between 2006 and 2007 and 127,000 in 2007 and 2008, he said.

The effects are being felt everywhere from declining revenues from sales taxes and real estate transactions for state and local budgets to businesses experiencing a downturn from less demand for their goods and services, he said.

“As the national economy recovers and as the excess supply of housing in Florida is absorbed, we’re expecting growth to pick up again, probably within the next year or so, and then to increase to more normal levels during the next decade,” Smith said.

The only events that might stall population growth would be a prolonged economic slowdown similar to the Great Depression, which Smith believes is unlikely, or factors making the state a less desirable place to live, such as being hit by an unusually large number of hurricanes.

“I think heavy hurricane damage would have a psychological impact on people in terms of their thinking about whether to move to Florida, but perhaps more importantly it would have a strong economic effect by leading to a substantial increase in property insurance rates,” he said.

But a pilot program in Florida that has redefined when children can receive palliative care could help change this, UF researchers say.

“One barrier has been the way the reimbursement system works,” said Caprice Knapp, an assistant research professor of epidemiology and health policy research in the College of Medicine and the lead author of three studies recently published on pediatric palliative care in Florida. “Traditionally, for hospice reimbursement, if your child has a terminal illness, you can access hospice care but a physician must certify that the child is within the last six months of life.

“Even though hospice services are beneficial and families who end up using them are happy with them, parents might perceive this as giving up hope due to the six-month rule.”

Florida was one of four states selected to receive $3.2 million to develop a new model for pediatric palliative care and was the first to implement its program in 2005. Called “Partners in Care: Together for Kids,” this program allows children on Medicaid or the State Children’s Health Insurance Program to receive palliative care from the time they are diagnosed with a life-threatening condition, regardless of prognosis.

“Care for children at the end of life costs a lot of money,” Knapp said. “But if we move them into this new model of care, we might be able to save money and improve their quality of life.”

Prior to the program, between 7 and 11 percent of children who died in Florida received hospice services at the end of life, according to a study the researchers published in March in the Journal of Palliative Medicine. By contrast, about 30 percent of adults with cancer receive hospice care at the end of life, Knapp said.

Minority children were even less likely to receive hospice services. According to the study, white children incurred about $800 more in hospice expenses than minority children.

Between 2005 and 2008, enrollment in the program, which is available in seven cities across Florida, increased from 80 patients to 468. Of those families, 85 percent reported they were pleased with the program, according to an article published in the Journal of Palliative Medicine in November.

Although the word “hospice” tends to trigger thoughts of older patients in their last days of life, palliative care actually ranges from managing a patient’s symptoms to offering psychological services to patients and their families.

“Children who have palliative care often live better,” said Dr. Sarah Friebert, director of the A Palette of Care Program and the Haslinger Division of Pediatric Palliative Care at Akron Children’s Hospital in Ohio. “Their families are more well-adjusted. Their symptoms are more controlled. They are able to enjoy the good times they have. Palliative care can really help make that better.”

Because Florida’s new program allows children and families to obtain pediatric palliative care anytime after their diagnosis, more families can now receive services, Knapp said.

Depending on the outcomes of the program, private insurance companies might eventually choose to adopt similar policies, Knapp added.

“Florida is the only state where the rule has been changed across-the-board,” Knapp said. “It’s about the big picture, though. We’re making small strides toward comprehensive pediatric palliative care coverage, but this is the first time this has ever been done by a state.”

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — With the nation’s economy withering, University of Florida experts say many state residents are looking to put food on the table — by growing it.

Sydney Park Brown, a UF extension specialist with the Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, said extension agents around the state have noticed a big uptick in interest about vegetable gardening.

Extension agents have seen higher than usual numbers of people with questions about how and when to grow vegetables. And a videoconference IFAS hosted on the subject Feb. 28 drew more than 450 viewers, Park Brown said.

“We’ve been overwhelmed with people interested in growing their own vegetables,” she said. “And it’s really picked up in the last year.”

Extension agents’ interaction with the public dovetails exactly with the National Gardening Association’s recent survey, that shows 7 million more American households plan to grow their own fruits, vegetables, herbs or berries this year—a 19 percent jump from 2008.

There was also a 10 percent increase in households with gardening plans from 2007 to 2008.

The NGA’s Bruce Butterfield, involved with the survey for 30 years, said the results are tied to the economy. When people feel anxious, they often literally return to their roots, he said.

“There’s this whole sense of, in a world gone crazy, things might be terrible out there, but I’m not helpless, here’s something I can do,” he said.
But, he noted, the survey also showed that the economy wasn’t the only factor.

The annual survey, sponsored by Scotts Miracle-Gro Company and the Garden Writers Association and conducted by Harris Interactive, found that while 54 percent of those planning to grow food were doing so to combat high grocery bills:

• 58 percent hope to grow better-tasting food;
• 51 percent hope for better-quality food, and
• 48 percent plan to grow their own food to ensure its safety.

Butterfield said the survey results feel to him a bit like “back to the future.” When he was first involved with the study around 1978, Americans were also turning to gardening as a way to be more frugal.

Floridians face challenges as gardeners, he said, most notably from the wilting heat, sandy soil and ever-present bugs.

Park Brown, based at UF’s Gulf Coast Research and Education Center, said that’s where IFAS extension can offer help. County extension agents are well-armed with tips for even the most inexperienced gardener.

Among them: online presentations from the Feb. 28 vegetable gardening videoconference have been posted on the Solutions for Your Life Web site: http://webdev.ifas.ufl.edu/sfyl/hot_topics/lawn_and_garden/spring_veggie_gardening.html#.

The recently updated Florida Vegetable Gardening Guide, with a comprehensive list of vegetable varieties best suited for growing in Florida, can also be found at the site. Another online IFAS resource for Florida vegetable gardening: http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/TOPIC_Vegetable_Gardening.