Associate professor Frank Mazzotti of UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences has published a new fact sheet outlining updated python statistics and methods being used to find and eliminate the snakes.

The new document follows the February release of a U. S. Geological Survey climate map that showed — based solely on climate, not habitat — pythons could potentially survive across the lower third of the United States.

Though Mazzotti’s findings may make some nervous, he said the information should be reassuring. Knowing the extent of a problem makes it much easier to solve, he said.

“All of this is good. We’ve defined the problem, and science is really coming to the aid of management efforts,” he said.

He stresses that humans are far more likely to be hurt by animals that don’t typically induce fear, such as hitting a deer with one’s car or being bitten by a dog, than by the nonvenomous snakes. But now, solving the problem must become a priority, Mazzotti said.

“People might argue the ultimate boundaries, but there’s no part of this state that you can point at and say that pythons couldn’t live here,” he said. “We really need to be addressing the spread of these pythons. They’re capable of surviving anywhere in Florida, they’re capable of incredible movement — and in a relatively short period.”

Pythons are likely to colonize anywhere alligators live, he said — including North Florida, Georgia and Louisiana. So far, most of the snakes have been found in Everglades National Park, but they’ve moved beyond its borders, too: as far north as Manatee County.

The Burmese python, native to Burma in Southeast Asia, is one of the world’s largest snake species. The largest found in the Everglades was 16 feet long and 152 pounds.

Mazzotti said there are a few places where eradication of the snakes might be possible, such as the Florida Keys.

“We need to do something so that five years from now, we’re not looking at an exponentially bigger population in those areas because we didn’t go in and get the first ones before they started breeding,” he said.

In most places, he said, the best strategy is likely a larger, focused effort to contain and reduce the population by tracking, capturing and euthanizing the reptiles.

“As soon as you know they’re breeding, eradication gets to be out of the question,” he said. “Females may store sperm, so they can produce fertile clutches for years. And a 100-something pound snake can easily be producing 60, 80 eggs a year.”

State rules that went into effect this year should help, including a $100 annual permit to own “reptiles of concern,” and a mandatory microchip, he said. But it’s imperative that more be done to educate people about the problem of turning loose non-native species, he said.

Other highlights from Mazzotti’s fact sheet, which can be found at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/UW286:

• From 2002-2005, 201 pythons were captured or found dead in and around Everglades National Park. In 2006-2007, the number more than doubled, to 418. Everglades wildlife biologist Skip Snow has estimated the population at more than 30,000.
• Since May 2006, trackers have found seven pregnant female snakes and one nest of eggs; one recently captured python had 85 developing eggs.
• Autopsied pythons found in Key Largo contained the remains of the endangered Key Largo woodrat. Other species on the pythons’ prey menu include rabbit, gray squirrel, fox squirrel, domestic cats, raccoons, bobcats, white-tailed deer, limpkin, white ibis and the American alligator.
• Not only are pythons fantastic swimmers, they can cover a lot of ground, as well. Two pythons with surgically implanted radio transmitters were found to have traveled 35 miles and 43 miles. Trackers stepped in and caught the male, concerned that it was too close to homes near a Miccosukee Indian Reservation.

Dubbed one of 2008’s culinary buzzwords by National Public Radio, microgreens — vegetables harvested soon after sprouting — are expected to be one of this summer’s hottest food trends, as well as a boon to small specialty farms that provide them to restaurants and farmers’ markets.

Experts at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences are helping farmers take advantage of the phenomenon.

“This interest in microgreens is a tremendous opportunity for a lot of the small farmers in Florida,” said Robert Hochmuth, an extension agent at IFAS’ North Florida Research and Education Center in Suwannee Valley who led the microgreen session at Tuesday’s field day. “But it’s not the same as growing regular crops. There’s a learning curve involved.”

Microgreens aren’t the same as “sprouts” or regular young vegetables. Only certain vegetables can be grown as microgreens, such as arugula, radishes and kale.

They are grown under carefully controlled greenhouse conditions on specially textured fabric mats or other growing medium. Irrigation has to be meticulously measured, and harvesting perfectly timed.

The result is a tender, colorful vegetable packed with flavor as well as nutrients. In the restaurant world, those qualities make them ideal ingredients for “designer salads” that give diners a unique culinary experience –especially during the summer months when salads typically become more popular.

“It’s so easy for salad to be boring,” said Anthony Sicignano, the executive chef of The Breakers Palm Beach. “There are the typical vegetable ingredients that form the base. People try to dress those up with toppings like cheese or meats or dressings — things that often aren’t what a person looks for in a salad.

“If you can add vegetables that add zest of flavor and texture, though, you can create a salad that tastes different and wonderful, but without violating the salad’s basic identity,” he added.

While it’s possible to grow microgreens in small, personal batches, like many home chefs do with herbs, restaurant chefs like Sicignano depend on small farmers for large quantities and variety.

“It can be a tricky business,” said Denise Francis, who runs the Twinn Bridges Farm in Macclenny, Fla., with her husband, Scott. The couple have been working with IFAS’ Hochmuth for the last three years to develop a microgreen growing program.

“The timing is everything,” she said. “Parsley is usually perfect at 25 days, while radishes usually only take five. Meanwhile, you have to plan everything out so that the chefs get the mixes of microgreens that they like.”

After much refinement, however, she said her business of supplying microgreens to the Jacksonville area is booming.

“This is a perfect example of how small farms can offer a real benefit to the local community with quality, locally grown food,” Hochmuth said. “Not only is it healthier for us and the environment, but it also makes our taste buds happy at the same time.“

Web site: UF/IFAS Small Farms, http://smallfarms.ifas.ufl.edu

The study is unusual in that it obtained breath samples from college students to measure intoxication levels after they exited bars, rather than relying on self-reports, said Virginia Dodd, a professor in UF’s department of health education and behavior.

“These drink specials foster the same mentality as an all-you-can eat buffet,” said Dodd, one of the study’s researchers. “When you pay a certain amount of money, you’re going to want to drink to get your money’s worth.”

Customers who take advantage of drink specials offered as part of such promotions as “happy hour,” “ladies night” and especially “all you can drink” were more than four times as likely to leave liquor-serving establishments with a blood-alcohol level exceeding the legal limit for driving than patrons who did not participate in a drink promotion, Dodd said.

These discounts were more important than the total number of drinks people consumed that day, the hours they spent drinking, the amount of money they spent on alcohol or whether they were of legal drinking age, said Dennis Thombs, a UF health education and behavior professor who led the research. The study is scheduled to appear in the American Journal of Health Behavior this summer.

“Contrary to what the bar management may contend, there is no doubt that drink specials influence the extent to which young people become intoxicated, and the problem is especially worrisome in those under age,” Thombs said.

Sixty-eight percent of the study’s participants under the age of 21 who took advantage of a drink special had a blood-alcohol level above the legal limit of .08 compared with only 32 percent of those aged 21 and older, the study found.

“I think what’s happening is that if younger people have gone to the trouble to get into a bar and they’re underage, they’re really going to whoop it up,” Thombs said.

Although other studies have found a direct relationship between alcohol promotions and the amount that college students drink, they have relied on students’ self-reports, Thombs said. Students may not accurately remember how many drinks they had, and self-reports don’t take into account individual differences in body weight and alcohol metabolism, which can affect intoxication levels, he said.

The researchers collected information on 177 men and 114 women — 86 percent of whom were college students — at 15 bars in Gainesville during three nights in December 2006 and three nights in May 2007. They interviewed the students as they left the bars and walked out onto the sidewalks and had them blow into a hand-held breath-testing device to determine their blood-alcohol levels. More than half of the patrons were intoxicated upon leaving the establishment, with 59 percent of the men and 57 percent of the women having blood-alcohol levels of .08 or higher, Thombs said.

There is an association between consuming four or five alcoholic beverages at least once in a two-week period with high-risk sexual behavior, poor academic performance and other problems in the college student population, Dodd said. To combat underage drinking in bars, some cities have passed laws prohibiting anyone under a certain age from entering the premises, but unless administered on a statewide basis young people often drive to other cities to avoid them, she said.

The researchers found the biggest problem was not drink markdowns so much as being able to drink an unlimited amount for a set fee, Dodd said. “We’ve seen students who have blown a really high reading into the breath tester and said, ‘Wow! I got all that for $4,’” she said.

The type of drink special that seems to cause the most all-around harm is Ladies Drink Free Night, Dodd said. “Women who become intoxicated this way are exposed to all sorts of risks, including leaving a bar with someone they don’t know and having unprotected sex,” she said. “We know it is not just college males who hang out at these bars on Ladies Night, but older men from the community as well.”

No matter what their inclination, as of June 1 many anglers will have to add three tools to their tackle boxes. New state and federal regulations will require fishermen angling for reef species in the Gulf of Mexico to carry circle hooks when fishing with natural bait, a dehooking device and a venting tool.

With the rule change fast approaching, Florida Sea Grant, in affiliation with the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, aims to quickly help bring fishermen up to speed.

Along with developing Web sites and brochures, Sea Grant will host workshops across the state along with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

“Florida is the number one fishing destination in America,” said Chuck Adams, IFAS marine economics specialist for Sea Grant. “But history has shown us that we have to work to keep it that way.”

Saltwater angling is an $8 billion industry for the Sunshine State, but the millions who cast lines can contribute to overfishing. As a result, the types, sizes and numbers of fish that can be caught have become tightly regulated, leading to a rise in popularity of catch-and-release practices.

“It’s worked — to a degree,” Adams said. “It’s not a stopping point, though. There are more anglers every year, and the fish don’t get any better at not biting.”

The three new tools are designed to improve a fish’s chance of surviving once released. The most tried and true are circle hooks, used with live or cut bait.

Shaped like a capital “G” instead of the conventional j shape, the rounded hook with its inwardly angled point is designed to slip out of a fish’s throat or stomach, but easily catch on the fish’s lip.

The benefits to the fish are obvious, but the circle hooks have their own pluses for anglers.

J-hooks must be “set” by a perfectly timed jerk of the line that imbeds the hook just as the fish takes the bait. A proper set can be frustratingly elusive. In contrast, circle hooks rely on a smooth motion that allows the hook to set on its own.

Once the fish is reeled in, the next tool comes into play.

A dehooker is a straight piece of wire with a curve or loop at the end. It’s used to dislodge the hook from the fish’s mouth without removing the fish from the water.

“The less you handle the fish out of the water, the better its chances are going to be,” says Bryan Fluech, Collier County Sea Grant marine agent. Keeping the fish out of water deprives it of oxygen, and handling its skin or scales removes a protective layer of mucous.

But taking the fish out of water can sometimes be the best way to save it. Often, when fish are caught in deep water, the pressure change while being rapidly drawn to the surface can cause an interior organ called a swim bladder to expand or rupture.

When that happens, the escaped gas gets trapped in the fish’s body cavity and exerts pressure on its internal organs. Releasing a fish in this condition renders it unable to return to its home depth and exposes it to predators.

However, a properly trained angler can help the fish survive using a venting tool.

A preferred variety of the tool, developed by IFAS and the Mote Marine Laboratory, is much like a hypodermic syringe with the plunger pulled out. The angler lays the fish on its side, sticks the needle in behind the pectoral fin at a 45-degree angle, and waits for the deflating-balloon sound to stop.

After venting, the fish can hide from predators and make a speedy recovery.

“Individually, fish are a lot more resilient than we give them credit for,” Adams said. “This is a good thing — because, collectively, people can be a lot more damaging than we like to think.”

State wildlife officials say they will give anglers time to adjust to the new rules before aggressively enforcing them.

For more information about catch and release techniques and changes to Gulf reef fishing regulations, please visit:
http://myfwc.com/marine/gearrules

Until now the revised March reading, along with January’s index, had been consumer confidence’s lowest level since December 1991, said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

“Consumer confidence in Florida is now at the same recessionary levels as it was during the 1990-91 recession,” McCarty said. “Unlike the relatively mild recession of 2001, the recession of 1990-91 resulted in a longer time to recover. This is a likely scenario for the current economy.”

Most economists believe the economy will pick up by late 2008 or early 2009, but the question remains whether it will get worse and follow the pattern of the 1973-75 recession, he said.

“The causes of lower consumer confidence are well-known to Floridians,” McCarty said. “Falling housing prices, stricter guidelines for all forms of credit, and rising gasoline and food prices are hitting consumers all at once. This has raised the possibility of ‘stagflation,’ a circumstance where gross domestic product retracts while inflation rises.”

Four of the five components that make up the index fell this month. The largest decrease was in perceptions of personal finances a year from now, which fell nine points to 79, a record low for that component. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell six points to 52, perception of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell five points to 59, a record low for that component, and perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell four points to 72. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items rose three points to 67.

Nationally, consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan has fallen to a 26-year low, McCarty said. Hardest hit are low-income households that have a far more difficult time with higher energy and food prices, he said.

In Florida, consumer confidence hit a record low of 64 in December of 1991, McCarty said. Last month’s preliminary index was 68 but was revised up to 70 when the final results were in, he said.

“The question on everyone’s mind is how we are going to get out of this slow economy?” McCarty said. “The answer is probably time. Median house prices have been falling here in Florida since late 2006, and we expect prices to bottom out in much of Florida by July.”

Many homeowners have dealt with their adjustable rate mortgages being reset at higher rates by refinancing, making the required higher payments or leaving their home altogether, McCarty said. Most banks that made bad loans have reduced the book value of assets that are overvalued compared to their market value, and investors are adjusting to these write-downs, he said.

The economic stimulus package, though a welcome relief for many households, will probably not do much to change the course of events, he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for April was conducted from 533 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

For the past decade Hygrophila polysperma — a southern Asian plant known as “hygrophila” for short — has been taking over the ecological niche left when hydrilla was eradicated from waterways, said Jim Cuda, a UF associate professor of entomology. It’s now a significant problem in South and Central Florida.

Like hydrilla, hygrophila (“high-GRAW-fill-uh”) was sold as an aquarium plant, got into Florida waters decades ago and survived. But the similarities end there.

Hydrilla is strictly a water weed, and can be controlled with herbicides, hungry grass carp or mechanical harvesting. Hygrophila can grow fully submerged or up on river banks. Herbicides aren’t very effective, grass carp don’t like it, and mechanical harvesting breaks its stems into tiny pieces capable of spawning new plants.

Given that scenario, Cuda and colleagues with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences are looking for natural enemies that attack the plant on its home turf in India.

‘There aren’t any good, cost-effective management options for hygrophila,” Cuda said. “That’s why there’s interest in biological control.”

Last fall, Cuda and entomology graduate student Abhishek Mukherjee made a collecting trip to several Indian states, described in an article published in the spring issue of Aquatics, journal of the Florida Aquatic Plant Management Society.

The researchers found evidence of at least one insect Mukherjee hopes to capture on a return trip this summer. They also collected samples of wild hygrophila that are being genetically analyzed to determine if they’re identical to plants found in Florida.

If so, that would mean insects and diseases found in the same parts of India would be likely to attack the Florida hygrophila. If not, the researchers may keep trying to pinpoint the original home of Florida hygrophila and seek enemies there.

The UF team — which includes Cuda, Mukherjee and Bill Overholt, also a UF associate professor of entomology — recently discovered that the larvae of a native moth species will feed on hygrophila.

The moth has no value as a biological control agent because it isn’t host-specific — the larvae attack more than 60 plants — and is unlikely to put a dent in hygrophila populations. But it can be a great research tool, enabling researchers to find out if hygrophila can survive defoliation, Cuda said.

Hygrophila closely resembles native alligatorweed, he said. Residents who think they’ve found a patch should not try to destroy it, but instead contact their county extension office, which can be found at www.solutionsforyourlife.com.

In the United States, hygrophila is currently growing wild only in Florida and Texas. It’s been officially confirmed in 10 Florida counties, though Cuda suspects it’s present in at least 20. Previous research indicates the weed can survive cold climates, and could potentially spread as far as hydrilla did — from Delaware to Florida, all along the Gulf Coast, and north to Washington state.

In Texas, hygrophila has already become established in two lakes and a river system, said Marcos De Jesus, a state fisheries biologist with the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. But right now, the population is small and other invasive aquatic weeds take priority.

“The money goes into chemical control or mechanical removal of these other species and hygrophila hasn’t spread enough to warrant a lot of attention,” he said.

“A tremendous slowdown is forecast over the next few years compared to what we’ve experienced during the last five years,” said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “The state has not experienced a decline of this magnitude since the mid-’70s, when we were in a national recession.”

The Sunshine State is expected to add an average of only about 209,000 residents a year between 2007 and 2010, compared with annual increases of about 418,000 people between 2002 and 2006, he said.

Although Florida remains a major destination for retirees, far more young and middle-aged people move into the state to find work than their older counterparts arrive to retire, Smith said. But declining job opportunities have stanched the influx of younger people, he said.

“The vast majority of Florida’s population growth is due to migration, and during a recession the rate of job creation slows down in Florida,” he said.

The biggest group moving to the state during the last four or five decades has typically been those in their 20s and 30s, with those 65 and older accounting for only about 15 percent of in-migration, Smith said. But younger people in their 20s and 30s also make up the biggest share of those leaving the state, which is why Florida became the nation’s oldest state after World War II, he said.

Robust real estate markets and burgeoning construction fueled Florida’s growth from 2002 to 2006, just as it did during the boom years of 1971 to 1974, Smith said. In turn, the housing market’s decline dramatically curbed population growth after 2006, just as a national recession in the ’70s sharply limited expansion between 1974 and 1977, he said.

Another reason growth typically slows during a recession in addition to the availability of fewer jobs is that people have difficulty selling their houses, which delays their move, he said.

“We’ve certainly seen a slowdown in economic growth nationally, and it’s even possible we may be in a recession right now, although we won’t know for sure until later this year,” he said.

Projections call for Florida’s population to return to more normal growth levels of about 317,000 a year between 2010 and 2020, similar to the 1980s and 1990s, Smith said. Although there also was a slowdown in growth during recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, it was nowhere near the steep decline of the 1970s or that which is taking place now, he said.

“It’s really sort of a boom-and-bust pattern that we have seen in Florida,” Smith said. “The years between 2002 and 2006 were the biggest in terms of absolute increases since the early ’70s, and then just as we experienced in the ’70s we are going from a period of high- to low-growth numbers.”

The county projected to grow the fastest in percentage terms between 2007 and 2010, Lafayette in Florida’s Big Bend, is something of an anomaly because it owes its top spot to prison construction, Smith said. It is predicted to grow from 8,215 in 2007 to 9,200 in 2010, he said.

Otherwise, many of the high-growth counties are the same as in past years, he said.

Flagler, which was the fastest-growing county between 2000 and 2007, jumping from 49,832 to an estimated 93,568, is expected to continue to expand at a rapid rate, to 103,500 by 2010, Smith said. Its coastal location, proximity to Jacksonville and relatively low cost of living, as well as the presence of the large Palm Coast development, contribute to its high ranking, he said.

Other rapidly growing counties are Sumter, which owes its surge in part to prison expansion and the increasing number of residents at The Villages retirement community, and Osceola County, which receives spillover from nearby Orlando.

In terms of absolute numbers, the counties expected to make the biggest gains between 2007 and 2010 are Miami-Dade, from 2,462,292 to 2,512,300; followed by Orange, from 1,105,603 to 1,154,200; and Hillsborough, from 1,192,861 to 1,234,900.

The overall index is two points below its January level, which then marked its worst record in 16 years, said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. In February, it rose three points to 73 before dropping in March.

“Consumer confidence is now the lowest it has been since December of 1991, when it hit a record low of 64,” he said.

Four of the five components that make up the index fell this month. The largest decrease was in perceptions about national economic conditions over the next year, which fell 12 points to 53, followed by perceptions of national economic conditions over the next five years, which fell nine points to 74. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket household items fell four points to 65, and perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell one point to 64. The only component to rise was perceptions of personal finances one year from now, which rose two points to 86.

“Given these levels and the retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau, it is clear that consumers are not in a position to revive an economy that is almost certainly in a recession,” he said.

Home sales and prices, both of which have fallen disproportionately in Florida for the past year, are among the factors affecting Floridians as well as everyone else in the United States, McCarty said.

The housing market woes have led to a shake-up in financial markets as investors across the globe questioned the prudence of U.S. lending practices, McCarty said. They are now withholding the cash needed to fund ongoing lending efforts, he said.

In response, the Federal Reserve Board has engaged in a series of unprecedented interventions to restore confidence in financial markets, including taking on mortgage debt from troubled firms such as Bear Stearns and lowering interest rates sharply, McCarty said. The drop in interest rates has contributed to the falling dollar against other currencies, which makes goods from gasoline to cereal more expensive, he said.

“Our economic problems are unlikely to turn around over the next several months,” McCarty said. “However, some of what needed to happen has already occurred.”

Home prices are falling to reasonable levels and in parts of Florida are now where they would have been without the run-up over the past few years, he said.

“We expect housing prices in many Florida markets to bottom out by July, following another weak home-buying season,” he said. “Although it will be a long time before real estate returns to 2005 prices, it will be a reasonable time for Floridians waiting to buy a house to enter the market.”

And with the passage of the property tax amendment, those Floridians with Save Our Homes equity will be in a good position to move within Florida, he said.

“Many economists expect slow growth to return by the end of the year and solid growth to return by early next year,” he said. “It is useful to keep in mind that there are investors out there with money to lend, an essential ingredient for a growing economy. When they are confident that their investments will grow, they will return.”

It also is clear from the international fallout that the U.S. economy is firmly integrated into the global markets and stands no chance of failing, he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for March was conducted from 399 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

The year before, West Nile virus unexpectedly struck nearly 3,000 people in Colorado, killing more than 60. Similar outbreaks seemed virtually inevitable throughout the country for the next year — especially in Florida, where the mosquito and bird-borne disease seemed inevitable.

Even after months of preparation, states such as California, Arizona and Texas suffered heavy casualties in 2004. In Florida, however, four major hurricanes and a tropical storm had splattered mosquito and bird populations across the state, leaving the virus no means of reproducing and spreading.

Meteorological challenges continued to hold the virus at bay for the next three years — another heavy hurricane season followed by two years of drought. But this year, the weather could actually be “normal,” and University of Florida entomologists could think of no scarier proposition.

Already this season, high levels of eastern equine encephalitis virus have been documented in parts of Central Florida. These early outbreaks may not bode well for the upcoming mosquito season.

“Depending on the summer rainfall patterns, conditions in Florida could be perfect for us to finally be hit by some of the diseases we’ve been narrowly ducking the last few years,” said Jonathan Day, professor of medical entomology at UF’s Medical Entomology Laboratory in Vero Beach, part of UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. “We’re watching very closely so we know what to prepare for.”

As Day outlines in a paper published in this month’s Journal of Medical Entomology, there is a distinct chain of events that leads to a Colorado-like epidemic, and that chain begins in early January with specific rainfall, drought and temperature patterns.

For example, a series of droughts such as those reported in peninsular Florida during the last two years, could isolate mosquitoes into small areas of moisture-rich land. During that time, the confined mosquito population interacts with the birds that are attracted to the fresh water. The birds and mosquitoes become a captive audience and cycle any virus that is trapped in that space with them.

When rains return, the now infected mosquito population would then be set free to spread the disease to other birds and animals, including humans, on which they feed.

There are currently more than 560 meteorological recording stations across Florida carefully monitoring the Sunshine State’s weather patterns.

Many in the state may already be feeling the buzzing pests’ bites, but the information gathered at the recording stations and by many other experts across the state allow an analysis of what the current conditions may mean for July — the bloom of mosquito season and potentially the most dangerous time for arboviral diseases.

Of course, mosquito-borne diseases have probably been a problem since humans first inhabited the state of Florida 15,000 years ago. However, the increasing density of the human population in Florida makes the problem far more potent, Day says.

For example, widespread outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis virus struck peninsular Florida in 1977, with 110 human cases. Thirteen years later, it struck again with 226 cases.

In his paper, Day points out how both outbreaks followed strikingly similar rainfall and drought patterns, patterns that can be tracked and are predictive of future mosquito-borne disease outbreaks.

But, of course, the crystal ball isn’t only focused on weather patterns. Knowing which mosquito species are dangerous is also vitally important.

“The type of mosquito not only tells us what kind of disease we could be dealing with, but also when and how to take precautions,” said Roxanne Rutledge Connelly, a UF entomologist who helps teach one of the most recognized courses in identifying mosquitoes in the world.

For example, if the potentially dangerous mosquito population is the Asian tiger mosquito — a relatively new invasive species to the United States known for spreading dengue fever in Hawaii and Southeast Asia — then the game is completely different than that for the vast majority of other mosquito species.

The Asian tiger mosquito not only feeds in bright sunlight, but it needs significantly less water to breed than most of its American cousins. So, control and prevention programs must consider these issues.

“We have more ability now than ever before for predicting these outbreaks and doing something about them before they get out of hand,” Day said. “There are vaccinations, animal control measures and insecticides. The truth is that our best tool is still general public awareness; but it’s the most difficult tool of all to put into use, because it takes the most time, effort and preparedness.”

See also: Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory’s Encephalitis Information System.

“It sounds like an old song resung, but our respondents are still keeping the faith in the real estate market,” said Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “It’s not that we don’t see some lessening of the market, but it’s nothing like the sensational doom that dominates the news about residential housing.”

The latest quarterly survey of Florida real estate trends completed in January and released this week shows declining optimism about commercial real estate, which had been a bulwark in the property market, Archer said. Occupancy is expected to fall for industrial, office and retail property, as rental rates are beginning to lag inflation, signaling that real rates (adjusted for inflation) may fall, he said.

Respondents continue to expect only slightly more decline in the sales for new single-family homes, while the picture for condominiums, although more pessimistic, has improved slightly, he said.

“Despite growing near-term concerns about recession, residential foreclosures, falling house prices and disruption of financial markets, our survey respondents maintain an unchanged, even slightly positive view of investment in Florida real estate at this time,” Archer said.

Although there is a staggering number of housing foreclosures in a few counties, foreclosure patterns vary widely at the statewide level, Archer said. While Lee, St. Lucie and Osceola counties are considered among the country’s foreclosure capitals, most counties in North Florida, especially Alachua and Leon counties, are in good shape, he said.

The three worst counties all share lower housing costs than surrounding counties, which attract marginal home buyers who may be eligible only for subprime mortgages, Archer said.

“If you worked in Collier County but couldn’t afford to live there — maybe you were a construction worker — where could you go?” he said. “Well, if you stretched hard and qualified for a subprime loan, you might be able to buy a house in Lee County.”

Similarly, prospective home buyers who work in West Palm Beach but can’t afford to live there may choose to move to St. Lucie County and commute, while people employed in the Orlando area might be able to afford a home in less expensive Osceola County on the southern outskirts, he said.

The rest of Florida is a little worse off than the rest of the nation but not dramatically so because its subprime meltdown is offset by the still frozen snows of the north, he said.

“There are pessimists who think people are going to pack up and leave Florida, but when I stand outside on these clear winter days, I think ‘they’re not going far,’” Archer said. “As long as people keep moving here, the growth will bring us a correction that you won’t get in industrial states like Ohio, Michigan or Illinois.”

Even in the worst counties, there are signs of Florida’s attractiveness with the growing popularity of “vulture ventures,” in which people move in to buy distressed properties thinking they can make huge profits as the market corrects itself, he said.

Another factor in Florida’s favor is the aging of the baby boomers, some of whom have considerable wealth, Archer said.

“A lot of baby boomers are closing up shop and deciding where they want to be in the future,” he said. “As you get a little older, you get a little more sensitive to the cold, and Florida is going to look pretty good to them.”

Although it won’t save Lee County on Florida’s southwest coast, prospects for international investment, especially with the weak dollar, may spell relief for the 40,000 condominiums sitting vacant in Miami, Archer said.

“With possibly half of these luxury condominiums in an urban setting with spectacular views, they could appeal to high-income individuals throughout the world, especially from Latin America,” he said. “Eventually downtown condominiums may be hard to find as land becomes scarce.”

The January report is 10th in a series. The series is the only Florida-centered survey of leaders and professional advisers in the real estate industry. The largest group of respondents was appraisers, about 61 percent, followed by consultants and brokers.

“I think a few years ago, a lot of the public wouldn’t have been comfortable eating flowers, but squash blossoms have been a real delicacy in Italian cooking for centuries,” said Sicignano, of The Breakers Palm Beach. “Now, at certain times, people just can’t get enough of them.”

The large, edible flowers that grow on some squash varieties have experienced a surge in popularity in the last few years, especially in early spring. The haute cuisine trend represents more than another Easter item on menus.

Thanks in part to researchers at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, it’s become another valuable source of income for Florida farmers.

“We get a couple of cents for each squash,” said Nancy Roe, who operates a 1,000-acre farm near Boca Raton. “But for each blossom, we can get fifty cents.”

The flowers have yet to become a substantial source of income for farmers like Roe, simply because they can’t currently grow enough.

In the past, squash farmers have focused on plants that produce female flowers — the ones that would someday produce squash. As a result, these plants would often only have one or two male flowers, the kind harvested as a food item.

Russell Nagata, an associate professor at the IFAS Everglades Research and Education Center in Belle Glade, is working with farmers like Roe to change that. In 2005, Nagata and his colleagues began evaluating which types of squash can deliver both vegetables and flowers for maximum profit.

Overall, zucchinis seem to deliver the most bang for the buck — however, the flower business isn’t always just about volume. It can also be about timing.

Demand for the blossoms only comes at certain times, and anticipating those times and having flowers available can be tricky.

“Sometimes the plants are ready to do in the winter months,” Nagata said. “And you can imagine that that’s not always the time when people see flowers on their plate.”

To further complicate matters, the blossoms only have a shelf life of one to two days before they become useless to chefs, who are highly selective about the bright yellow-orange colors and firm texture the flowers must possess.

“There is more demand for these flowers now because people are more educated than ever about food because of the popularity of food shows on television,” executive chef Sicignano said. “So, the exciting part is that we can now use what many would consider nontraditional food items in our cuisine. The challenging side is that those items have to be up to expectations of a more informed dining audience.”

Raw, the flowers offer a refreshing, almost cucumber-like taste. Uncooked, the flowers are commonly used as a garnish on main dishes.

“But that’s probably the most boring thing you can do with them,” Sicignano said.

With a background in Italian cooking from his experience at the Waldorf Astoria in New York, the chief prefers to prepare the blossoms as appetizers — such as stuffed with a crab and corn blend and then tempura fried.

“Both diners and farmers have become more educated, and now many chefs are excited because we can offer the types of dishes we’ve been hiding away on our own home dinner tables for years,” Sicignano said.

A University of Florida study suggests that repeatedly using large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer can ignite a population explosion of Southern chinch bugs — the No. 1 insect pest of St. Augustinegrass, the state’s most popular turfgrass.

The findings were presented in Jacksonville today at an Entomological Society of America meeting.

“Everything in moderation,” said Eileen Buss, an associate professor of entomology with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. “When we try to overly manage a natural system we get the balance out of whack.”

UF turfgrass experts advise homeowners to use no more than 1 pound of slow-release nitrogen fertilizer per 1,000 square feet of lawn, a recommendation found in the document “St. Augustinegrass for Florida Lawns,” available at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/LH010.

In the study, Southern chinch bugs produced the most eggs on St. Augustinegrass fed the equivalent of 2 pounds nitrogen per 1,000 square feet per month.

That rate is a worst-case scenario, she said, but not unrealistic because people sometimes deliberately overfertilize in their zest to have the greenest lawn in the neighborhood.

That more-is-better approach has become riskier in the past five years because Southern chinch bugs in Citrus, Escambia, Flagler, Hillsborough, Lake, Orange and Volusia counties have developed resistance to pyrethroids, the class of pesticides commonly used to control the insects, Buss said.

Resistant chinch bugs may be able to survive exposure to bifenthrin, a pyrethroid that is the top choice for Southern chinch bug control in Florida. However, pyrethroids should still perform well against nonresistant populations of Southern chinch bugs.

Buss co-authored the study with turfgrass specialist Laurie Trenholm, an associate professor of environmental horticulture, and doctor of plant medicine student Megan Gilbert.

Conducted at a UF research facility in Citra, it involved chinch bugs raised on St. Augustinegrass that received nitrogen fertilizer at one of five rates, equivalent to 0, 0.5, 1, 2 or 4 pounds of nitrogen per 1,000 square feet of turf, applied monthly.

The chinch bugs were paired to reproduce, each pair placed in a cage containing St. Augustinegrass fertilized at the same rate the insects previously experienced. The results showed females raised on grass given 0 or 0.5 pounds nitrogen produced 15 to 20 eggs per week; those on grass given 1 or 2 pounds produced 25 to 35. Females on grass given 4 pounds briefly produced 45 eggs per week, then declined to 20.

Adult female Southern chinch bugs live about two months, and produce eggs the entire time.

Buss said female chinch bugs produce more eggs on healthy St. Augustinegrass, which accounts for the differences in egg production. Future research may examine the role of the nutrients phosphorus and potassium in chinch bug population growth, and the possibility that overfertilization may reduce turfgrass resistance to chinch bugs.

Though this study was conducted in a laboratory rather than a yard, Buss says the results are relevant to homeowners. Southern chinch bugs don’t move around much, staying in the same area unless they can’t find food.

And with the insects producing a new generation every four to six weeks during Florida summers, increased egg-laying could lead to rapid population growth in overfed lawns.

Buss said she’s not sure how applicable the results are in other Gulf Coast states where St. Augustinegrass is commonly grown, due to environmental differences.

Studies on other chinch bug species elsewhere in the United States show that it’s common for nitrogen fertilizer to boost egg production, said chinch bug expert Fred Baxendale, an entomology professor with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

“What Dr. Buss is seeing is in line with prior research,” he said. “I think her research is interesting, I think it’s valid and it needs to be taken further.”

Four of the five components that make up the index rose this month. The largest increase was in perceptions of national economic conditions over the next year, which jumped 11 points to 66, followed by expectations of national economic conditions over the next five years, which rose eight points to 82. Two components edged up two points: perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago to 67, and expectations of personal finances a year from now to 84. The only component to fall was perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, which dropped three points to 71, its lowest point since December 1991.

“We certainly did not expect this increase,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “We think the overall rise this month is a reaction to the passage of the stimulus package that will result in payments to a majority of Florida households as well as the passage of the property tax amendment, which was supported by 64 percent of the voters. Both of these are, at least temporarily, bright spots for Florida consumers.”

The data over the past two months shows that confidence fell steadily through January, rose during the first week of February and increased dramatically in the second week, McCarty said. By the third week of February, confidence had fallen to January levels, he said.

“We expect this month’s overall rise in confidence to be a temporary increase and that confidence will decline next month,” he said.

Higher consumer confidence levels come at a time when policy makers are trying to avert a recession or at least minimize the effects of one, McCarty said. However, the positive effects of both the stimulus package and the property tax amendment will probably be short-lived, and the Federal Reserve Board’s decision to cut interest rates carries some negative side effects, he said.

“By lowering interest rates, which may help loosen credit for borrowers, the Federal Reserve has further weakened the dollar against other currencies,” McCarty said. “This has contributed to the rise in the price of oil and other commodities as can be seen in the recent rise in the price of a gallon of gas, which has increased more than seven cents in the past week.”

Although the stimulus package offers a welcome rebate check, those borrowed funds add to the deficit, McCarty said.

“And the property tax amendment will no doubt result in fewer services at the local level, and may have long-term downside effects on the state economy as homeowners take their tax exemptions with them when moving in Florida,” he said.

There are some bright spots for Florida homeowners hoping to sell, though, McCarty said. For instance, the property tax amendment makes it more affordable to move to a new home, he said. The stimulus package passed by Congress temporarily increases the loan amounts that can be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from $417,000 to $729,750, and Florida has no shortage of homes in this price range, he said.

Interest rates have declined in response to the cuts by the Federal Reserve, although recently the credit markets are not moving in sync with the Fed rate cuts, McCarty said. Most importantly, average home prices have been falling to a point where they are approaching the level they would have been at this time without the housing run-up, he said.

“We anticipate that by July home prices in many areas of Florida will be at or near bottoming out,” he said. “This should attract some buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for prices to stabilize, assuming they can quality for a loan.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for February was conducted from 408 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

Except for 1987, when there were no fatalities, the last year a single human death occurred from a shark attack was in 1985, said George Burgess, director of the International Shark Attack File housed at UF’s Florida Museum of Natural History. By comparison, there were four deaths each in 2005 and 2006, and seven in 2004.

“It’s quite spectacular that for the hundreds of millions of people worldwide spending hundreds of millions of hours in the water in activities that are often very provocative to sharks, such as surfing, there is only one incident resulting in a fatality,” he said. “The danger of a shark attack stays in the forefront of our psyches because of it being drilled into our brain for the last 30 years by the popular media, movies, books and television, but in reality the chances of dying from one are infinitesimal.”

Advances in medical treatment, greater attention to beach safety practices and increased public awareness about the danger of shark attacks are all likely reasons the fatality rate so far for the 21st century, at 7.6 percent, has been lower than the 12.3 percent recorded for the 1990s, Burgess said.

The number of shark attacks overall increased from 63 in 2006 to 71 in 2007, continuing a gradual upswing during the past four years, he said.

“One would expect there to be more shark attacks each year than the previous year simply because there are more people entering the water,” he said. “For baby boomers and earlier generations, going to the beach was basically an exercise in working on your suntan where a swim often meant a quick dunking. Today people are engaged in surfing, diving, boogie boarding and other aquatic activities that put them much closer to sharks.”

Occasionally, the number of attacks may drop in a particular year because of changes in meteorological or oceanographic conditions that affect water temperature and salinity, such as the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms, Burgess said. But scientists don’t put too much stock in these year-to-year fluctuations, preferring to look at long-term trends, he said.

Traditionally, about half of the world’s attacks occur in United States mainland and Hawaiian waters, but the proportion was greater in 2007, Burgess said. Last year’s total of 50 attacks returned to 2000 and 2001 levels of 53 and 50, respectively, after dropping from 30 to 40 for each year between 2003 and 2006, he said.

Elsewhere, there were 12 attacks in Australia, up from seven in 2006 and 10 in 2005, but down slightly from the 13 attacks recorded in 2004. There were two attacks each last year in South Africa and New Caledonia, with single incidents reported in Fiji, Ecuador, Mexico and New Zealand.

There also was an upswing in attacks along the Florida coast, jumping from 23 in 2006 to 32 in 2007. There has been a gradual increase in human-shark skirmishes in the Sunshine State since they dropped from 37 in 2000 to an 11-year-low of 12 in 2004, he said.

Within Florida, Volusia County continued its dubious distinction as the world’s shark bite capital with 17 incidents, its highest yearly total since 2002, Burgess said. Attractive waves off New Smyrna Beach on the central Atlantic coast are popular with surfers, he said.

Additional U.S. attacks were recorded in Hawaii — seven — marking a five-year-high, along with South Carolina, five; California, three; North Carolina, two; and Texas, one.

Fifty-six percent of the 2007 victims were surfers and windsurfers; followed by swimmers and waders, 38 percent; and divers and snorkelers, 6 percent.

Last year’s Sept. 30 fatal attack involved a 23-year-old woman from France who was snorkeling off the Loyalty Islands archipelago in French New Caledonia and became separated from a friend, Burgess said. She was a nurse who had just finished a hospital contract in Noumea and was taking a brief vacation before flying home, he said.

“We advise not getting yourself isolated because there is safety in numbers,” he said. “Sharks, like all predators, tend to go after solitary individuals, the weak and the infirm, and are less likely to attack people or fish in groups.”

Last year had few spectacular attacks or heartwarming rescue stories, Burgess said. “It was mostly minor injuries,” he said. “There weren’t too many made-for-movie moments.”

“Consumer confidence in Florida reflects the same conditions we had during the recession of 1990-91,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Florida is almost certainly in a recession now, and the country is not far behind. Most economists agree that we are in for at least two quarters of very low growth.”

This month’s drop to its lowest level since December 1991 is due to declines in four of the five components that make up the index. The biggest drop was in consumers’ expectations about national economic conditions over the next year, which fell 10 points to 55, its lowest level since August 1992.

Two components fell five points. Perceptions of national economic conditions over the next five years sank to 74, and expectations about personal finances a year from now dipped to 82. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items fell one point to 74. The only component to rise was perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago, which edged up one point to 65.

“There is still some possibility that recessionary conditions will remain localized to some states, such as Florida and California,” McCarty said, noting that the preliminary consumer confidence reading for the nation from the University of Michigan was up five points to 80, a full 10 points higher than Florida.

“Unfortunately, these states that are experiencing recession conditions make up a very large part of the total U.S. economy,” he said. “It is very possible that the effects of the housing crunch in these states may result in a recession for the entire country, if we aren’t in one already.”

The hope is that the economic stimulus package making its way through Congress will negate some of the effects of the housing crisis and its related effects on credit markets by at least temporarily getting consumers back in the stores, McCarty said.

“If consumers can continue to support the economy until exports and business investment increase, the recession may be more like 2001 than 1990-91,” he said.

The 2001 recession was mild compared with the 1990-91 downturn, which lasted three quarters and resulted in the loss of nearly 2 million jobs, he said.

“The worst case is a scenario like the 1970s when the country experienced two recessions with long-lasting effects,” he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for January was conducted from 533 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.