“Most economists think the recession is over, but people are afraid to spend money as unemployment keeps going up, which creates problems for every sector of the real estate market,” said Timothy Becker, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, which conducts the quarterly survey.

Florida’s unemployment rate climbed to 11 percent in September, its highest level since 1975, Becker said. That, along with a large number of foreclosures, places Florida near the bottom of states expected to recover from the economic downturn, he said.

“Florida was the first one into the recession and it’s probably going to be the last one out,” he said.

The latest survey finds commercial real estate the weakest sector of the economy, with no improvement expected until the job market turns around, Becker said. As retailers struggle, they are asking landlords for rent abatements, and instead of expanding, are deciding not to renew leases and even close stores, he said.

“Discount retailers like the Dollar Store and Dollar Tree seem to be weathering the hard times, but in most cases retailers are not doing well,” he said.

In some cases, though, vacant storefronts may be a sign that some retailers have departed for fancier venues, Becker said. Retailers with money on hand are able to find better locations at better rents than were available in the past, he said.

“One of our respondents said that the old adage of ‘location, location, location’ really means something right now in the ability to lease at premiere locations,” he said. “It’s the second-tier properties that are struggling.”

The state’s high unemployment rate also has taken its toll on the housing sector, Becker said. Although the foreclosure market is “going gangbusters” right now because of extremely low prices, total sales of single-family homes will probably decline as people’s uncertainty about whether they will continue to have jobs grows, he said.

Survey respondents expressed fear about another large wave of housing foreclosures if more people lose jobs and fall behind on their mortgage payments, Becker said. “There is a lot of speculation that there could be a double-dip recession, where we recover just a little bit and then go back into recession again,” he said.

An $8,000 tax credit available to first-time home buyers is scheduled to be phased out after November, Becker said. The foreseeable end to that government initiative, along with the high unemployment rate and large number of foreclosures, has resulted in fewer new homes, he said.

“Builders are being very selective about what they build,” he said. “They don’t want to get into a situation where they have large inventories again.”

One positive finding in the survey was increasing optimism about one’s own business outlook, Becker said. Respondents believe that an expected wave of foreclosures in the commercial real estate market will lower depressed prices even further, offering tremendous opportunities for future investment, he said.

Although the outlook for readily available capital has not improved as banks continue their reluctance to lend money, survey respondents believe that foreign investment may provide some relief, Becker said. With the favorability of exchange rates for the Euro against the dollar and the availability of desirable commercial property at low prices, international investors are starting to enter Florida’s real estate market, he said.

“Everybody thinks that Florida will rebound because we have so much going for us – the sun shines every day and there are a lot of advantages to living here, he said. “Foreign investors see that too and believe their prospects are good for long term investments.”

Until some of the uncertainties in the marketplace are resolved, though, including the fate of foreclosures and availability of financing, it is unlikely that confidence in Florida’s real estate markets will make steady gains, Becker said.

“As one of our respondents put it, ‘Uncertainty is the most dangerous market condition delaying recovery,’” he said. “While there are going to be improvements some quarters and declines other quarters, we’re mostly going to be bouncing along the bottom for awhile.”

The quarterly report is the most extensive survey of Florida professional real estate analysts and investors conducted on an ongoing basis. The 268 participants in the most recent survey represent 13 of the state’s urban regions and up to 15 property types.

“Florida leads the nation in bicyclists killed in traffic crashes, even outpacing California, which has about twice its population,” said Dan Connaughton, a professor in UF’s department of Tourism, Recreation and Sport Management and the program’s director. “Other than the motor vehicle, there is no other commercial product that leaves more children injured than bicycles.”

Statistics from the Florida Department of Transportation show that 118 bicyclists were killed and 4,380 were injured in the state in 2008, he said.

About 90 percent of children’s deaths on bicycles occur when they dart into traffic from a driveway or when they cycle through a stop sign, Connaughton said. The vast majority of bicycle fatalities result from head injuries, with some studies estimating that the simple act of properly wearing a bicycle helmet reduces the risk of head injury by up to 85 percent, he said.

The mission of the Florida Traffic and Bicycle Safety Education Program is to reduce injuries and fatalities by teaching children the lifelong skills needed to be competent, as well as predictable, cyclists and pedestrians.

Connaughton received a three-year contract from the Florida Department of Transportation’s Safety Office to administer statewide workshops to “teach the teachers” bicycle and traffic safety tips they can pass on to their students. Using curriculums specifically designed for elementary, middle and high schools, Connaughton works with certified cycling instructors around the state in delivering the free workshops. Workshops are currently scheduled in Alachua County on Thursday, with others to be held in Pinellas and Lee counties later this fall.

For younger children, the curriculum covers such basics as safely crossing streets, traffic signals and related laws, and school bus safety, said Connaughton, who is an expert in sport safety and risk management. The curriculum also addresses traffic and bicycle laws, helmet importance and correct use, how to perform a bicycle safety inspection, how to navigate a bicycle while sharing the road, and other traffic and bicycle safety skills, he said.

“We feel it’s extremely important to educate our youth at a young age,” he said. “Our hope is that as they become more knowledgeable and experienced pedestrians and bicyclists, that some of these skills will translate into them becoming safer motor vehicle drivers.”

According to the National Safety Council, the total cost of bicycle injuries and deaths is almost $5.4 billion a year, Connaughton said.

“Besides saving lives, this program has a tremendous impact on the state’s economy,” Connaughton said. “By cutting down on the number of cars on the road, we reduce traffic congestion as well as our dependence on fuel and the environmental costs associated with it. And with the rise in obesity, getting young people to be more active eliminates a substantial number of health problems and the costs that go with them.”

The program works with Safe Routes to School programs throughout Florida to encourage more children to walk or bike safely to school and ties in with the goals of the Florida Department of Transportation’s Pedestrian/Bicycle Program, he said.

Bicycle use has increased in the United States as more people recognize the importance of physical activity and as rising gas prices make it a popular commuting alternative, Connaughton said. “Along with the greening of America, there are more people on bicycles than ever before,” he said.

The success of American Lance Armstrong in winning the Tour de France seven years in a row also has created an interest in bicycling, particularly the sport of racing, he said.

The program and its instructors also train law enforcement personnel and recreation leaders to teach bicycle safety in their local communities. Future plans call for developing a university curriculum to educate college students about traffic and bicycle safety in Florida, he said.

The program estimates that each trained teacher passes the information on to 100 children per year. The training workshops cover outside on-bike skill practice and classroom instruction with curriculum overviews, including interactive videos and activity worksheets.

School districts interested in hosting traffic and bicycle safety training workshops can contact the program at 352-392-4042, ext. 1370. More information about the Florida Traffic and Bicycle Safety Education Program can be found at: http://www.hhp.ufl.edu/safety/index.html.

“Consumers are more optimistic this month about their current personal finances and less optimistic about the U.S. economy in both the short and long term,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “They remain bullish on buying opportunities and are likely to be even more optimistic when they see the drastically lower prices in the coming months from retailers trying to boost holiday sales among the most cautious U.S. consumers since the Great Depression.”

However, as the holidays approach, most forecasts predict no growth in retail sales over what turned out to be an extremely disappointing 2008 season, McCarty said.

“Floridians should prepare for more bad news through the first quarter of 2010,” he said. “If retail sales growth is as low as expected, sales tax revenues will not meet expectations.”

With decreasing revenues and increasing costs, the state could see a $2.6 billion budget deficit, McCarty said. “That will mean increased taxes and fees and certainly more cost-cutting by the Florida Legislature as the spring session unfolds,” he said.

September’s final consumer confidence index dropped two points from the initial reported reading of 74 when an additional week of interviews were included in survey results at the end of the month, McCarty said. Florida’s consumer confidence index had slowly inched up from 67 in July to 71 in August and 72 in September before stalling in October, he said.

“The revision downward and the flat reading this month is more in line with what we had been expecting,” McCarty said. “Given the economic environment in Florida and the U.S., the preliminary reading of 74 last month seemed high.”

Two of this month’s five components increased while three declined. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items rose three points to 83 and perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose three points to 45. Expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell three points to 71, while expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell three points to 81. Perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell one point to 80.

Florida’s economic picture remains mixed, when housing, the stock market and retailing are all taken into consideration, McCarty said.

“Home prices in most Florida markets have held steady over the past few months although they are down an average of 43 percent from the peak values reached in June 2006,” he said. “It is unclear how much of this stability is due to activity from first-time home buyers who took advantage of the $8,000 tax credit due to expire Dec. 1.”

The most recent mortgage applications survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a large decline in applications for both new mortgages and refinancing, suggesting that sales may fall in the coming months without the tax rebate, McCarty said. Potentially, this could decrease home prices even more, even though prices are already down to 2002-2003 levels, he said.

In other bad news, unemployment in Florida has risen to 11 percent, McCarty said. With retail sales remaining quite low, that will likely contribute to further unemployment in many of the state’s metro areas as the holiday season unfolds, he said.

And as unemployment rises, the number of Floridians on Medicaid will continue to climb, increasing costs to taxpayers, he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for October was conducted from 408 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year, he said.

The mandarin hybrid — a mix of the sweet Clementine and the colorful, bell-shaped Minneola — has a rich taste and strong aroma, said UF Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences plant breeder Fred Gmitter.

The new sweet-tart fruit may be best described as a mandarin with a tangy punch.

“Many old-timers in citrus have said this is the best-tasting citrus they’ve ever had,” Gmitter said.

The fruit, which has a patent pending and is also known as LB8-9, has been in the works since 1985.

Mark McLellan, IFAS’ dean for research, said he believes the time that went into breeding this variety will be worthwhile.

“Sugar Belle is positioned in a unique market window, and its flavor characteristics are expected to make this variety a consumer favorite,” he said. “We’re very excited to offer it on behalf of the university.”

Recently, Florida Foundation Seed Producers Inc., a direct support organization of UF, awarded an exclusive U.S. license to the New Varieties Development and Management Corporation.

Funded by the Florida Citrus Commission, the not-for-profit corporation was set up in 2005
to help assure Florida growers access to new patented citrus varieties, manage new varieties and direct resources to citrus breeding research.

The corporation was granted the exclusive license for the fruit through the university’s Invitation to Negotiate process, designed to benefit everyone from IFAS to citrus growers.

“It’s becoming more common for grower-backed organizations to help monitor the markets for growers and ensure that everyone has a chance to be successful,” said John Beuttenmuller, the intellectual property and licensing director for Florida Foundation Seed Producers, which led the ITN process.

In that process, a company is selected to deliver new cultivars to the public. In return, the company pays royalties back to the Florida Foundation Seed Producers and the Florida Agricultural Experiment Station, to be reinvested in breeding and development programs.

Sugar Belle is a unique variety, said the corporation’s executive director, Peter Chaires. He believes it will make a big splash in the $52 million specialty citrus market.

Chaires describes its flavor almost like one would describe a fine wine.

“It has a flavor that takes it to the top of the show wherever it goes. It’s got a very, very deep flavor,” he said. “I don’t want to say it’s rich, but it’s a very deep, complex flavor.”

Despite strong ties to the citrus industry, UF has never before released a citrus cultivar developed solely by its scientists — likely because citrus breeding is an excruciatingly slow endeavor. The average time for new citrus — from creation to its commercial release — can be up to 20 years.

And in this case, what became the UF’s inaugural citrus variety could just as easily have been plowed under.

Gmitter, who arrived at UF’s Citrus Research and Education Center in Lake Alfred as an assistant professor in 1985, was a young plant breeder desperate for citrus trees to work with. After locating a small tract of trees left by a retired professor, Gmitter went for a look.

“I went out in early November of my first year … This one tree had beautiful, bright orange fruit. The best citrus I’d ever eaten in my life,” Gmitter said. Those trees were used to create his new cultivar.

UF officials hope Sugar Belle will be as lucky when it comes to reaching consumers — which could be as early as this year, in some markets.

The fruit matures early, so it should be a good fit for the December holiday market, Chaires said. It can be grown in a manner to produce low-seeded fruit. And with his organization keeping tabs on how the fruit fares in groves and the economics of the citrus market, he believes the new fruit has the potential to be a big hit.

“Every time we’ve tested it with different groups, it’s been wildly popular,” he said.

UF Tech Connect received the Award of Excellence in Technology Commercialization from the University Economic Development Association. The center reported helping client companies generate more than $86.9 million in private investments and create more than 77 jobs in Fiscal Year 2008.

UF Tech Connect was one of three finalists, along with the University of South Florida and the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development.

“We are thrilled to be recognized for our contribution to the regional and state economy,” said Chris Brown, UF Tech Connect coordinator, who accepted the award at the 2009 Summit of the University Economic Development Association Oct. 11-13 in San Antonio.

“The UF Tech Connect program plays an important role in bringing together UF faculty, entrepreneurs and investors,” said Jane Muir, director of UF Tech Connect. “We’re honored to be recognized as a leader in the creation of high-tech companies and jobs in the state.”

UF Tech Connect is at the pulse-point of the region’s high-tech startup activity and serves as a magnet for entrepreneurs and investors seeking new opportunities. The center also develops new programs and sponsors events that foster new business creation.

“The UF Tech Connect program plays an important role in helping to commercialize university discoveries by helping create technology-based startup companies,” said Win Phillips, UF vice president for research.

Established in 1976, the University Economic Development Association focuses on the nexus between higher education institutions and economic development partners. Many EDA-funded University Centers choose to join this professional organization for a number of reasons, including UEDA’s efforts to:

• promote the role of higher education in economic development;
• provide valuable training and networking opportunities to members; and
• increase the effectiveness of, and the appreciation for, higher education in regional and national economic development strategy.

To learn more about UEDA go to http://www.universityeda.org/.

Headquartered at the University of Florida Office of Technology Licensing, UF Tech Connect was created as a partnership between UF and the U.S. Economic Development Administration to provide a venue for bringing together the necessary elements to create companies.

As the University of Florida’s main commercialization center, OTL has in-depth experience in technology management and commercialization. For more information about UF Tech Connect, visit http://www.otl.ufl.edu/ or contact Chris Brown, coordinator, at 352-846-1840.

“The economic benefits of an advancement like this in a health care field are tremendous, particularly in a state like Florida where there are so many elderly and people with hearing impairments,” said Alice Holmes, a professor in UF’s Department of Communicative Disorders at the College of Public Health and Health Professions. “If you develop a hearing loss, you may end up having to retire early or go on disability. By keeping people functioning in society, it has all sort of positive outcomes.”

At the suggestion of one of Holmes’ patients at UF’s hearing clinic, who was severely hearing impaired, she and other UF researchers pioneered a way to program digital hearing aid devices and cochlear or inner ear implants, based on speech sounds such as “aba,” “ata” and “asha” instead of tonal beeps. People with hearing loss can now hear spoken words much more clearly and their hearing aid devices can be adjusted in a fraction of the time, Holmes said.

“I really think we have the possibility of revolutionizing how digital hearing devices can be programmed,” said Holmes, who collaborated with Rahul Shrivastav, another UF professor in communicative disorders, and Purvis Bedenbaugh, a former UF neuroscience professor. “Our next step is looking into the possibility of accomplishing the same thing with cell phones.”

After UF researchers received a patent, Lee Krause, Holmes’ patient whose training in computer engineering led him to propose the idea of using speech sounds, started the company Audigence Inc. in Melbourne to develop and market the software.

Audigence, which now has 12 employees, is licensing the technology to a hearing aid company in Orlando, Holmes said. “We’re hoping to have the product launched in October at the national meeting of the Academy of Dispensing Audiology in Clearwater,” she said.

In addition, a major clinical trial is now under way with an international hearing aid company that could result in another licensing agreement within the next year, she said.

The arrival of these products on the market will offer economic benefits to audiology clinics as well as improving the lives of their patients, Holmes said. By being able to program hearing aids quicker with better results, audiologists can see greater numbers of patients in a shorter period of time, she said.

An estimated 31 million Americans have hearing loss that could be helped by some form of amplification, yet only about 20 percent of them use hearing aids, Holmes said. Besides the stigma attached to hearing aids, many people who should wear them give up because they are adjusted incorrectly, she said.

“Hearing loss, particularly in the older population, is second only to arthritis as a permanent disability,” she said.

The problem with the traditional method for programming hearing aid devices is it relies on standardized formulas developed for the average patient, while the UF technology customizes the tuning to a patient’s individual hearing deficiencies, Holmes said. Hearing loss occurs at different pitches, which vary from one person to the next, she said.

Krause, chief executive officer and president of Audigence, had lost so much hearing that he needed a cochlear implant, an electrical device that is attached in one’s head and stimulates auditory nerves. Krause continued to have difficulty understanding human speech, especially on the phone, but that changed when it was programmed by speech sounds, Holmes said.

“We do conference calls probably every other day and he leads the calls,” she said. “I almost think he hears better than I do at times.”

Oysters are typically considered safest to eat in cooler months (September through April) because the shellfish-infecting bacteria in the genus Vibrio flourish best in warm temperatures.

Even in the “r” months, slurping an oyster opens some people to infection from these bacteria, which can cause fever, nausea, abdominal pain, diarrhea and has even led to finger amputation when it’s given a chance to penetrate a cut or skin lesion.

However, a new quick and inexpensive diagnostic test developed by DuPont Qualicon and refined by UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences could make weeding out pathogen-loaded oysters much more practical and efficient. Oysters are a $14 million industry in the Sunshine State, according to the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

The test is based on a technology dubbed “quantitative polymerase chain reaction,” or QPCR diagnostics. Given a small sampling of oyster, shrimp or ahi tuna, the system tracks genetic material found in three harmful species of Vibrio by amplifying their DNA into large amounts that are easily detected.

This is the first time this technology could be used in detecting pathogens in seafood on an industrial scale. So, after initially developing the basic lab-bench test, DuPont turned to UF to prepare it for commercial use and regulatory approval.

“Whether you have raw oysters or if you’re trying to validate some sort of treatment method, the old way of testing these bacteria in oysters just isn’t very practical because it’s pricy and takes about a week,” said Anita Wright, a UF food science professor whose Florida Sea Grant work is validating and expanding applications of the new test for seafood processing and research purposes.

This USDA-funded research evaluates treatments such as freezing, high pressure, irradiation, or mild heating, and is funded by the Florida Gulf Coast Oyster Industry Council.

Wright will present findings from her work at the Oct. 17-23 biennial meeting of the Interstate Shellfish Sanitation Conference, followed by a workshop to demonstrate the methodology. Her findings will also be published in the next issue of the American Organization of Analytical Chemists.

The ISSC is a shellfish regulatory cooperation that will determine if the test is reliable enough to be used industrywide. If approved, the test could be an especially big boon for oyster harvesters in the Gulf of Mexico, the source of a third of all U.S. oysters.

Warmer water temperatures and factors such as pollution make Vibrio species a major concern for Gulf-harvested shellfish. Forty percent or more of Gulf oysters carry these pathogens in the “non-r” months, according to the FDA.

Now, scientists with the University of Florida and several other institutions have been awarded a three-year, $1.4 million National Science Foundation grant to research transmission of the virus, known as PaV1.

The research should answer many lingering questions about the spread and geographic distribution of the pathogen, and could lead to management strategies and new methods for identifying infected lobsters, said Don Behringer, an assistant professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

One of the main issues to be investigated: whether the virus is dispersed long distances by lobster larvae, which float hundreds of miles during their first months. Infected spiny lobsters have been found in far-flung places, including the Florida Keys and parts of Mexico, Belize and St. Croix.

“This project will give us insight into how pathogens are spread in the marine environment,” said Behringer, a co-discoverer of the virus. “Anything we can do to understand how the disease spreads, and how we might limit its spread, has implications for management of the disease.”

If the study confirms that PaV1 is spread by lobster larvae, that would have implications for other species and other diseases, because many marine animals go through a free-floating larval stage, said Mark Butler, a professor with Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va.

During the project, researchers will examine possible forms of virus transmission, the virus’ effects on lobsters, and factors influencing local disease outbreaks, Butler said. They will also hold workshops for fishermen and resource managers in Florida and the Caribbean.

The virus was discovered in 1999 by Behringer, Butler and Jeffrey Shields with the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. Many of the early findings regarding PaV1 epidemiology came while the team was working at the Keys Marine Laboratory located on Long Key. This work showed that the disease primarily kills juvenile spiny lobsters, though some become infected without apparent harm.

The PaV1 virus attacks blood cells and tissues, causing lobsters to become listless and solitary, Behringer said. Most eventually die from metabolic depletion, a condition characterized by loss of energy.

Beginning with the 2000-2001 lobster season, harvest declined approximately 30 percent from previous harvest years and has yet to rebound, said John Hunt, a longtime lobster biologist and program manager with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

Hunt said he believes the virus is a likely cause of the reduction.

Florida produces more than 90 percent of the nation’s spiny lobster; in 2007 the harvest was about 3.8 million pounds, with a dockside value of $27 million, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. Recreational lobster diving is also a significant tourist industry.

The Caribbean spiny lobster is found in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean, from Bermuda to Brazil, Behringer said.

In the United States, spiny lobster represents less than 10 percent of national lobster production, with Maine lobster accounting for 90 percent or more, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Worldwide, Maine and spiny lobster each represent about one-third of the total harvest.

The research team includes faculty and students from UF, Old Dominion, the University of Miami and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science.

Behringer, Butler and other members of the research team are researching methods for managing PaV1, with funding from the Florida Sea Grant program.

“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Once again they have surprised us with a higher than expected index.”

This month’s three-point rise follows a four-point revised increase in August. Of the five components that make up September’s index, three rose, one declined and one was unchanged. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 44, only five points above its all-time low of 39 in December. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell three points to 81.

In contrast, perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose three points to 75, while expectations about economic conditions over the next five years rose five points to 86. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, such as appliances and cars, rose nine points to 84.

“It is worth noting that the two index components that gauge perceptions of personal finances both now and in the future are flat or down,” McCarty said. “All of the increase is in perceptions of future economic conditions and in the perception that if you have the money it’s a good time to buy.”

There are some signs that the economy is improving, he said.

Once again the median price of a single-family home is virtually flat compared with the previous month, and up for the year, suggesting that housing prices in many areas of Florida have bottomed out, McCarty said. Although foreclosures are still high, the rate seems to be declining, he said.

In other good news, inflation and, in particular, gas prices remain low overall compared with a year ago, McCarty said. In the past few years, gas prices have dominated the consumer confidence index, he said.

In addition, the stock market is still up for the year and at least for now appears stable, he said.

“On the negative side, unemployment remains at 10.7 percent for Florida,” he said. “This number is not expected to improve much until next year, and it could still get worse. Florida lost population this past year and could do so again as the underlying problems preventing people from moving are still in place.”

Tourisms both domestically and internationally also are down as consumers trim discretionary spending, McCarty said. Retail sales were at least temporarily lifted by such programs as Cash for Clunkers, but sales tax revenues in Florida have dropped 10 percent from a year ago, he said.

“In the near term we expect consumer confidence to decline at least a point or two as the holiday season nears and stimulus programs like Cash for Clunkers and rebates for first-time home buyers expire,” he said. “The discussion about health care reform will be at center stage this fall and may affect confidence if the plans involve increased payments from the middle class.”

Also of economic concern is that at some point extended unemployment benefits will run out, putting more pressure on the unemployed, he said.

In the long term, consumers need to be prepared for the inevitable drawing back of stimulus money from the economy, he said.

The U.S. government effectively printed money to avoid a depression, and at some point most of the money will have to be withdrawn from the economy to avoid inflation and a very weak dollar, McCarty said. When that happens, interest rates will rise dramatically, he said.

“We also have to think about how the Florida economy will adjust moving forward,” he said. “It is likely that discussions about off-shore drilling will receive much more attention as Florida looks for industries to replace those dependent on population growth.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for September was conducted from 412 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

But those and other multiplying “apps” for smart phones are only the crest of a wave of smart clothing, toys and tools that will reshape everyday life, just as portable wireless technology has reshaped human interactions and business through social networking, Twitter and online shopping.

A preview of upcoming new devices, applications and their impact is set for next week in Orlando, when nearly 300 scientists, thinkers and computer engineers from around the world will present and discuss their work and ideas in the 11th International Conference on Ubiquitous Computing. The University of Florida and the University of Central Florida join Microsoft Research, Nokia and Intel among the sponsors for the conference, set for Sept. 30 through Oct. 3 at Disney’s Yacht & Beach Club Resort Conference Center.

“Computing was about information in the past, but we’re moving beyond that,” said Sumi Helal, a UF professor of computer science and engineering and the general chair of the conference. “The next wave will be computers tied to sensors that are a constant, often invisible part of our daily lives.”

Members of the news media are invited to attend the conference, which will include presentations and demonstrations. Reporters and camera crews are asked to pick up press passes and materials at the conference registration desk. (For location, schedule and speaker information visit: www.ubicomp.org/ubicomp2009/.)

Scientists and engineers from UF, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Carnegie Mellon, the Georgia Institute of Technology and more than 130 other institutions from 26 countries are expected to attend. Speakers include Henry Tirri, senior vice president of Nokia and head of the Nokia Research Center and MIT Media Lab Professor Alex “Sandy” Pentland.

Thirty-six planned full-conference presentations include:
• A device that turns the iTouch into an air quality monitor.
• Clothes that coach children on correct posture.
• A swimsuit that informs swimmers of their speed, strokes and time per lane.
• A system that encourages water conservation by tracking how much water is being consumed by each tap, toilet or shower in a home.

At least 20 demonstrations include:
• A way to use hardware in existing computers to “sense” the presence of people.
• A “dining presenter” that adds appeal to dinner table food
• A toy that monitors and encourages daily exercise.

At least 65 workshop presentations include:
• An iPhone app that estimates how users’ activities impact the environment.
• A system that transforms toys into monitors of a childhood development.
• A system that tailors amusement park rides to riders’ experiences in real time.

Helal said computers have moved from mainframe to PC to smart phone and are now at a new phase — where computers act in concert with sensors in many different devices.

Current sensors — GPS, cameras and RFID tags — are already changing traditional practices. GPS-enhanced smart phones, for example, are making paper maps obsolete.

Many more changes are just around the corner. Eric Paulos, an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon’s Human Computer Interaction Institute, designed the iTouch air quality monitor with student Sunyoung Kim. He says the monitor is just one of many applications that could expand smart phones from communication devices into measurement devices able to collect data on everything from jet airplane noise to pollen counts to drinking water quality.

This could prompt personal changes in behavior — one of the participants in a study of the iTouch air quality monitor quit smoking because he could see how much the smoke lowered air quality, Paulos said. But smart phone environmental monitors could also empower “citizen scientists” to gather and share data about the world around them, noting changes to air quality, for example, as traffic or growth patterns changed.

Yelp and other sites now help people find night spots. “In the same way you could influence someone to go to a hit bar,” Paulos said, “you could help influence people to become more aware of environmental issues.”

As next week’s conference will make clear, these applications are bound to have a sweeping impact on society, challenging traditional notions about everything from exercising to healing, raising children to aging, eating to worshipping.

The path of a hurricane is notoriously difficult to predict, but the computerized model will estimate damage to utility systems based on hundreds of factors including the strength of winds, level of storm surge and amount of flooding, said Ted Kury, director of energy studies at UF’s Public Utility Research Center. PURC is developing the model in conjunction with a consortium of Florida electric utilities in an agreement with the Florida Public Service Commission.

With this knowledge in hand, utilities can take steps to soften the blow from the tropical cyclones, Kury said.

“When storms knock down utility poles and burn out transformers, utilities have to pay the costs to replace them, which are then passed on to the customers,” he said. “And when the power goes out, people suffer in other ways. They lose food to spoilage. Even if they have their own generator, it costs money to run it.”

Installing underground wires and using different building materials to strengthen power poles are among the ways to upgrade equipment, and the model also estimates the costs of making various improvements, Kury said.

“There really isn’t anything out there like this that addresses these kinds of issues,” he said.

Sometimes spending money to make the system more secure can actually have the opposite effect, Kury said. For instance, transferring overhead wires underground makes them less vulnerable to wind damage but can make them more susceptible to storm surge, he said.

“That is where having the model is useful,” he said. “Otherwise the utility could spend an awful lot of money — which would have to be recovered from the rate payers — and actually make the equipment less secure in the event of severe weather.”

The model breaks the state into four parts — the Panhandle, the Gulf Coast, southeast Florida and northeast Florida — and uses historical data on how often hurricanes have hit each region to base predictions for future damage, Kury said.

“Hurricanes are more likely to hit the southeast coast and the Panhandle, and we see many more hurricanes that are category one than category four or five,” he said.

After the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, which caused an estimated $28 billion in property damage, the Florida Public Service Commission directed each electric utility to put together a storm preparedness program that addressed 10 initiatives. The utilities asked PURC to coordinate the collaborative research initiative, which would offer cooperative benefits to the state’s different types of utilities, including not only ones that are investor-owned and but those operated by cities and co-operatives Kury said.

The model, which is scheduled to be completed in March, is similar to one used by Federal Emergency Management Agency to assess damages to residential and business property, he said.

In addition to the model, which estimates the costs of making utility systems more resistant to storms, PURC has worked with the utilities to construct a database of equipment damage from storm events, and a central system for tracking this damage, Kury said. Other than tracking overall damage from storms, it is difficult for utilities to collect detailed information themselves because their main job is restoring power, he said.

“When a storm hits, utility workers are not going to stand around looking at poles and wires and taking notes about how everything happened,” he said. “What we’ve done for them here at PURC is try to set up a system that is as seamless as possible for them to track some of this data on a very granular level.”

Ultimately, the state’s utilities, their customers and the Public Utilities Commission will decide which, if any, specific changes to make and how widely to implement them, Kury said.

“We’re just trying to help them to understand the costs and benefits of their decisions,” he said.

“In most cases, receiving a high grade for school performance does not increase a school’s level of voluntary contributions, but getting a low grade results in considerable reduction in its private financial support,” said Larry Kenny, a UF economics professor whose study with David Figlio was published online last week in the Journal of Public Economics. “Indeed, we estimate that a school receiving a grade of ‘F’ will experience a drop in contributions of two-thirds or more.”

The research, which analyzes 2003-04 survey data on contributions to Florida elementary and middle schools, is the first to quantify the effect of school performance grades on voluntary contributions, he said.

“What was particularly surprising in this study was the magnitude of the cutbacks; the numbers are very large,” he said. “These contributions help schools and losing this money lowers the quality of education.”

For schools receiving “F” grades, donations are 67 to 86 percent less than schools earning “C” grades, and “D” schools receive 28 to 45 percent smaller contributions than “C” schools, Kenny said. The average amount of money parents and local businesses donate to schools was approximately $37,000, which amounts to about $57 per student, he said.

The results come at a time when many states including Florida have reduced funding for public schools, he said.

Kenny said that the drop in donations for schools receiving a “D” or an “F” was greater in less affluent schools and in schools with fewer gifted students. Similarly there was a greater increase in donations in response to an “A” or a “B” in schools with more minorities.

One reason disadvantaged parents are more strongly influenced by a school’s grade may be that it is the only indication they have of its quality, Kenny said. Compared with their wealthier counterparts, poorer parents are less involved in school activities such as the PTA or other forms of parent-teacher contact, and so they are less aware of the school’s positive points, he said.

The best informed parents are usually those in affluent communities with fewer minorities and greater numbers of gifted children, Kenny said. Because affluent parents are more knowledgeable about their children’s school, their estimate of its effectiveness is less responsive to the new information provided by the school report card grade, he said.

“Because poor families are less likely to get involved in the schools, the grade is going to have a bigger effect on their perceptions than it would for families that know a lot more about what the school is doing,” he said.

Although the research was done in Florida, Kenny said he would expect the results to apply to schools nationwide. “The behavioral response to a letter grade should be the same anywhere,” he said.

Since 1999 Florida has assigned letter grades to its public schools based on how well they meet certain measures of school performance, such as test scores and in higher grades attendance and suspension rates.

In 2002 the state dramatically changed its grading system to take into account students’ yearly progress on tests, causing some schools to have better grades than they would have had under the previous system and other schools to have worse grades than would have otherwise occurred, he said.

Figlio, who worked with Kenny on the research, is a former UF economics professor who is now a professor of education and social policy at Northwestern University.

“The NRC Faculty Development Grant is very valuable to our department and comes at a time when it can really make a difference in the number of students graduating in this area,” said David Hintenlang, interim chairman of UF’s nuclear and radiological engineering department. “The grant will be used over the next several years to jump-start the careers of two young faculty members who have just started at the University of Florida. These faculty will in turn mentor students into the nuclear engineering profession, which directly benefits the state of Florida where nuclear power generates a significant portion of our electricity and we expect a new nuclear power plant to be built within the next decade.”

UF is one of 70 institutions to receive funding from a total of nearly $20 million designed to boost nuclear education and expand the work force in nuclear and nuclear-related disciplines, the NRC announced.

The faculty development grant can either be used to pay for an existing faculty member who has been in a tenure-track position in the fields of nuclear engineering, health physics or radio chemistry for less than six years or to recruit someone to the faculty from outside the university, said John Gutteridge, an NRC spokesman.

“The grant is very important because there is a work force shortage in the fields of nuclear engineering, health physics, radio chemistry and other related fields,” Gutteridge said. “To attract students, NRC provides scholarships and fellowships, and obviously to educate those students, we need to attract faculty as well.”

The grants provide research money to faculty, who in turn can use part of it toward stipends for the graduate students assisting them on projects, he said.

“There is a shortage of faculty at the nuclear engineering schools around the country, whose numbers have grown in the last seven or eight years, and educated and trained people are needed to work at nuclear power plants and all sectors of the nuclear industry,” Gutteridge said.

At least four more nuclear power plants are likely to be built in the United States in the next decade and more are possible, he said.

“We have over 20 applications for new power plants and while not all of them are going to be built, quite a few will be, and since it appears that all of the 104 existing plants will have their licenses renewed for another 20 years, obviously those plants will need to be staffed with trained personnel,” he said.

The need to replace an aging work force over the next five years will create additional demand for skilled professionals in the field, he said.

Congress provided the NRC funding for a $5 million Educational Curriculum program and an additional $15 million toward NRC’s grant program for scholarships and fellowships, faculty development, trade schools and community colleges.

The NRC awarded 102 grants for scholarships ($2.9 million), fellowships ($5.4 million), faculty development ($4.8 million), trade and community college scholarships ($1.8 million) and nuclear education and curriculum development ($4.7 million). The grants were distributed in 29 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.

The faculty development program is one of five grant programs the NRC offers. Eleven awards were made from the 37 applications received for these grants.

“We had anticipated an increase in consumer confidence in August based on what appeared to be an unjustifiable two-point drop in July following what was already a two-point decline the previous month,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “While the economic environment is by no means bright, the decline in July seemed unsustainable given the lack of any very bad economic news and some encouraging signs in Florida’s housing market and the stock market.”

Three of the five components in the index rose, one fell and one stayed the same. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 43, still only four points above its all-time low of 39. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year jumped 10 points to 73; perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose eight points to 80; and perceptions of personal finances a year from now increased five points to 84. The only component to drop was perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, which fell five points to 72.

“We are not out of this recession yet, particularly here in Florida, but things are not nearly as bad as they were a year ago,” he said.

Home sales have picked up both nationally and in Florida, and falling prices suggest a bottoming out of the housing slump, McCarty said. The latest report from the Florida Association of Realtors shows median prices for existing single-family homes flat from last month and still up for the year, he said.

If foreclosures continue, they could depress home prices, McCarty said. The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that 23 percent of Florida mortgages in the second quarter of 2009 were either in foreclosure or late on payments, he said.

The hardest hit area for foreclosures is along the southwest coast, including Fort Myers, Sarasota and Punta Gorda, all of which are disproportionately dependent on retirees, McCarty said. A slowing of the retiree housing market is a big factor in Florida’s population decline last year for the first time since 1946, which the Bureau reported last week, he said.

One area that has shown no signs of improvement is employment, McCarty said. “Employment remains an enormous problem for Florida,” he said.

The latest information from the Agency for Workforce Innovation shows Florida’s unemployment rate of 10.67 percent in July remained unchanged from the previous month, McCarty said. This number, which does not take into account those who have given up looking for work, is likely to increase through the end of 2009 and into 2010, he said.

“We expect consumer confidence to stay mired in the upper 60s and low 70s as the recovery develops,” McCarty said. “Unfortunately, while Florida housing is showing signs of improving, the overall state economy in the long run will likely lag other parts of the country given the prospects for a turnaround in employment.

“As the country moves into recovery over the next year, real estate, construction spending and tourism — all of which have been major sectors in Florida economy’s over the past two decades — will certainly stabilize, but not grow as they had,” he said. “Florida needs a new approach.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for August was conducted from 425 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

The loss of more than 58,000 residents is connected directly to Florida’s change from an employment-producing to a job-loss state, said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, who led the research.

“The population decline is really a reflection of how severe the national recession has been,” Smith said. “Traditionally, Florida’s growth has been spurred by both a booming economy and a booming housing market, and both have seen substantial losses over the last couple of years.”

During the year leading up to April 2009, the Sunshine State is estimated to have lost 58,294 residents, with its total population falling from 18,807,219 to 18,748,925, Smith said. Compounding the problem is the housing market meltdown, which made it difficult for people who otherwise would want to move to Florida to sell their homes or get a loan to buy a house, he said.

The population loss — the first since 1946 — is spread across Florida because the factors that contributed to the decline exist statewide rather than regionally, Smith said.

“About half of the counties lost population and half gained, and both the losers and the gainers are spread throughout the state,” he said.

Broward County recorded the state’s largest population decline, losing an estimated 13,904 residents in the last year, followed by Lee County, 8,601, and Palm Beach, 8,033, Smith said. Because these are sizeable counties, the declines were not particularly large on a percentage basis compared with other counties, he said.

The biggest percentage losses were found in less populated Union and Suwannee counties in North Florida, Smith said. “In small counties, even a relatively small numerical population change can lead to a fairly substantial percentage change,” he said.

The county with the largest population gain was Alachua, adding 3,844 residents between 2008 and 2009 to give it a total of 256,232 residents, Smith said. The large number of students and university employees adds stability to population trends in Alachua County, he said.

Lake County was close behind, adding 3,614 residents to grow from a population of 288,379 to 291,993, Smith said. “Lake County is home to The Villages, which is a large and rapidly growing retirement community. I think that is part of the explanation why they continued to grow even as other counties were declining,” he said.

Florida has been such a high-growth state that a population decline is much more noticeable than in states that have been declining in the past or growing very slowly, Smith said. “This reflects a very abrupt change from three or four years ago, when Florida was experiencing some of its largest population increases ever,” he said.

Up and down years are not unusual for Florida, Smith said. In the early 1970s, for example, there were several years when the state’s population grew by more than 400,000 a year, but a severe economic recession in the mid-1970s reduced growth to less than 200,000 a year, he said.

“What is different now is that we’re seeing an actual decline in the population and not just a slowdown in the growth rate,” he said.

Although there are signs that the nation is pulling out of the recession and various indicators show that economic growth may be at hand, Smith said he does not believe Florida’s population growth will rebound any time soon. “Growth will be fairly slow for the next year or so but will increase early in the next decade,” he said.

But Smith said he doesn’t foresee long periods of growth as high as those in the past. “Florida has grown by approximately 3 million a decade since 1970. I don’t think growth will be that great in the future but it will still be pretty strong compared with most other states,” he said.