The index components were mixed, with perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago up three points to 44 from a revised May reading of 41 but still near historical lows. All others were lower than or the same as last month.

Perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell six points to 84, and perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell seven points to 65 — it was 51 at this time last year. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items fell nine points to 67. Finally, perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years remained unchanged at 80.

“In the previous two releases we had suggested the possibility of a small decline in confidence in June, which seems to have been the case,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “This is most likely a combination of the fallout from the Florida state budget, which includes several new and increased fees, as well as the bankruptcy of GM.”

Another factor affecting the decline is a sharp increase in Florida’s unemployment rate. A previous unemployment release from the Agency for Workforce Innovation showed a slight decline, but that has since been erased by an increase into double-digit unemployment, he added. Florida’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2009 was 10.2 percent, according to the agency.

“Most economists believe unemployment will continue to increase as the economy moves into recovery,” McCarty said.

The economic landscape in Florida remains mixed. On the negative side is high unemployment and continued foreclosures, although the rate of foreclosures in Florida may already have peaked, McCarty said. Gas prices have increased dramatically over the past month, although there are signs that may be reversing.

On the positive side, the Florida Association of Realtors report for May once again showed signs that the median price of existing homes is stabilizing. Since January, the median price has fluctuated in a narrow range and is now up for the year at $144,400. It is increasingly likely that Florida has taken most of its knocks to housing value, even as other states continue to decline, McCarty said.

“Moving forward, we do not expect Florida consumer confidence to decline much more over the next couple of months, barring some unforeseen change here in Florida or nationally,” he said. “There is at least a temporary reaction of the stock market to some recent news, including Iran and dramatic increases in mortgage and credit card delinquencies. So far, this volatility is relatively small and not indicative of a reversal in the economic recovery.”

However, McCarty cautions that everyone should expect the recovery to be long and uneven for some sectors of the economy.

“With the demise of longstanding financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers and manufacturing companies like Chrysler and GM, it is no longer business as usual,” he said. “The U.S. is clearly going to share more of the global economic pie than it has in the past.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for June was conducted from 430 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Coffee and tea drinkers, take note — a University of Florida study says a beverage made from a native holly tree might be just the thing to give you a caffeinated kick-start, plus a dose of antioxidants.

Yaupon (YO-ponn) holly is the only U.S. plant that produces substantial amounts of caffeine, said Jack Putz, a botany professor affiliated with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. A popular ornamental species, yaupon grows wild throughout the Southeast and can be grown in most coastal states.

Centuries ago, American Indians and Spanish settlers steeped yaupon leaves and twigs in hot water to make a stimulating beverage, but that use of the plant is virtually unknown today.

The resulting brew is dark brown and tastes much like green tea. If it makes a comeback, yaupon may spawn a cottage beverage industry, Putz said. And the antioxidants might be useful in nutritional supplements.

“A few years ago we were contacted from a pharmaceutical company in Texas,” he said. “At first, we thought their interest was in caffeine but they said that with all the decaffeinated beverages around, caffeine is cheap. What they were interested in was the antioxidants.”

Nitrogen fertilizer can boost yaupon production and caffeine content, according to a paper Putz co-wrote, published in this month’s issue of the journal Economic Botany. Nitrogen had little effect on antioxidant content.

The researchers focused on a popular ornamental yaupon variety called Nana, said Matt Palumbo, a botany master’s graduate and co-author of the paper. After receiving nitrogen fertilizer, Nana plants yielded 35 percent more leaves; caffeine concentration in the leaves shot up 265 percent.

Nana had about half the antioxidant content of green tea, he said.

“I have found genotypes with antioxidant concentrations at least as high as green tea,” Palumbo said.

Similarly, Nana’s caffeine content was low compared with concentrations reported in previous studies, he said.

Dry, unprocessed yaupon leaves contain between .65 percent and .85 percent caffeine by weight. Coffee beans are about 1.1 percent caffeine by weight and tea leaves about 3.5 percent caffeine.

More research is needed to learn which yaupon varieties have the greatest caffeine and antioxidant content, Palumbo said. Afterward, new cultivars can be developed.

One point seems clear — if U.S. residents begin drinking yaupon tea it could reduce demand for coffee, which may ease ecological pressure on coffee-farming regions of South America, Africa and Southeast Asia, he said.

It’s uncertain whether large-scale yaupon farming would be economically feasible in the U.S., but the antioxidants appear to have commercial potential, he said. And home gardeners might enjoy growing and using yaupon.

One caveat — before making yaupon tea it’s critical to obtain the correct plant, Putz says. There are numerous U.S. holly species, many of them not safe for consumption.

The taste of yaupon tea will be the make-or-break factor for potential users, says Dan Austin, an ethnobotanist based at the Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum in Tucson.

If they don’t like the flavor — something Austin says is quite possible — then they’re unlikely to drink the beverage regardless of the health benefits.

Still, he says, “if the proper spin is put on it, the potential is there.”

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida’s consumer confidence dropped one point in May to 71, reflecting pessimism about personal finances despite an improved national economic outlook, the latest University of Florida survey finds.

The index component measuring perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell four points to 40, one point above its all-time low record of 39 in December. In contrast, expectations of personal finances a year from now rose five points to 90, the highest level since October 2007.

“The makeup of the consumer confidence index in May reflects optimism about the economy in the short run, but the decline in perceptions of current personal finances to near record lows is noteworthy,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Floridians are saying they don’t have the money now to buy, but they expect to within a year.”

Perhaps consumers also are wondering what happens when the government’s infusion of stimulus money runs out, McCarty said. “While they expect the U.S. economy to improve over the next year, they are beginning to question its long-term viability,” he said.

Of the remaining index components, perceptions of the U.S. economy over the next year rose four points to 73, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell four points to 78. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items fell six points to 72.

The economic environment for consumers is mixed. On the plus side, housing prices in Florida appear to be stabilizing in some markets, although foreclosures are still high, McCarty said. In many areas, housing prices have fallen to a level that could not sustain a much larger drop, he said.

In other positive news, the unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percent in April to 9.6 percent, McCarty said. Rising unemployment has been a big concern for policymakers in anticipating a recovery, he said.

However, the stock market continues to show volatility, although it is appearing to have a sustained rally, he said.

Also of concern is that retail sales have been down for the past two months, reflecting pessimism about the economy, even though April’s decline was small, McCarty said. Also, gasoline prices have risen 25 cents in the past two weeks, as is typically the case when summer travel approaches, he said.

“Moving forward, we still anticipate at least a short-term decline in confidence over the next couple of months as the impact of the state budget is felt and the effects of a GM (General Motors) bankruptcy move through the system,” McCarty said.

However, on balance, the economic news, while not necessarily good, is not shockingly bad, either, he said.

“Like the end of hurricane season, Floridians are grateful for a day, week or month without facing economic destruction,” he said. “At this point, they just want to get about the business of cleaning up the mess.”

The overall index for April was revised from a preliminary figure of 71, which was reported earlier, to 72 after all the survey data had been collected at the end of the month.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for May was conducted from 408 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The first signs of confidence in Florida real estate are starting to appear with hopes that government stimulus plans will unfreeze markets and reinvigorate business, the latest University of Florida survey finds.

“People believe in some instances that a lot of what the government is doing to try to inject capital into the system may actually have some effect,” said Timothy Becker, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, which conducts the quarterly survey. “Positive responses to several questions lead us to believe there is light at the end of the tunnel.”

Perhaps most significant is that respondents’ perception of their own business outlook has improved after three years of steady decline, Becker said.

“If real estate investors think there are opportunities out there for their firms to make money, that means there are deals that will be getting done and when deals start getting done, various participants in the transactions make money and it’s almost like a snowball effect,” he said.

Another positive finding was the perception of the availability of capital, which jumped to its highest level in the survey’s history, Becker said. Respondents expect some money that has sat in treasury funds to start trickling back into real estate as investors gain confidence with the steps banks are taking to rid their balance sheets of bad assets, he said.

That capital is not yet actually available is still a concern, though, Becker said. If loans come due for shopping centers, for example, and there is no capital in the marketplace to refinance these loans, that will slow any recovery, he said.

The latest statewide survey of Florida real estate trends, which was completed in March, is 14th in a series and based on 335 responses from leaders and professional advisers in the industry. It follows the December survey, which showed that confidence in real estate markets had sunk to their lowest levels since the survey began in July 2006.

Retail is worse off than any other real estate sector right now simply because consumers are buying less, Becker said. “With people uncomfortable about whether they’re going to have a job, they obviously are spending less money than they did in the past,” he said.

Job losses mean the office rental market is not doing well either as owners try to fill newly vacated space, he said.

Apartment occupancy also is falling, with confidence declining even more in the most recent survey, Becker said. “In talking to people, it appears as their houses are foreclosing, they’re not necessarily going into rental apartments, they’ve moving in with family or friends in the short term,” he said.

Single-family housing prices are expected to continue to drop, especially in areas with a glut of foreclosures, Becker said. Because banks want to get these properties off their books as they hit the market, housing prices are likely to fall as these properties are sold, he said.

“In the short term, I think we will have more downward pressure on prices, particularly in places where foreclosures have been pretty high,” he said. The most notably hard hit area in the state is Lee County in southwest Florida, with places such as Miami and even Jacksonville hurting to some extent, he said.

The combination of low prices and interest rates has boosted the number of houses being sold, particularly in some areas, he said.

New construction is competing unusually well against foreclosed homes, Becker said. With lower interest rates and construction costs, builders are starting to make new homes more affordable, creating an attractive option for would-be buyers, he said.

“With the number of distressed houses on the market, you would think that buyers would typically lean toward those because they would be cheaper,” he said. “But in many cases foreclosed homes have been sitting on the market for long periods of time not being maintained and people aren’t willing to invest the money it takes to fix them back up.”

Builders are building smaller homes with cheaper construction costs because that is what people want, Becker said.

“I think in general people are downsizing everything they do,” he said. “They don’t need the biggest house they did before, they don’t need the biggest car they did before and they aren’t buying as much as they did before.”

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Nice guys may finish last, but it’s the smart ones that come in first with the lookers close behind, according to a University of Florida study that finds people with intelligence earn more in their lifetime than those who are attractive or self-confident.

“While beauty matters to career success, brains matter most,” said Timothy Judge, a UF management professor whose research is published in the May issue of the Journal of Applied Psychology. “If you were somehow able to choose from being smart, good-looking or self-confident, our study shows that while you’d want all three qualities, brains are the most important to economic success.”

Intelligence is rewarded early in life with positive strokes from teachers, which boosts self-confidence and encourages future academic success, he said.

“Smart people do better in their careers because they are more likely to be educated and are more confident in their abilities,” Judge said. “And it’s also possible that smart people make better career choices, learn more on the job, negotiate for pay more effectively and adapt better to changes in the workplace.”

The results emphasize the need for employers to be fair in their hiring and not unduly influenced by a job candidate’s appearance, he said.

Judge, along with UF graduate students Charlice Hurst and Lauren Simon, studied how intelligence, beauty and self-confidence affect income and financial strain. Results came from surveys of 191 men and women between the ages of 25 and 75 who participated in the National Midlife Development in the United States study.

Measures of intelligence were derived from a series of established tests and mental exercises, while self-confidence was determined from a 15-item questionnaire examining attitudes about one’s ability to cope with various life situations. Researchers judged attractiveness by rating personal photographs of the participants on a scale of one to seven.

By knowing men’s and women’s scores in the areas of intelligence, beauty and self-confidence, the researchers were able to accurately classify them into one of 35 income categories more than half the time, Judge said. After brains, self-confidence ranked second in importance, followed by beauty, he said.

Although beauty ranked last, its importance to earnings is still troubling, Judge said. With few exceptions, such as modeling, attractiveness is not particularly relevant to job performance and is never seen in job descriptions, he said, yet it still matters to what people earn.

“Countless parents have assured their children that it is the inside that counts, with the ‘inside’ presumably referring to one’s personality and intelligence,” he said. “While the ‘inside’ clearly counts when it comes to income, attractiveness makes a difference, too.”

Part of the reason for attractive people’s success is their educational prospects are influenced by their looks, Judge’s study found. From an early age, studies show that good-looking students receive more teacher instruction and attention, while being punished less frequently, making them more likely to finish high school and attend college, he said.

In one study, for instance, school psychologists were less likely to refer attractive, poorly achieving third-grade students to remedial classes than their homelier classmates, he said.

“Employers who interview people for jobs need to make sure they are not favoring the attractive — and there is evidence that they do — while denying its importance,” he said. “Intelligence is a legitimate factor to consider in almost all jobs because research shows that intelligence predicts job performance in nearly all types of work, even fairly simple, entry-level jobs. While the same can be said for self-confidence, looks are another matter.”

“Dr. Judge’s research shows that, although the cover of the book matters, the content matters more. We ugly people can all breathe a sigh of relief,” said Jose Cortina, a psychology professor at George Mason University. “It is easy to be cynical in face of research showing that physical attractiveness affects important outcomes for which it should be irrelevant.”

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer confidence among Floridians surged six points to 71 in April amid indicators of flattening housing prices statewide and news that the economy has not worsened, a new University of Florida survey finds.

“The size of the increase comes as somewhat of a surprise,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “We had expected confidence among Florida’s consumers to move up and down in a fairly narrow window from the low to the upper 60s.”

While there are certainly some signs that the economy may be improving, such as housing prices possibly hitting their lowest point, many negative conditions still exist, such as continuing job losses, McCarty said. Florida’s unemployment rate of 9.7 percent is the highest since 1976, he said.

“However, in balance, consumers seem to have absorbed most of the bad news and are at least not seeing things getting much worse,” he said. “Perhaps we really have seen the bottom in terms of Florida consumer confidence, which was back in June of last year.”

In that month, consumer confidence sunk to 59, its lowest level in the index’s 25-year history.

All five of the components in April rose. The biggest jump was in perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, such as cars and appliances, which jumped 15 points to 77. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year climbed nine points to 69, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose three points to 82. Perceptions of personal finances a year from now increased five points to 85, while perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose two points to 44.

Despite these positive signs, there is still enormous uncertainty surrounding the economic recovery, McCarty said.

The massive interventions by the federal government, the Federal Reserve and governments around the world have had obvious effects, although there is debate whether the effects are all positive, McCarty said. At the same time, stock markets around the world have experienced a recent rally that some economic pundits characterize as the beginnings of a recovery but could turn around quickly with bad news, he said.

If housing prices nationally begin to stabilize, this would help establish the value of some of the toxic assets held by banks and at least indicate how deeply the recession has hurt the global economy, he said.

“Consumers seem to characterize the economy by those events both in their personal lives and in the news that are changing the most, whether those be good or bad,” he said.

There has not been much news recently about very large bailouts, nor have there been many notable bankruptcies of very large companies, although there is a strong possibility that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler may end up having to declare bankruptcy, McCarty said. Were that to happen, it would likely cause at least a temporary drop in consumer confidence, even here in Florida, he said.

Barring something of that magnitude, consumer confidence may continue to improve as various sectors of the economy begin to recover, he said.

“For Floridians specifically the next big news will probably be the Florida state budget and the effects it will have on taxpayers, who stand to pay more in various fees, and those who depend on state revenue for their employment,” he said. “The effects of this may not be known well into May.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for April was conducted from 406 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

According to the annual Florida Land Value Survey, conducted by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, rural land and land outside of metropolitan areas — eagerly sought by developers in recent years — is now commonly being offered for sale at a fraction of its cost.

“In some cases, it’s almost like a fire sale,” said Rodney Clouser, the UF professor of food and resource economics who led the survey. Some respondents reported large blocks of land being offered at 20 to 30 percent of their purchase price.

A population boom between 2002 and 2006 contributed to a dramatic rise in land prices throughout Florida. But now, the state’s annual population increase is expected to be only 10 percent of the boom years’ growth, according to UF population projections.

The survey, which does not cover urban land values, showed that land outside of cities primed for development, dubbed transition land, decreased by as much as 55 percent in the northern half of the state.

Transition land within five miles of urban centers in the southern half of the state lost nearly 40 percent of its value.

However, in the one exception to the otherwise gloomy economic picture, transition land more than five miles away from urban centers in the southern half of the state increased by 5 percent. Most likely, this is because its low price and relative location to large cities was seen as the best deal by those still looking to buy real estate, Clouser said.

Nevertheless, the 5 percent increase is significantly smaller than the nearly 17 percent increase for the same area last year.

Lagging development hasn’t just affected areas destined for shopping malls and homes. It has also contributed to drops as large as 26 percent in farmland values.

Although such land is typically evaluated primarily by the profitability of the crop produced, urban expansion was so rapid in recent boom years that many began to evaluate the land based on what it would bring if used for housing or other development purposes, Clouser said.

Land prices are expected to continue their drop through 2009 — although not as dramatically as in 2008. Survey responses from individuals involved in the Florida real estate market predict an overall drop between 5 and 17 percent.

Even after the national economic picture brightens, Clouser said, a surplus of homes and other existing development would need to be sold before demand would once again drive land prices up.

The report can be viewed at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/FE798.

The conference, scheduled for April 14 at the Hilton University of Florida Conference Center, will feature 16 start-up companies created to market and manufacture research innovations.

Through a series of overviews and information sessions, investors and entrepreneurs will be introduced to each company’s mission and the innovation behind it. Those interested will have a chance to be involved in the future of UF’s hottest medical and technological research.

The conference starts after a buffet lunch with opening remarks by UF President Bernie Machen and an overview of UF research and commercialization milestones by Win Phillips, UF’s vice president for research. The afternoon continues with a keynote panel discussion with prominent venture capitalists, followed by an overview of technology opportunities from David Day, director of the Office of Technology Licensing at UF, and Jane Muir, associate director of OTL. Breakout sessions with the companies will go from 3 to 5 p.m.

Last year, OTL provided 75 licenses on more than 100 new technologies, Muir said.

“The university is a huge research engine,” Muir said. “Our goal is to get that research out of the laboratory and into the marketplace.”

The showcase starts at 11:30 a.m. with registration and continues until 5 p.m. An inventors’ reception will be held from 5 to 7 p.m.

For more information, visit:
http://conferences.dce.ufl.edu/innovationshowcase/.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer confidence among Floridians rose three points to 65 in March amid some good economic news, but the pattern is one of fluctuation rather than real economic recovery, says a University of Florida researcher.

“Florida consumers remain relatively pessimistic despite the three-point rise in confidence,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Until there is a clear message that things are changing for the better, we expect consumer confidence to continue to move up and down as conflicting economic news trickles in.”

Three of the five components of the index rose, while one declined and one remained unchanged. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose 12 points to 79, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose 10 points to 59. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose one point to 42, while perceptions of personal finances a year from now remained unchanged at 79. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items fell eight points to 64.

Since July 2008, consumer confidence has vacillated within an eight-point range, McCarty said.

“Much like the stock market, consumer confidence seems to lack a clear direction as positive economic news is typically countered by negative news,” he said. “For example, housing sales and prices in some areas of Florida have increased, but unemployment is at levels not seen for 30 years. The stimulus package passed, but unpopular bonuses at AIG and debate in the Florida Legislature about accepting parts of the stimulus package counter that positive effect.”

The employment situation in Florida is expected to worsen at least through the end of 2009 and possibly into 2010, McCarty said.

“Like the rest of the country, Florida consumers have pulled back dramatically on spending in the face of declining home prices and uncertainty about job security,” he said. “On the positive side, housing price declines in some areas of Florida seem to have slowed, and new federal tax rebates for first-time buyers along with low interest rates may make for a much better home buying season given pent-up demand.”

McCarty said he believes these events will eventually improve circumstances for some businesses in Florida, although the construction industry may take a long time to recover.

“Increased home sales and a clear change in the stock market would both send messages to Floridians that the economic recovery is on its way,” he said. “Until then, consumers are likely to remain pessimistic and cautious about spending.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for March was conducted from 470 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The economic recession has cast a shadow over growth in the Sunshine State, according to the latest population projections from the University of Florida, which see Florida’s population increases plunging to their lowest level in 60 years and some counties actually shrinking.

With South Florida counties particularly hard hit, the state is expected to add an average of only 37,000 residents each year between 2008 and 2010, a drop of more than 90 percent from the annual average increase during the housing boom years of 2002 to 2006, said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research who led the research. The new report shows county population projections from 2008 to 2035.

“The collapse of the housing market and the lingering effects of what has been the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression have put a real crimp on migration and are likely to keep Florida’s population growth at very low levels for the next few years,” Smith said.

Not since the mid-1940s, when large numbers of military personnel who temporarily moved to Florida during World War II returned to their home states, has the state experienced such small population increases, Smith said. After growing by 60,000 to 80,000 per year in the late 1930s, Florida’s population swelled by 100,000 to 300,000 per year in the early 1940s, declined for two years immediately following the war and then entered a prolonged period of steady growth, he said.

The housing bust and resulting drop in home values, along with stock market declines affecting savings and retirement accounts, have made it difficult for residents nationwide to sell their homes and move to Florida, Smith said. In addition, the recession has created a loss of jobs in Florida, and employment is one of the main reasons people move to the state, he said.

While projections call for most counties to grow slowly, Smith said, 14 counties are expected to lose population during the next two years: Broward, Calhoun, Collier, Gulf, Lee, Martin, Monroe, Okaloosa, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Seminole and Volusia.

Since 2000 the only Florida county to lose population was Monroe, Smith said. “That’s an unusual case in that most of its land is in the Everglades, which is not developable, and most of the population is in the Keys, where there is little space to expand and the cost of living is relatively high,” he said.

Counties in South Florida are hardest hit because they expanded most during the housing boom as huge numbers of workers moved into the state to take jobs in real estate and construction and other businesses, Smith said. When the economy declined, employees left and county populations fell, he said.

“Many of the counties in North Florida had not experienced the boom to the same degree as the counties in South Florida and consequently did not experience the bust to the same degree,” he said.

As economic growth slowed and the housing market cooled, annual population growth declined from an average of 395,000 between 2000 and 2006 to 331,000 between 2006 and 2007 and 127,000 in 2007 and 2008, he said.

The effects are being felt everywhere from declining revenues from sales taxes and real estate transactions for state and local budgets to businesses experiencing a downturn from less demand for their goods and services, he said.

“As the national economy recovers and as the excess supply of housing in Florida is absorbed, we’re expecting growth to pick up again, probably within the next year or so, and then to increase to more normal levels during the next decade,” Smith said.

The only events that might stall population growth would be a prolonged economic slowdown similar to the Great Depression, which Smith believes is unlikely, or factors making the state a less desirable place to live, such as being hit by an unusually large number of hurricanes.

“I think heavy hurricane damage would have a psychological impact on people in terms of their thinking about whether to move to Florida, but perhaps more importantly it would have a strong economic effect by leading to a substantial increase in property insurance rates,” he said.

In today’s tight economy, the lengths apparel stores go to lure customers with deep discounts and colorful interior designs are likely to fall short if shoppers don’t like how they look in the mirror, said Anne Baumstarck, who did the research for her master’s degree in interior design at UF.

“The dressing room represents the final moment when the consumer decides whether or not to make a clothing purchase,” she said. “It is where the sale is made.”

Yet retailers often overlook the importance of how the room is illuminated, thinking all shoppers need is an overhead light to be able to see when trying on merchandise, Baumstarck said. But shoppers may have other needs, and lighting direction appears to affect how people see themselves, she said.

“After all sorts of money is invested in a store’s atmospherics, it gives shoppers a letdown to have poorly planned dressing rooms,” she said. “Retailers diminish the feeling they’ve worked so hard to create in the main store.”

While other studies have examined lighting on the sales floor, none have looked at the effects it has on shoppers in dressing rooms, Baumstarck said.

In Baumstarck’s study, 60 female shoppers ages 18 to 35 who tried on clothes in the dressing rooms at Wolfgang, a Gainesville clothing boutique, showed a clear preference for frontal lights — those installed along the sides of the mirror — to overhead lights, which were mounted on the ceiling.

“Women complained that overhead lighting created shadows on their face, making them look unattractive,” she said.

To avoid these unflattering shadows, shoppers had to step back from the mirror and move around, Baumstarck said. “They were constantly engaged in trying to negotiate the best spot to stand and ended up dancing around the dressing room,” she said.

When customers notice the negative aspects of their surroundings, it distracts them from paying attention to the merchandise, Baumstarck said. “You never want a consumer to be thinking ‘I hate this lighting’ instead of ‘I like this dress,’” she said.

Overhead lighting also makes a room seem smaller — even cramped — creating a need to escape, Baumstarck said. With frontal lighting, dressing rooms appear roomier, and shoppers said they were willing to stay longer and even try on more clothes, she said.

Women most impressed with frontal lighting were those who placed a high priority on personal appearance and how they looked in clothes; by comparison, more utilitarian shoppers cared only about finding a particular article of apparel that fit, the study found.

Results showed that this “self-oriented” shopper would sometimes comment about frontal lighting giving their skin a healthy glow, making their cellulite less visible or being so soft and flattering that it made it appear they were in a bar or restaurant in the evening, she said.

Previous research shows consumers choose a store with a particular image, such as one that is healthy and sporty or sexy and trendy because they want to be seen as having those attributes, Baumstarck said.

Lighting was so important that it captured a majority of the comments — 51 percent — that women made in the study, Baumstarck said. Of the 36 comments made about overhead lighting, 25 were negative, representing 69 percent of the total, and 11 were positive, making up 31 percent. In contrast, frontal lighting generated 34 comments, of which 20 were positive — 59 percent — and 14 were negative or 41 percent.

Lighting in stores varies, with overhead lights common in lower-priced bargain stores, Baumstarck said. Some retailers don’t even designate lighting for dressing rooms; the same overhead light fixtures serve both dressing rooms and the main sales floor, she said.

“It’s not all about the clothes,” she said. “What woman doesn’t go into a dressing room and engage in a dialogue with herself about how attractive she is? You don’t want to give her any opportunity to feel badly about herself.”

Baumstarck’s study has great implications for retailers and consumers, especially with the economic downturn, said Paulette Hebert, an Oklahoma State University design professor and lighting expert. “One important variable, such as dressing room illumination, may mean the difference in a store remaining viable in today’s economy,” she said.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer confidence among Floridians fell three points to 63 in February as hopes for a quick fix to the nation’s economic crisis faded, says a University of Florida researcher.

“As expected, consumer confidence declined in February as the novelty of a new administration met with the sustained reality of a faltering economy,” said Chris McCarty, director of the UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Consumers are reporting severe financial strain and are bracing for the long recession that most economists have predicted.”

February’s index of 63 is four points above the all-time low of 59. All five of the components that make up the index dropped. Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell six points to 69, while expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell four points to 51. Expectations of personal finances a year from now fell three points to 80, while perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell one point to 42. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items fell one point to 73.

“We saw a temporary increase to confidence in December and January that seems to have been related to optimism about the effectiveness of federal intervention into the economy, and perhaps more importantly, the change to a new administration,” McCarty said. “It is now clear that neither of these will result in a quick fix to the economy.”

Unlike previous government interventions, though, the recently passed stimulus package offers a lot to everyday consumers, he said.

Much of the money is earmarked for health insurance and extended unemployment benefits for those who were laid off, McCarty said. There are tax cuts, although they will be realized over time rather than in a single stimulus check as the one sent out in the spring of 2008, he said.

The Obama administration has proposed a new homeowner affordability and stability plan, which includes relief for troubled homeowners, he said.

“This plan may end up being one of the big bonuses for Florida where housing sales have been extremely weak,” he said. “A proposed $8,000 tax rebate for first-time home buyers may stimulate those who are on the fence about committing to buying a house.”

With Florida median home prices now at 2004 levels, the extra rebate makes home purchases attractive for those who qualify, McCarty said. Increased sales will help stabilize home prices and, perhaps more important, establish the value of problematic mortgage-related assets being held by banks, he said.

In addition to the recently passed $787 billion stimulus package, the federal government has invested trillions to support ailing banks in an effort to bolster domestic and international financial systems, McCarty said.

“As job losses in Florida and elsewhere around the country continue to rise, consumers do not see how those investments benefit them,” he said.

Many financial institutions have survived because of government intervention, but they are cautious about lending, given the write-downs they took on defaulted mortgage loans, McCarty said. Consumers themselves are cautious about taking out loans in an environment where job security is questionable, he said.

The combination of scarce credit and cautious consumers resulted in drop in retail sales from July to December, although January sales were up, McCarty said. Consumers are waiting for a clear signal that things are improving, he said.

“Unfortunately, as time moves on, the problems with the economy will become less associated with housing and evolve into something more difficult to resolve,” McCarty said. “There is no doubt that we will be working through this recession through this year and into 2010.”

McCarty predicts that consumer confidence will remain below 70 through 2009 as the underlying problems that led to the recession are worked out.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for February was conducted from 413 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer confidence among Floridians inched up one point to 68 in January despite worse than expected holiday retail sales and the state being tied for 10th place in the percentage of unemployed workers, a new University of Florida study finds.

The makeup of the results was quite different from last month, with perhaps the biggest change in the component measuring perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago. It broke a four-month trend downward to rise five points from last month’s record low of 39.

In other changes, perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell three points to 84; perceptions of national economic conditions over the next year fell four points to 58; perceptions of national economic conditions over the next five years fell one point to 77; and perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items rose five points to 76.

“Overall, Floridians are more optimistic this month than last month, although the overall numbers are still historically low,” said Chris McCarty, director of the UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Moving forward there is no reason to believe that the economy will improve dramatically for the next two quarters. This recession is more severe than most, and there are some aspects that are different than others.”

Employment nationally has fallen dramatically, and Florida’s high number in the percentage of jobless is the result of a combination of factors, McCarty said. Construction, which two years ago represented one of the largest percentages of employment in the Sunshine State, has ground to a near halt, and there have been declines in service sector jobs related to the real estate crisis as well as the tourist industry — another casualty of a pullback in consumer discretionary spending, he said.

“Retail sales for the holiday season ultimately proved to be even lower than many forecasts, and sales will continue to be weak as consumers cut back in reaction to the recession,” McCarty said.

Most economists forecast higher unemployment through 2009 and some even into 2010, although most of these predictions do not take into account any intervention by the federal government, such as the $825 billion stimulus package making its way through Congress, he said.

Florida’s 8.1 percent unemployment in December — the latest month for which statistics are available — is higher than the national rate of 7.2 percent, McCarty said.

McCarty said he was not surprised that the component measuring perceptions of personal finances compared with a year ago rose this month, given that it was so low before. But Floridians remain very pessimistic.

“At some point things cannot get much worse, or at least we hope they won’t,” he said. “So answers to this question have to turn the corner at some time.”

Similarly, the optimism last month about national economic conditions over the next year, which jumped seven points, and over the next five years, which rose five points, may have been out of line with actual events and more about expectations relating to the transition to a new presidential administration, he said.

The index component measuring perceptions about whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items has risen for the fourth month and reflects the continued deep discounting from retailers across the board, McCarty said. The problem is, and will continue to be, access to credit that is often necessary for big-ticket purchases, he said.

“Although loans are available to many consumers, first-time buyers of items from cars to homes often find it difficult to get financing,” he said.

“Eventually this recession will turn around, and pent up consumer demand and reorganized businesses will lead to economic growth,” he said. “Unfortunately, that will probably not begin to occur until the fourth quarter of 2009 or the first quarter of 2010 when bank balance sheets have fully processed the extent of the bad loans.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for January was conducted from 417 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

Often viewed as fierce opponents in controversies pitting jobs against wildlife — such as the dispute over logging and spotted owls — unions and environmental groups are banding together to stop groundwater contamination in the Silicon Valley, toxic chemical spills in New Jersey, air pollution from the nation’s ports and other hazards that affect communities and workplaces alike, said Brian Mayer, a UF sociology professor.

“Health issues are increasingly becoming the common ground on which blue-green coalitions are developing across the United States,” he said. “Recognizing that the same toxins that cause workplace hazards escape into surrounding communities has brought workers and environmentalists together to look out for everyone’s protection.”

In his new book “Blue-Green Coalitions: Fighting for Safe Workplaces and Healthy Communities,” published this month by Cornell University Press, Mayer debunks popular images of these groups. “Stereotypes of blue-collar workers as interested only in putting food on the table and being willing to do anything to trade off the environment are no truer than perceptions of an environmentalist as someone middle class or upper class who is preoccupied with outdoor leisure opportunities,” he said.

“Mayer’s book fills a huge gap in our knowledge of how unions and environmentalists have worked together and why,” said J. Timmons Roberts, a sociology professor at the College of William and Mary and co-author of the book “A Climate of Injustice; Global Inequality, North-South Politics and Climate Policy.” He added that Mayer “offers creative ideas about how this potentially powerful coalition might work together in the future.”

An increase in environmental risks has encouraged unions and environmentalists to unite, Mayer said. In past economic booms, Americans were excited about new factories, while today, with the transfer of heavy industry overseas, larger numbers of workers have service jobs, which can put them in close proximity to a variety of chemicals, he said.

The Service Employees International Union, which represents vast numbers of employees in the service and hospitality industry, is one of the few unions in the United States whose membership is expanding, Mayer said.

“If you think about hotel workers, custodial workers and other employees who come into direct contact with a lot of cleaning chemicals, their jobs can be dangerous,” he said. “More and more of these workers are concerned with health.”

The decline of organized labor to about 12 percent of the nation’s work force from 36 percent in 1945 also has encouraged unions to reach out to nontraditional allies by collaborating with environmentalists, he said.

One example of such an affiliation is the formation of Alliance for a Healthy Tomorrow in Boston in 2001, a grassroots coalition that worked to pass a Massachusetts law requiring that proponents of a product prove its safety before it goes on the market instead of forcing the public to make a case later that something is hazardous, Mayer said. Today the organization works with scientists, public health experts and community activists across the state in promoting the substitution of safer alternatives for hazardous substances, he said.

Some blue-green coalitions began as early as the 1980s, as with the New Jersey Work Environmental Council helping to put into place the nation’s first right-to-know legislation, giving New Jersey workers and residents access to information about the use and storage of toxic substances, Mayer said. In California, the Silicon Valley Toxics Coalition fought for similar right-to-know legislation, as well as addressed health concerns about electronics, expanding into a global presence today as high-tech industries have moved overseas, he said.

One of the most recent initiatives has occurred with the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which use the revenue from a small tax on shipping containers entering the ports to update and retrofit trucks to make them cleaner and more efficient, Mayer said. Ships, trains and diesel trucks that congregate in and around ports pollute city air and have been blamed for about half of the emissions in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, he said.

Name the segment of real estate — retail, offices, housing, condos and the consumer’s frame of mind — and the survey finds that with few exceptions belief in the market has sagged to lows seldom seen in the state, said Wayne Archer, executive director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.

“The big news is that the recession and the latest shocks in the financial markets and automobile industry have finally taken their toll,” he said. “People not only foresee tough times in the short-term, but they’re also revising downward their longer-term future outlook.”

The most recent quarterly survey of Florida real estate trends completed in December suggests the investment outlook for various types of properties has sunk to depths not seen for three decades, Archer said.

“We’ve come a long ways down in three years to the point where we’re comparing the situation now to the recession of 1974,” he said. “What started with a mortgage crisis has spread to a general financial crisis and is now spreading to employment.”

The downturn in job rates has hurt retail more than any other real estate sector over the last quarter, Archer said. Except for free-standing big box stores, the investment outlook and rental occupancy rates are bleak for all forms of retail, he said.

Growing fears on the part of consumers is contributing to the economic standstill, Archer believes. “You can’t pick up the newspaper without seeing another story about layoffs and I think that’s getting to consumers,” he said. “They’re prudently pulling in their financial resources, and as a result, things are dropping off very quickly on the retail front.”

A marked decline also is occurring with offices and is beginning to compete with retail in its severity, Archer said. As consumers buy less, one ripple effect is that firms are holding of on plans for growth and in some cases reducing staff to prepare for rough months ahead, he said.

Falling Florida housing prices are expected to continue their decline, although surprisingly little change occurred in the sales volume of new homes, which is the component of the housing market the survey measures, Archer said.

“I think there was some hope that housing prices had bottomed out three months ago, but it’s very clear now that we’re taking a lot more damage than anybody expected,” he said.

Expectations for condos can’t get much worse because things are already bad, Archer said. The condo market has always been volatile and is usually the first to suffer, sort of like the proverbial canary in a coal mine, he said.

“The financial problems are everywhere, but the state of the housing market and the employment picture varies significantly, with Gainesville perhaps the best off of the state’s metropolitan areas,” Archer said. “Generally, we see remarkably few foreclosures across North Florida compared to central and particularly South Florida.”

Lee County continues to be the “king” of foreclosures, with the Cape Coral-Fort Myers region experiencing the highest foreclosure rate among the nation’s metropolitan areas, and Osceola and St. Lucie counties suffering as well, he said.

One positive sign is the recent dramatic increase in refinancing with the availability of 5 percent mortgage rates in mid-December, Archer said. If additional programs are put into place that allow 4.5 percent Federal Housing Administration mortgages for people who have difficulty making payments, it will do even more to stabilize the housing industry, he said.

“In many cases, people haven’t been able to purchase because the financial system is paralyzed, and is either unwilling or unable to help them with transactions,” he said. “With no offers coming in, people who want to sell houses can’t sell them, and the prices go down.”

Apartment occupancy, which was up the previous quarter, reversed direction slightly in the most recent survey but is still more stable than other sectors of the real estate industry, Archer said. It could be that consumers are trying to save money by taking in roommates, creating less demand for apartment units, he said. “It’s a break for renters in being able to find better deals on apartments than they would have in the past,” he said.

The latest survey — 13th in a series — is based on 381 responses, which is second only to the September survey with 392. The Survey of Emerging Market Conditions is the only Florida-centered survey of leaders and professional advisers in the real estate industry. In previous surveys, the investment outlook for various types of properties had remained steady.