UF professors: Florida primary pivotal in race for GOP presidential nod

January 20, 2012

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — As South Carolina holds its primary Saturday to choose a Republican presidential nominee, all eyes turn to Florida as the next destination for speeches and votes.

Stephen Craig, a University of Florida political science professor, said Florida’s large number of delegates makes it an important state to win. It is also crucial because of its diverse population, making it representative of the population of the national electorate, he said.

Florida’s Jan. 31 primary may also serve as a tiebreaker if two or more candidates are still closely ranked after the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

“This year, however, it may serve effectively to anoint Romney as the Republican nominee,” Craig said. “That assumes, of course, that he wins South Carolina first.”

Daniel A. Smith, another UF political science professor, believes undecided voters will be a major factor in the primary election.

“Mitt Romney continues to lead the pack,” Smith said, “and Ron Paul continues to troll along in the low teens with his loyal band of Republican libertarians. The real question is whether undecided evangelical Christians will coalesce around Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.”

At this point, Craig could not assess the impact of the Florida primary on the November general election. However, he pointed out that President Barack Obama lost the Democratic primary here four years ago.

Craig can be reached at 352-273-2377 or sccraig@ufl.edu
Smith can be reached at 352-273-2346 or dasmith@ufl.edu