Terrorism and disasters no match for recession in hampering travel plans

October 12, 2010

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Fears about finances overshadow worries about terrorism, natural disasters and other factors for the nation’s travelers, a new University of Florida study shows.

Two-thirds of tourists surveyed in 2009 planned to curb trips this year because of financial worries, compared with just 5 percent who expected to pull back because of terrorism concerns, said Lori Pennington-Gray, director of UF’s Tourism Crisis Management Institute.

“In a recession, people are less likely to travel because they’re afraid if they leave their job, they might not have a job when they get back,” said Pennington-Gray, who presented her findings at a regional tourism summit in South Florida in September. “They might have seen their colleagues lose jobs, and so they feel compelled to keep on working and not take a vacation.”

Research on travel intentions is important because the tourist industry can use this information to design travel packages and programs that better meet people’s needs so it might be easier for them to get away on vacation, she said.

The global economic recession posed the greatest risk to travel plans last year, despite 2009 being full of crises, including flu scares, plane crashes and severe storms, she said.

“It was the most challenging year for tourism since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001,” Pennington-Gray said. “The range of crises and their frequency was unparalleled.”

The crises, she said, include the H1N1 swine flu outbreak; an earthquake in Costa Rica; a Continental plane crash near the airport in Buffalo, N.Y.; severe storms in Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas; the crash off the coast of Brazil of an Air France Airbus; flooding of the Red River; landslides on Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines; and the collision of a helicopter and private plane over the Hudson River in New York.

Because these crises were such a big part of the news, Pennington-Gray and a team of UF researchers decided to investigate the relationship between the travel intentions of U.S. residents and various risks. They analyzed data from a study on leisure travel behaviors and attitudes conducted by Mandala Research, a Washington, D.C., firm that conducts tourism marketing research.

The study was of a nationally representative sample of 1,048 travelers who had taken a trip in the previous 12 months that was at least 50 miles from home or required an overnight stay. The 256 respondents who reported they were not likely or were unsure about taking another trip in the next 12 months were asked what factors would impact their decision to travel, which was the focus of the UF study.

The largest number, 67 percent of respondents, reported the recession — “financial risk” — would affect their travel plans, followed by 19.1 percent who identified being “too busy” — “time risk” — and 10 percent who said “too much hassle at airports” or “functional risk.” The other travel impediments respondents reported were: concern about the H1N1 or swine flu, 7.7 percent; having no one to travel with, 7.2 percent; personal or general safety concerns, 6.2 percent; and fear of terrorism, 5.3 percent. More than one answer could be given.

Respondents were less likely to travel if they had taken trips in the past 12 months, the study found.

“This may makes sense given the financial constraints they expressed,” Pennington-Gray said. “If people have already traveled for pleasure in the past year and money is tight, then perhaps they would anticipate taking fewer trips in the next year.”

“There are advantages to taking vacations beyond the financial benefits — such as relieving stress and building family bonds — that aren’t necessarily fulfilled by doing other things,” she said. “There is a movement to stay at home and take a ‘staycation,’ but the benefits are not going to be the same as escaping your day-to-day routine.”

By focusing on the apprehensions of tourists as well as the travel industry, UF’s Tourism Crisis Management Institute can suggest ways the hospitality field might respond to make travel more appealing, Pennington-Gray said.