Professor's book provides insight to Florida politics, upcoming election

October 7, 2008

Since 1996, Florida voters have chosen to adorn the state in Republican red. With an election of firsts looming, Florida may see a first of its own in the 21st century — a democratic majority vote.

“It’s going to be a close race,” Dr. David Colburn, an emeritus professor of history and past provost for UF, said. “It will probably be comparable to the 2000 election.”

Colburn believes the Republican Party has a more solid political base in Florida but that the Democrats have succeeded in registering many new voters this year. Whether these newly registered voters come out to vote could be the deciding factor, according to Colburn.

Colburn finished writing his 13th book, “From Yellow Dog Democrats to Red State Republicans: Florida and Its Politics since 1940,” in November. The book, published by the University Press of Florida, explains how Florida changed from a strong Democratic state in the 1940s to a Republican state in the 21st century.

Three groups moving to Florida from 1970 to 2000 led state voters to switch from Democratic to Republican.

The first group moving to Florida was senior citizens. Seniors largely voted Democratic until the late 1970s after the rampant inflation of the President Carter years threatened their retirement incomes.

Following senior citizens, a Cuban population started to form in Florida in the 1960s. Cubans mostly voted Republican because they believed that the Republicans took a stronger stance against communism and, in particular, Fidel Castro.

Third, evangelicals helped initiate the change. In the late 1970s, large, fundamental churches provided a community setting for an ever-growing population. People flocked to the church to gain a sense of community that they had known growing up but could not find elsewhere in Florida. These new evangelicals favored Republicans because of their opposition of abortion and homosexuality.

By 1996, the collective weight of these three groups was obvious as the Republican Party took control of both houses of the state Legislature in Florida.

Although the Republican Party has dominated the polls in Florida for more than 10 years now, 2008 could be the
year that Democrats become competitive once again.

Seeing the way Florida politics has changed since 1940, and explaining it to Floridians, was Colburn’s favorite part of writing the book.

More explanation may be necessary in November because Florida’s political history may need a new chapter.