GOP's edge in Florida withers

October 20, 2004

This article appeared in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Oct. 20.

By: Joshua Comenetz
Joshua Comenetz is a University of Florida geography professor.

The most notable aspect of the presidential contest is not Florida’s likely repeat performance as tiebreaker, but rather that Florida continues to shift enough toward the Democrats to be seriously in play. By all rights, Florida should be just another classically Southern, Republican-dominated state, especially given the Republican voting preferences of Cuban-Americans. History certainly suggests it: Florida has fallen to the Democrat in only three of the past 10 elections, in each case to a Southern candidate up against a fairly weak, non-Southern Republican. Before World War II, Florida was faithfully Southern in politics. When the South swung Republican after the war, so did Florida.

But migration of Democratic voters from the Northeast and Midwest steadily upset the state’s natural tilt toward the right. Now, native or Southern-born Floridians are outnumbered by those from the North or abroad — and more and more natives are the children of migrants.

That President Bush, an incumbent Southern Republican with a strong campaign, would have trouble overcoming John Kerry — a Northerner who at first glance would seem to represent everything the stereotypical South doesn’t want in the Oval Office — shows how much Florida has changed.

The changes may not be enough to swing the state for Kerry in 2004, but an incumbent or Southern Democrat should find the state more receptive in 2008 or 2012. Baby boomers are starting to retire and more immigrants will be eligible to vote.

In 2000, as happened nationally, most Florida whites chose Bush, while blacks and Jews preferred Al Gore. Latinos went two to one for Gore nationwide, but more favored Bush in Florida because of the Republican tilt of the Cuban community. Senior citizens were fairly evenly balanced.

According to recent estimates, the only significant demographic change since 2000 is that the proportion of whites in the state has eroded by about 3 percent since 2000, with a corresponding increase among blacks and Latinos. At the same time, recent polls do not reveal any striking changes in voting intentions. In-migration of more non-Cuban Latinos may help Kerry, while Bush may gain a few more Jewish votes. But the net result will be small unless turnout among the incoming Latinos is unexpectedly high.

This means that to win Florida in November, all Bush has to do is ask his Republican base to support him again, and count on name recognition. To overcome him, Kerry must energize Democratic-leaning undecided voters and boost turnout.

In coming years, however, the proportion of elderly, black and, possibly, Jewish voters will grow. Most Latino growth will occur outside the Cuban community, among Latin American and Caribbean groups not known for loyalty to the Republicans.

Growing high-tech industries and universities will draw in more highly educated people. Environmental issues such as coastal erosion, urban sprawl and water shortages will become more pressing. All these trends can work in the Democrats’ favor, as has occurred in California.

California voted for Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, but in 2004 is not seriously contested by Bush. One of the biggest surprises this year is that the outcome in Colorado, formerly a solid Republican state, is in doubt.

Even traditionally GOP-voting Nevada and Arizona are uncertain bets for the Republicans this year. No Southwestern state went Democratic between 1968 and 1988, but by the 1990s, migration had so reshaped this region that Bill Clinton won each of this year’s Southwestern swing states once.

Florida can follow the Western pattern, and it’s not the only such Southern state. Similar changes could be coming in Georgia and North Carolina, states favored by migrants and with plenty of electoral votes. Clinton won Georgia in 1992 and it’s no accident that Kerry chose a senator from North Carolina as his running mate.

Almost all of the 50 percent net population increase projected for the next half-century will occur in the South or Southwest. As electoral votes continue to head south, the Democrats have a rare opportunity to reclaim their historical territory.