UF Researchers: Migration Fuels Steady Growth To 2030 In Florida

February 11, 2003

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida will continue to grow steadily but unevenly as the state’s current population swells nearly 8 million residents to 24.4 million by 2030, according to the latest projections from the University of Florida.

“Florida’s population has grown substantially in the last dozen years,” said June Nogle, a demographer with UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “The growth will continue to be relatively steady, with each of the next three decades adding between 2.62 and 2.99 million people to the state.”

The projections are important because they help officials plan for a variety of transportation and social services needs in the future, said Nogle, whose agency works closely with the state departments of education, transportation and elder affairs.

Migration from other states and abroad is fueling about 85 percent of the expansion, she said.

In all, 33 of Florida’s 67 counties are expected to grow by 50 percent or more between 2000 and 2030, Nogle said. Flagler County, one of the state’s mid-sized counties, on the Northeast coast leads the way with 49,832 residents ballooning to 123,000, a 147 percent hike, she said.

Population changes also will be especially rapid in four other mid-sized counties: Sumter, Osceola, Collier and Walton, Nogle said. The 2030 populations of all four counties are expected to increase by 110 percent or more over their 2000 populations, she said

“They’re all a little bit different, but Flagler, Sumter and Osceola resemble one another in that they’re in the path of development,” Nogle said. “Flagler, for instance, is sandwiched between Jacksonville and Daytona, and the other two counties are in Central Florida, which is strongly impacted by the growth of Orlando. Additionally, they’ve all got good transportation networks, with I (Interstate) 95 running right through Flagler, the turnpike and I-75 in Sumter and I-4 in Osceola.”

Although not expected to lead in percentage increases, counties with large urban areas – Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach in South Florida, Orange surrounding Orlando and Tampa’s Hillsborough – should add the largest numbers of new Floridians, she said.

Broward is expected to add 859,000 residents – an increase of 53 percent between 2000 census and 2030 – followed closely by Miami-Dade at 849,000, a 38 percent rise, Nogle said. Palm Beach, Orange and Hillsborough each should add at least a half million residents, she said.

In contrast, 18 widely scattered counties more distant from urban centers should add fewer than 10,000 residents, she said.

Liberty, Jefferson and Lafayette counties are forecast to grow by less than 3,000 between 2000 and 2030, Nogle said, or 28 percent, 21 percent and 3 percent respectively. “They’re Panhandle counties that aren’t close enough to nearby metropolitan areas to get spillover growth,” she said.

The counties of Monroe, including Key West; Gadsden in the Panhandle; and the populous Pinellas, in which St. Petersburg is located, are each expected to grow by less than 20 percent, she said.

Tourism is one reason Monroe and Pinellas counties are not expected to grow as fast as many other counties despite having plenty of new construction, Nogle said.

“Tourism detracts from the housing available for permanent residents,” she said. “More and more of the space is taken up by hotels, resorts, time-shares and seasonal rentals.”

Collier and Walton, located on the attractive Gulf coast, also are expected to grow rapidly, she said, at growth rates of 120 percent and 111 percent respectively.

Although not among the top counties, growth is expected to be strong in Alachua County. Its population is forecast to increase by 17 percent from 2000 to 2010 due in part to projected increases in students at UF, she said. The projection takes in into account possible enrollment caps the university may consider in an effort to deal with expected budget cuts.