New UF Research Shows Florida To Grow More Rapidly Over Long Term

March 13, 2002

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida’s population will grow faster than expected thanks to more accurate census counts, according to the latest projections from the University of Florida.

“Previously, we predicted Florida’s total population would reach 23 million by 2030,” said June Nogle, a demographer with UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Now we’re projecting 24.5 million, an increase of 1.5 million, which over a 30-year period may not seem like much, but it will be noticeable.”

That estimate is a 53 percent increase over Florida’s population of 15.9 million in 2000. Growth will be relatively steady, with each of the three decades adding between 2.7 and 2.9 million people to the state, Nogle said.

Florida should replace New York as the third-largest state by 2024, she said.

The population projections are higher because they are based on the more accurate 2000 census, which missed fewer people than the 1990 count, she said.

“After 1970 the quality of the U.S. population census got progressively worse,” Nogle said. “Then while planning for the 2000 census, there was a professional and congressional mandate to improve the quality of the census. A public relations campaign followed to increase public awareness about the importance of filling out census forms, and it really did the trick.”

Broward County in south Florida is expected to have the largest population increase, growing by 940,000 people over the next 30 years, while the Panhandle’s Franklin County is expected to have the smallest, adding less than 3,000 residents, she said.

In terms of total population, Miami-Dade County will continue to lead the state and is expected to top three million people by 2025, Nogle said. Broward, Palm Beach, Orange and Hillsborough round out the top five counties, she said.

Migration from other states is expected to account for more than 85 percent of Florida’s growth over the next three decades, as it has during the past 20 years.

“In many counties, migration is the only reason they grow at all because there are more deaths than births,” Nogle said. “Pinellas County is the most obvious example. In the last year, they had 3,000 more deaths than births.”

Other counties experiencing this trend, all with large numbers of retirees, are Charlotte, Citrus, Pasco, Sarasota and Volusia.

Population growth is expected to be especially rapid in some of Florida’s mid-sized counties.

Flagler is projected to grow from 49,832 residents in 2000 to more than 118,000 in 2030, a 137 percent increase and the sharpest jump of any Florida county.

Flagler County’s desirable location has made it the fastest growing for years, Nogle said. It is sandwiched between two metropolitan areas – Jacksonville to the north, and Daytona Beach to the south – making it accessible to commuters, she said. It also has cheaper real estate prices than other coastal communities.

High growth also is predicted for Collier (Naples), St. Johns (St. Augustine), and Sumter and Osceola (Orlando) counties because of their locations on the fringes of metropolitan areas, Nogle said. All four are projected to increase by 95 percent or more over their 2000 populations.

Florida has low-growth areas as well. Franklin, Liberty, Lafayette and Jefferson counties in the Panhandle each are projected to add fewer than 3,000 people to their populations by 2030, she said.

Monroe, Gadsden and Jefferson Counties are projected to grow the slowest, increasing less than 20 percent by 2030.

“Except for Monroe, they’re sleepy, quiet, out-of-the-way rural counties, but they may take off – eventually,” Nogle said.

Monroe County has some large population centers, such as Key West, but it is getting fewer permanent residents as utility hookup and building records show more property being purchased for seasonal and vacation use, she said.

Monroe was the state’s slowest-growing county between 1990 and 2000, adding only 1,500 people.