UF Researcher: Citizen Initiatives May Determine Tight Presidential Race

October 31, 2000

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Tuesday’s presidential election may not hinge on the candidates at all but instead on a few ballot measures in a handful of states dealing with hot button issues such as vouchers, animal rights and gay marriage, says a University of Florida researcher.

“In a few key states, particularly in the Northwest and in Michigan, these ballot questions could influence whether or not liberals or conservatives come to the polls that day and which presidential candidate they vote for,” said UF political science student David Schecter, whose doctoral dissertation focuses on presidential and congressional elections between 1976 and 1996.

States with initiatives and referendums that excite different kinds of voters have higher levels of turnout than states without them, a possible deciding factor in a tight national race, Schecter found.

In the battleground state of Michigan, as well as in Oregon, the type of initiatives that are on Tuesday’s ballot support conservative causes and are likely to mobilize conservatives, favoring Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush, Schecter said. Arizona and, to a smaller extent, Ohio have measures that may draw liberal voters, who stand to boost the chances of Democratic rival Al Gore, said Schecter, who also is a visiting professor at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.

Initiatives allow residents or legislators to place issues on the ballot for a statewide vote as an alternative to having all decisions made by the legislature. For his study, Schecter compared voter turnout rates of 24 states that permit initiatives with the remaining 26 states that do not, analyzing numerous factors including union membership, a state’s political culture and whether other races were on the ballot.

Schecter’s results contradict other studies suggesting that initiatives dampen enthusiasm by inundating voters with too many complex and potentially irrelevant questions. Morality issues, such as those concerning abortion rights, animal rights, gambling and vouchers, which often are used to pay for religious schools, tend to bring more voters to the polls than nonmorality issues, he said.

Michigan, a prize state with 18 electoral votes, has a ballot measure that would allow school vouchers, a position Bush advocates and Gore opposes, Schecter said. If the measure’s backers succeed in getting large numbers of their supporters to the polls, it is likely they will cast their presidential vote for Bush, he said.

Gore also may be hurt by ballot measures in Washington and Oregon that would ban animal traps and poison, likely bringing out a large constituency of animal rights supporters, Schecter said. These people could throw their support behind the more liberal Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, siphoning off votes that might otherwise go to Gore, while the states’ large hunting population would be inclined to support Bush, he said.

In what could be a “double-whammy,” Schecter said, Gore also may lose votes from potential moderates who support gun rights because of an initiative on the Oregon ballot requiring background checks for purchases at gun shows. The National Rifle Association, a frequent supporter of the Republican Party, is trying hard to defeat the measure, he said.

However, an English-only measure on the Arizona state ballot that would outlaw bilingual education should help Gore, Schecter said.

“Because these types of ballot questions are similar to affirmative action, they bring out heavier minority voting than normal, which favors the Democrats,” he said. “Had supporters of a Florida initiative to ban affirmative action been successful in getting it on the November ballot, it could have seriously damaged George Bush’s chances in that state.”

Some swing states have no initiatives on the ballot. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota, for example, do not allow initiatives, and Illinois, which does, has none this time.

Elsewhere, a Nevada initiative outlawing same-sex marriages could draw conservatives to the polls, while another measure legalizing marijuana for medicinal purposes could attract liberals, Schecter said. In Ohio, an initiative authorizing the state to pay for environmental protection could help Gore slightly, he said.