UF Economists: Florida Consumer Confidence Nearly Erases Recent Loss

May 27, 1999

GAINESVILLE — Consumer confidence in Florida regained three points in May from the previous month, reflecting renewed faith in both the national economy and personal finances, University of Florida economists report.

The preliminary index for May rose to 106, recovering three of the four points it lost in April, said Chris McCarty, survey director with UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

“Higher gasoline prices and mortgage rates are not worrying Floridians a bit,” said UF economist Dave Denslow. “Other prices remain steady, jobs seem secure, the stock market refuses to tumble, and almost everyone expects the good times to keep coming. Particularly striking is that senior residents, those age 60 and older, who have experienced many recessions, are the ones most confident about the economy over the coming year.”

Both the survey component measuring consumers’ perceptions of national economic conditions and personal financial health during the next year climbed six points in May.

“The dip in consumer confidence in April was primarily among women and those making less than $30,000 annually,” McCarty said. “In May those with lower incomes are now at the same level of confidence as March. While confidence among women rose somewhat, it is still four points below March.”

The component measuring whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items has remained stable for the past three months at 124, McCarty said. Many economists use this single component to predict trends in retail sales, he said.

The bureau conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for May was calculated from 434 responses. The margin of error for the index is 4 percent.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring consumers’ mood toward buying. Although other economic indicators also are predictors of buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner than those indicators.