UF Economists: Florida Consumer Confidence Hits New Record High

March 2, 1999

GAINESVILLE — Consumer confidence in Florida soared last month to the highest point in the 15-year history of the index, partly because of strong optimism among women about U.S. business conditions, University of Florida economists report.

The preliminary index for February rose four points since January to 108, said Chris McCarty, survey director with UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. It climbed seven points in a single month, from December to January.

“It’s normal to see a slight dip in confidence in December with a recovery in January, but the size of this jump is unusual,” McCarty said. “Optimism seems to be significantly higher among women, but we don’t know exactly why. Is it due to the end of the presidential impeachment trial? We don’t know. It does seem to be linked to perceptions about U.S. business conditions, and this is not out of line considering people’s confidence in the stock market.”

Perceptions about national economic conditions over the next year skyrocketed 23 points between December and February, a huge jump, McCarty said.

“We’re surprised by this large jump in perceptions of business conditions over the short term and a little skeptical as to why Florida is booming compared to the nation,” he said. “Much of the rise appears to be coming from increased optimism in southeast Florida, including Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach, as well as among women.”

Between December and January, there was a big hike in confidence among women, the first time in a long time that their level matched that of men’s, McCarty said. These and other gains in the index components appear to cross age and income lines, he said.

The bureau conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for February was calculated from 508 responses. Numbers for prior months are based on about 1,000 residents. The margin of error for the index is 3 percent.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring consumers’ mood toward buying. Although other economic indicators also are predictors of buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner than those indicators.

Nationally, the Conference Board announced a 3.2 point increase in its index in February. Most of the increase nationally was due to optimism about present, rather than expected, conditions.