UF Researchers: Birth Rate Decline Helps Slow State Population Growth

March 6, 1998

GAINESVILLE — A decline in births as baby boomers age is helping to slow down the boom in Florida’s population growth, a new University of Florida study finds.

There were 10,000 fewer births in the Sunshine State in 1996 than in 1990, when large numbers of baby boomers were having children, said June Nogle, a demographer with UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

“We’ve all heard how overcrowded many of the state’s elementary and middle schools are,” said Nogle, who did the study. “Those children are children of baby boomers. Now, baby boomers are reaching the age where most of their childbearing is done. They’re raising families rather than adding to their families.”

A new set of projections suggests Florida will grow at a slower pace during the next 22 years than it did during the last quarter century, when its population more than doubled from 6.8 million to 14.7 million, Nogle said.

Still, UF demographers predict the state will be home to 20.4 million residents in 2020, an increase of 39 percent over 1997.

Also slowing Florida’s population expansion is a decline in out-of-state residents of all ages moving to the state, Nogle said. Accounting for part of this is a dip in the number of people approaching retirement age, a group that traditionally fuels migration to Florida, because of a corresponding dip in the national birth rate during the 1930s.

“People turning 65 in 1998 were born in 1933 during the Great Depression, a time when many families were postponing having children until the economy improved,” she said.

By comparison, many retirees moved to Florida in the late 80s and early 90s were from the relatively large birth boom of the 1920s, she said.

And, in a twist of fortunes, a strong national economy is keeping younger job-seekers in their home states, Nogle said.

“With the national picture so bright, there is less impetus for younger people to move to certain regions of the country that have strong economies,” she said. “In the past, people might have moved to Florida to find work. Now, even if they decide to move, the state’s job market has increasing competition from Georgia, North Carolina and other states in the Southeast.”

In terms of the state’s counties, Flagler is projected to experience the sharpest population growth during the next 22 years. It is expected to grow from 41,000 in 1997 to nearly 85,000 by 2020, a 106 percent increase, Nogle said.

“We’re seeing strong growth on both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, and Flagler County is an area, in particular, that hasn’t been well developed,” she said. “As people look for places to live with lots of amenities, especially on the coast, Flagler County, with its location halfway between Jacksonville and Daytona Beach, is the next logical spot for development.”

Osceola, Gilchrist, Wakulla and Collier also are projected for fast-paced growth. By 2020, all four counties are expected to increase by 75 percent or more over their 1997 populations, Nogle said.

Generally, these counties are experiencing the “neighborhood effect,” growing as nearby counties with metropolitan areas expand, Nogle said. For example, Gilchrist County may attract newcomers who want to live near Gainesville but away from the metropolitan area or people who already live in Alachua County but want more space, she said.

In terms of sheer numbers, the greatest population increase of any Florida county is predicted for Dade County, the state’s largest. The UF forecast calls for it to expand by about 517,000 people by 2020, followed by Broward, with 503,000. Palm Beach, Orange and Hillsborough round out the top five counties with the largest projected population increases, with all three expected to grow by at least 300,000 people by 2020.

“Because these places are so large to begin with, they’re going to have a large number of births and be attractive to migrants who have heard of the area,” Nogle said.

The five slowest growing counties during the next 22 years are projected to be Hardee, Taylor, Pinellas, Holmes and Bradford.