County Projections of Economic Activity To The Year 2010

July 22, 1996

County level economic forecasts to 2010 have been released by the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR).

Flagler, Hernando, Glades, Osceola and Charlotte counties will have the fastest growing economies in Florida over the next 15 years according to projections prepared by the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Job growth in these counties will range from 3.7 to 5.0 percent per year (Table 1). The fastest growing counties over the previous 15 years were Osceola, Flagler, Hernando, Lafayette and Collier. These projections, along with further projections and analysis, appear in the Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 1996: State and Counties, an annual publication of the Bureau.

Bradford, Holmes, Madison, Taylor and Washington will be the slowest growing counties over the next 15 years. Job growth in these counties will range from 0.5 to 0.9 percent per year. Over the previous 15 years the slowest growing counties were Hamilton, Taylor, Gadsden, Jefferson and Dade.

Job growth rates largely reflect expected population growth, although commuting patterns complicate the picture for some counties. In addition, special events such as the opening of a state prison or the closure of a phosphate mine also affect the projections, particularly for the smaller counties.

All but eight counties in northern Florida and one county in south Florida will grow at an equal or faster percentage rate than the nation during the next fifteen years. Of those whose employment growth rate is slower than that of the U.S., six–Calhoun, Hardee, Jackson, Taylor, Madison and Holmes–also will have a slower population growth rate than the U.S. Bradford, Liberty and Washington grow at a slower rate than the U.S. partly because of an unusually large job gain in the base year, 1995.

In terms of absolute job growth, Orange, Broward, Hillsborough, Dade and Palm Beach will gain the most jobs over the next 15 years (Table 2). Job growth in these counties will range from 188 thousand to 231 thousand jobs. These counties reported the largest job gains 1980-95.

Over the next 15 years, Lafayette, Liberty, Holmes, Bradford and Calhoun counties will gain the fewest jobs. The growth in these counties will range from 300 to 600 jobs. Hamilton, Glades, Jefferson, Lafayette, Calhoun, Liberty, and Taylor counties added the fewest jobs over the last 15 years.

Palm Beach will have the highest standard of living in 2010. The average household there will receive an income of $101,309 (adjusted for inflation). Dixie county will have the lowest standard of living: $34,690. In order to attract and retain workers in more populous counties, employers must pay higher wages. Partly this compensates workers for the higher crime, congestion, pollution and cost of living in such counties. When counties of similar size are compared, the range of incomes is much smaller. In 2010 average household income in large metropolitan counties (those with a population of 500,000 or more) will range from $62,475 to $101,309. In rural counties (those with no city of more that 2,499 persons) incomes will range from $34,690 to $61,592. Table 3 ranks real average household income by four county types (large metropolitan, small metropolitan, nonmetropolitan but urban, and rural).