Impending Graduation Leads Seniors To Brace For The Worst

April 30, 1996

GAINESVILLE — As college graduates across America collect their diplomas, chances are they are not optimistic about their job prospects, says a new study appearing in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

“As graduation approaches, college seniors become less optimistic about the starting salary of their first job and begin bracing themselves for the worst,” says the author, James Shepperd, an associate professor of psychology at the University of Florida.

“In general, people are quite optimistic in their predictions for the future, perceiving that good things are more likely and bad things are less likely to happen to them,” said Shepperd.

But three separate studies by Shepperd show that, as events draw near, people move from optimism to accuracy and then to pessimism in their predictions.

In the first study, college sophomores, juniors and seniors estimated their likely salary at their first full-time job after graduation. Only seniors became less optimistic as graduation approached.

“We split the senior class into two groups: those who were and those who were not seeking jobs,” Shepperd said. “As graduations neared, seniors who were actively searching for a job grew more pessimistic about their starting salary. Seniors who were not seeking jobs after graduation continued to be optimistic about what they would make.”

In the second study, students estimating their exam score had an optimistic view of their grade a month before the exam. As the exam grew closer, they exchanged the optimistic view for a more accurate view of the outcome. At the moment of truth, students succumbed to a pessimistic view as they braced for the worst, Shepperd said.

People become more pessimistic about feedback in order to brace themselves for disappointment, he said.

“We try to minimize disappointment by predicting the worst.”

Self-esteem is a factor in determining students’ outlooks as well, the study shows. High self-esteem individuals have a style directed toward garnering approval and enhancing self-esteem. Low self-esteem individuals are characterized by a cautious, protective style directed toward avoiding social disapproval and protecting identity.

The third study revealed how students with low self-esteem more readily lowered their performance estimates than people with high self-esteem in anticipation of receiving evaluation on their performance.

There are some benefits to bracing for the worst, Shepperd said.

“A bad outcome is far less unpleasant if it is expected than if it is unexpected. Moreover, if things turn out better than predicted, then you are pleasantly surprised,” he said.

Shepperd said there is an important take-home message from his research, which was conducted with Julie Fernandez from the University of Houston and Judith Ouellette of Iowa State University.

“It’s best,” he said, “to predict that you won’t get the promotion or to overestimate the cost of the car repairs just before hearing the news from your boss or your mechanic.”